According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
“Terms of Surrender” by Irfan Husain – Dawn 02-21-09
http://tinyurl.com/ap7tsp
Allama Iqbal on this situation:
deen-e-kafir fikro tadbeer’e jihad
deen-e-mullah fi sabil-illah fasad
After following the above story in the wider media for days, it is hard to guess what to make of this deal.
On one hand my heart goes out to the people of Swat, who were murdered, maimed and terrorized for weeks by the very militants to whom they have been turned over to by the state, on the other hand one sees pictures of cheering civilians in Mingora and elsewhere, welcoming Sufi Mohammad and the peace that he has promised.
While the events have clearly demonstrated the inability of the state of Pakistan to end the insurgency by force, the Swat deal has raised several very important questions:
1. How much popular support did the state and its armies have in the current battle in Swat and it has in its larger war against the Taliban?
2. How united and committed are the organs of the state; its army, its political leadership and the common people in the current climate of a low intensity conflict, both inside and outside Pakistan?
3. How much political will and commitment does the current Pakistani leadership have to the country? What conclusion should one draw when the heads of some of its largest political parties (and till recently it
Any army should:
(1) fight and win,
but in case of difficulty
(2) retreat and surrender.
So, Dear Mike
You should accept that Pakistan Army has at least the 2nd quality!! It is not so bad after all!!!
I know many people have expressed similar apprehension, but this really is worrying news. If it does succeed in bringing some semblance of peace, that will be the only redeeming feature. But if this leads to stopping girls from going to school, stopping (or highly restricting) the movement of women, ban on shaving and other absurdities in the name of religion, then that will be a real tragedy for Pakistan.