Adil Najam
Our second blog poll seems to have thrown up some interesting, but also confusing, results.
Depending on how you cut the pie, you can make the argument that:
(a) a clear majority of ATP readers want Gen. Musharraf to give up both or one of his twin offices (Army Chief and President) before the 2007 elections,
and at the same time
(b) a clear (but differently configured) majority wants him to play some role – although a more constrained role – in Pakistan’s politics.
(Click image for larger picture)
A total of 114 ATP visitors cast their votes in the poll which was launched very early on Friday and closed very late on Monday. While this is obviously NOT a scientific survey, the results are rather intriguing, even if not representative.
The ATP Poll gave readers five options in response to the question:
The option that got the most votes (41 votes; 36%) calls on Gen. Musharraf to retire at the end of 2006 and fully hand over both offices to his successors. While this was not an absolute majority, it is well over a third of all the votes cast in the poll. By comparison, only 19 of the 114 respondents (16.7%) preferred the option of Gen. Musharraf continuing in both offices simultaneously.
Just over a quarter of the ATP respondents (30 votes; 26.3%) want Gen. Musharraf to continue in only one of the two offices. There seems relatively little enthusiasm for passing the decision on whetehr he shoudl keep both offices or not to the next Assembly (15 votes, 13.2%) or of holding a national referendum (9 votes, 7.9%).
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. However, the results are interesting nonetheless; at least to the extent that they say something about the cohort that is likely to visit a blog such as ATP and vote in such a poll (i.e., educated, mobile, technically savvy, and globally connected Pakistanis).
While one must caution against over-analyzing these results, at least three points are worth noting; if only to nudge a discussion:
- Given that the technocratic classes tend to support (and be highly represented in) military governments in Pakistan including this one, it is noteworthy that ATP’s (technocratic?) readership chose the ‘retirement option’ (36%) for Gen. Musharraf as often as it did.
- There seems to be a sense that Gen. Musharraf should NOT continue with twin-offices into the future. Only one-sixth of the respondents (16.7%) chose this option. While those who opted for a referendum option or having the next Assembly decide (total 21.2%) may be seen as sitting on the fence on this question, those calling for his retiring from at least one office (and possibly both) were in a clear majority (total 62.3%).
- Not withstanding the above, and in fairness, it should also be noted that a majority of the respondents do, in fact, see (want?) some continued role for Gen. Musharraf — if not in both offices, then in at least one. This finding does not contradict the earlier finding; it only adds nuance (and possibly confusion).
So, where does all of this leave us? Maybe I was onto something when I had responded to a questioner in Washington DC by suggesting that public opinion amongst Pakistanis remains divided and uncertain on the future of Gen. Musharraf.
Maybe what these numbers suggest is that those responding to our poll see a continued role for Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan politics; but they would like to see him having less of a role than he has had in the past (also see earlier ATP post on democracy in Pakistan).
What do you think?
Who else could have put it in better words then our own Shair-e-Awam Jalib
For Ayub (self proclaimed Field Marshal)
“Deep jiska mehlaat hi main jaley
Chund logon ki khusion ko le kar chaley
Wo jo saey main har maslehat ke palay
Aisey dastoor ko subh-e-benoor ko
Main nahin maanta, main nahin manta ”
And for Zia (Mullahs called him Waliullah)
” Zulmat ko Zia, sar sar ko saba, banday ko Khuda kia likhna
Patthar ko gohar, deewar ko dar, kurgus ko huma kia likhna
Ik hashr bapa hai ghar ghar main dum ghut’ta hai gumbad-e-bedar main
Ik shakhs ke hathon muddat se ruswa hai watan dunya bhar main
Aye deedawaro is zillat ko qismat ka likha kia likhna
Zulmat ko Zia, sar sar ko saba, banday ko khuda kia likhna”
I wounder what he would have written for Busharraf, If he were alive?
in my opinion…..
mush should continue both the offices. he is an able commander and he proved so. however i feel that he needs to review the policies he is making. especially regarding americans.
Rabi, get the facts right first, Pakistan’s literacy rate is close to 50%. India has had democracy for last 60 years, there literacy rate is slightly better then ours. Do a Google search to verify the facts.
Democracy is no evil, that statement just shows your ignorance. Democratic countries are the most progressive nations in todays world. Look at the European nations or as a mater of fact take muslim countries like Malaysia or Turkey. Suicide bombing is a different story, nothing to do with Pakistan. Most suicide bombers are not even Pakistani born, may be some of them have Pakistani parents.
People who flew planes in WTC were not Pakistani. Tamil tigers are not Pakistani, Hamas is not Pakistani. Military has always been invloved in our politics, even under democratic governments, Kargil was brought upon us by Musharraf when Nawaz was prime minister. They don’t let the democratic government complete their term. Now they have a puppet democracy, they changed prime minister from Jamali to Shaukat Aziz, why do they make a mockery of democracy, why all this drama.
I agree nawaz and benazir did rape the country, but the army has raped our economy just check the budget allocated for Army. You can’t blame people for countries misfortune. Bhutto was not responsible for raping and murdering fellow bengali muslim brothers, this heinous crimes were done by army people. Its really sad that they hung Bhutto, Pakistan was progressing at the time of Z Bhutto. People din’t wanted Bhutto to be hung, it was army who wanted to hang him. We lost 1965 war because of Ayub. Dictator is a dictator, he is not a representative of the people. What about the rigging referendum at the time of ZIA, Musharraf is doing exactly the same things that Ayub did, Yayeh did Zia did.
Pakistan’s corruption rate has increased after the 99 coup here read more http://www.dawn.com/2006/12/10/top4.htm
I can keep on going, typing the evils of Zia, but try to do some research yourself. Wikipedia is a very good source.
He was not saving our Ass, but his own ass too. Imagine if we would have got bombed, would he been a dictator in power then, war is fought between armies, America would have bombed Pak army not people.
Rabi i wish to write more but I don’t want to flood this blog. I hope you got the point. Again you are entitled to your opinion.
And do you actually honestly think democracy in Pakistan is a good thing? How can 90% illiterate people make a decision for the benefit of the country after weighing in considerable facts?
You already have Pakistani suicide bombers roaming the world as well as other terrorists and they have all come from blind faith.
To me democracy in Pakistan is the evil. Blind Faith is evil. Mullahism is evil.
Now let’s ponder over a few things shall we, yes the army under some regimes (Zia) have been bad but everyone does conveniently forget the good times Pakistan has enjoyed across the board (Ayub). Times that are better than any other civilian government has had. You must realise that there has been times that the military has HAD to get involved. Not because they wanted to but because our democratic civilians did such a good job of sticking the country on the course of destruction (both Bhuttos and Nawaz Sharif).
As for Yahya he was there as an interm to make sure the most fairest election in Pakistan was held, what happened the Bengalis won and Bhutto threw a hissyfit. Tosser lost us East Pakistan so its good that Zia hung him. It’s just a shame that Zia was bad and then you had 10 years of your so called democracy take place between 1988 and 1998. That turned out REALLY good as we had two different leaders literaly rape our country.
Now Musharraf isn’t the best, history will always dictate that it is Ayub (so far) but he is much better than any we’ve had since Ayub. FACT is that we would have been bombed had Musharraf not been there, if this is a fact that you deny then your more disillusioned than the poor saps who hang by every word of Mullahism.
Dude ! only when Musharraf will leave you will know of his evils as we know about Zia, Ayub, Yahyeh, Iskindar Mirza. What is that Musharraf had done that a democratically elected peoples government would have not done. He is still a dictator, why all this drama about democracy. Fake prime minister Shaukat Aziz, asskissing chauhdries. Pakistan Army eats up all our budget. How much of Pakistan is feudalism? Sorry my friend Rabi you are just ignorant of the fact 160 million people live in Pakistan, only 10 percent of population lives in these tribal areas, only some parts of peshawar and some parts of Balochistan. Makran and Gawadar are the bigger cities of Balochistan and have a population more then that of the areas which are controlled by sardars why is there no development there. These areas are not even controlled by Sardars. More Pakistani have died and disappeared in Musharraf Presidennce then in any other. Is Pakistan a secure place to live now. He has further divided the country then it was. Why is PAK ARMY the lesser evil?