Adil Najam
Since yesterday the “I” word – impeachment – has begun to be thrown around a lot.
Some quarters seem to think that it just happen this time. Others suggest that it is more talk than action and the numbers needed to pull this are still not there.
Coming out of the “critical” Nawaz Sharif-Asif Zardari meetings one keeps wondering how much of this is an effort to keep the coalition going and how much is a real push to change the essential political equations of Pakistan. There are reports that Gen. Musharraf is taking this move seriously enough to cancel his trip to China (to attend the Olympics opening ceremony). On the other hand some of Gen. Musharraf’s supporters are claiming that no such cancellation has happened. We do know, however, that he is taking this challenge seriously and lining up his supporters.
All in all, there is too much noise to say what is happening. But something is clearly happening. Does the PPP-PML(N) have the numbers they need to go ahead? Does the President have the numbers he needs to stop it? And what of all the external actors and where they may lean, why and for what?
Interestingly, we had run a ATP Poll back in June asking you what you thought would have happened to Gen. Musharraf by October 2008? The majority (38%) had thought that he would be impeached by then. A significant number (31%) thought that by October 2008 we woudl be still muddling through as we are now.
We do not intend to open the Poll again, but it does seem that either of those two answers could turn out to be true again. Indeed, even our earlier Poll on the subject, from October 2007, may still be relevant in its results!
So, since we can’t make full sense of exactly what all of this adds up to, we thought we woudl ask our best source: You. What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
Pakistan
There appears to be almost the same message being posted in support of Mush over and over again. I request the administrators to crackdown on posters who are doing this. Let this forum remain a serious place for discussion.
Ironically enough, the thrust in that regularly repeated comment goes as follows:
Pakistan’s major problems: economy/inflation, terrorism, law and order, food and energy crises.
Then the person goes on to ask “is Mush’s impeachment or the restoration of the CJ really going to solve these problems?”
One can turn around and rephrase this as follows:
Pakistan’s major problems: economy/inflation, terrorism, law and order, food and energy crises.
Is saving Mush’s Kursi and back side (even if it means destroying the judiciary) and keeping the CJ out (even though it will deal a blow to accountability) going to solve these problems?
Also, Ayaz Amir has the following article today, which is worth reading:
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=128 848
This appears to be a PR stunt and it’s far from clear whether they even have the required numbers to pull it off. For the last 4 months, Zardari has been avoiding impeachment, so what has suddenly changed now? Is there any good reason to believe that he is serious this time?
Points to note:
1. The impeachment clause in the constitution refers to a legitimate president and that is why a two-thirds majority is required. It’s not clear whether the coellission has the required numbers, but more importantly, resorting to this clause amounts to treating Musharraf as a legally elected president.
2. The other alternative would have been to restore the judiciary streight away and challange his legality in the restored court. That way, a two-thirds majority would not have been required.
3. It seems that the judiciary’s issue is being deliberately sidelined. If Musharraf gets replaced by a Salman Taseer like person, it won’t be an improvement. The restoration of the judiciary is the main issue, and not the replacement of Musharraf by another bad president.
4. Also note that the only legal candidate during the presidential election was Justice Wajihuddin. But the PPP will never want to make him president. They will try to install their own man in the presidency.
5. Celebration would be a mistake. It’s quite possible that the impeachment attempt will fail due to the lack of required numbers. In that case, Zardari will go around claiming that he tried but what can he do about the numbers? He will then link it with the judges’ issue and say that he wants to restore them, but just like he doesn’t have the numbers to impeach Musharraf, he doesn’t have the required strength to restore the judiciary or some other such excuse. And in the unlikely scenario that Musharraf does get impeached, then expect a PPP installed president but no restoration of the judiciary. This will mean a government without any checks and balances, which is not something to celebrate.
In short, this move appears to be a gimick to improve the image of Zardari and the PPP since it has taken a battering due to their unwillingness to restore the judges. It is important that we do not get impressed by any such PR stunt. We must continue to press for an unconditional restoration of all the deposed judges with full suo motu powers and the ouster of Dogar and others who collaborated in the Nov 3 conspiracy.
Whenever I see Zardari and Nawaz (ZARNAWAZ) duo meeting regarding the President I cannot help but think somehow that
Bhonknay valay kuttay kata nahin kartay! (Barking Dogs do not Bite!)