Pakistan Elections 2008: Will They? Won’t They?

Posted on February 11, 2008
Filed Under >Adil Najam, Politics
27 Comments
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Adil Najam

Yesterday, while passing through Chicago airport on my way to Tokyo, Japan, I found myself transfixed by a wall full of posters announcing that Chicago is an “Applicant City” for the 2016 Olympics.

The airport was full of them but, frankly, the posters themselves are not remarkable.

They became remarkable for me Chicago Olympics 2018because of the thoughts they triggered in my mind regarding Pakistan’s upcoming elections. It is, in fact, remarkable that Chicago and the rest of the world is sure that there will be Olympics held in the year 2016 (8 years or some 3000+ days from today). Not only are people sure that they would be held, people are making serious investments of time, money and effort based on the belief that they would. And, indeed, if I were to bet I would bet that they would.

And, then, there are these elections in Pakistan. Supposedly they are to be held in just a week. 7 days. And yet, it is not fully clear whether they would, in fact, be held on schedule. After all, there have been schedules before, but no elections (remember, we even had a poll on whether they would be held in 2007)!

Frankly, if I were to bet I would (at this point) bet that they would, indeed, be held on schedule. But the odds are still not as strong as for the 2018 Olympics.

With the ANP political rally being bombed, noises about postponements, a severe lack of trust in anything that the Musharraf government says, immense trepidation amongst the political parties, continuing clampdown on civil society, the lingering shocks of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, and a general air of societal unease and despondent uncertainty all over the country, I am not surprised that the most common question that I have been asked by journalists recently is whether the elections will be held on time or not.

Its not just the uncertainty of whether elections will happen? Nor even what might happen in the elections, but also that of what might happen after the elections; irrespective of what the results may be. One follows the news from Kenya with a grave sense of foreboding these days. A sense of nervousness borne out of unbearable uncertainty.


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I am not surprised, but I am annoyed. But I am not annoyed at the journalists, I am annoyed at the question. At the fact that it is, in fact, a fair question. That it is a fair question is what makes it troubling. The uncertainty that this question reflects is a fact of what Pakistan has become today. A place where we cannot be certain of anything. Where you wake up every morning not knowing what might have happened overnight or could happen today.

This uncertainly is not just uncomfortable, it is costly. I have not done the math, but no matter how you count, this uncertainty has to be expensive. How do you plan for anything? What is the cost to business of not knowing what might happen in 7 days, or even one? What is the cost to governance? To citizens? The cost of angst? The cost of anguish? The cost of just not knowing where things are heading? And most importantly, the cost of the feeling that you have little to no control over where they will head!

As I have already stated above, I think the elections are likely to be held this time. The domestic pressure and the international scrutiny is too high for them not to. I also believe that Olympics will, in fact, be held in 2018.The difference is that the first is a statement of hope; a likely probability at best. The second is a statement of certainty.

Living with such uncertainty cannot possibly be good. It cannot be good for citizens, it cannot be good for business, it cannot be good for politicians, and it certainly cannot be good for society. The tragedy of it all is that even if we have elections in 7 days, the uncertainty will not really disappear.

27 responses to “Pakistan Elections 2008: Will They? Won’t They?”

  1. AF Ahmad says:

    Actually there will be Olympics both in 2016 and 2018. The Winter Olympics in 2018 are almost certain. Almost, because global warming may have something to say about that.

  2. Awesome writeup – its true the level of uncertainty is far unsettling for the nation. I hope all goes well

    Stay safe people

  3. readinglord says:

    I wonder why bother about elections when the ‘Mother of Dhaandlies’ has already taken place which has subverted the elections to just a farce. We should better think about the fate of the state of ‘Pakistan’ which itself is in jeopardy.

  4. zia m says:

    It ain’t over till The Fat Lady(Mush) sings.

  5. Umar Akbar says:

    Who would have thought that the time would come, when Mr Asif Ali Zardari would be the top contender for the office of Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan?

    Pakistan People’s Party once again in charge of all public funds and expenditures and of all import and export dealings and privatisation campaigns and foreign currency reserves? The very thought makes me shudder.

    Our state-funded and state-sponsored politicians have made a multitude of scary mistakes, time and time again, but the NRO would have to take the prize for the ‘mother of all blunders’.

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