Adil Najam
Over the last few days we have resisted posts about the recent political machinations in Pakistan. This is despite the fact pseudo-news pours in ever-more ferociously and ever-more sensationally from Pakistan. Literally by the hour.
This is pseudo-news not only because everything is sensationalized and exaggerated with bombastic Ministers, protesting lawyers, baton-charging policemen, and dumbstruck awam. It is pseudo-news because despite the truly historic nature of what is unfolding, there is little that anyone can seem to do about anything. Events unfold as if they were totally disconnected with public sentiment. As if all the noise is just background accompaniment. In the long run, this can never be. But that is what it seems like right now.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi. Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi.
Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.It is of little use, right now, to do yet another post on the Presidential elections or to invite people to vent the same frustrations yet again, and again, and again. Venting can be useful, but onlyto a point. Please, spare us your comments on just how good Gen. Musharraf has been for Pakistan’s economy or just how bad the military is. These points have been made too many times already in the comments, and frankly, if others have not been convinced of your viewpoint on this yet (whatever your viewpoint), then repeating it one more time will really make no difference. It will only waste our bandwidth.
Let us try, instead, to push into more analytically fertile territory. Let us try, at least, to think beyond the slogans about the even larger political questions confronting us. Barring some really big surprise, it seems a fair assumption that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President. Right now, we do not want to hear whether you think it is a good thing or not. Most of you have already made your positions on this clear already. As have we. We want to hear instead on what do you think will happen next? And why? Will things calm down or worsen? And, again, why? Why is the really important analytical question.
To assist in catalyzing such a discussion, we have devised a two part ATP Opinion Poll.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Again, and please, spare us the slogans. Give us your analysis. We understand and share the frustrations that give rise to the slogans, but let us at least try to make something better of this discussion. If you really feel like abusing and shouting, there are plenty of other places to do so. Here, lets focus on analysis. That means, the ‘why’ questions.
I watched Mush’s interview yesterday on Kamran Khan and from the tone of the interview, I gather that he doesn’t see any obstacles that can prevent him from becoming President. He says (and I think) he will remove his uniform. I think PPP will not resign and will reach an agreement with the govt. on the same day as the Presidential elections. I think this deal will involve giving even more powers to the President than currently exist. I think the Parliamentary elections will be held on time (before Jan 15th) and PML-Q, PPP & MQM will get an overwhelming majority, neutralizing all opposition for practical purposes. Current policies will continue, American support will continue and the public will take a wait-and-see approach for another couple of years.
No surprise in this update:
“Breakthrough has been reported Thursday in the talks for national consensus between government and Pakistan Peoples Party.
According to Geo News the National Reconciliation Ordinance being given final touches under which former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and all other important political leaders will be granted amnesty and all political cases registered against them will be withdrawn.
The ordinance will quash all corruption cases registered against politicians and other important persons between 1988 and 1999 period, sources said.
The law would benefit Peoples Party that would freely contest the upcoming general elections, sources further said.
PPP on its part would not quit the assemblies before the presidential election neither they would participate in the voting.
Article 58-2-B of the constitution has not been touched in the dialogue, while to resolve other issues the talks between the two sides would be continued after the presidential election, the sources added.”
By the way, the picture of Nawaz there is interesting. Your questions do not mention him but his being returned to Saudi Arabia may turn into a good thing for him. As eveyone else makes a bigger fool of themselves he will be (is being) seen as comparatively better! Not because he is good but because everyone else is much worse.
I am glad for your bringing up a new aspect of the political question. The same old is getting.
I also feel that we are in for (a) increassed political turbulance and (b) reduced Musharraf power. The new military heads will be quite for a little while but will then start putting more pressure for their own ideas. The political parties will continue to play the musical chairs game. I am not even sure if BB wil actually see her deal coming to fruit except the cases against her being dropped. But I think that is the only thing she is really intersted in.
These are very interesting question and different from usual conversation that you call naara bazi.
I think Musharraf will stay but will become more and more weak. He has made deals to extend his rule but he will be less and less powerful because everyone (now army leaders, BB, MMA, etc) will demand more and more from him.
“Passion speaks the language that reason does not follow.” Amidst the frenzy and fury of emotionalism that characterizes Pakistani politics, it would have been advisable for General Musharraf to exit from the political scene and say goodbye in a respectable and honorable manner. I guess he opted not to take that route. Barring any unforeseen circumstances (that includes the Supreme Court verdict tomorrow), Musharraf will succeed in the Oct. 06 election. What will happen afterwards is a phenomenon hard to predict. However, given the intensity of the situation, the vital signs of the Pakistani body politic points towards further anarchy. The power structures within the dynamics of politics lack the right kind of tools to pacify emotions and negotiate and reconcile with the unhappy elements. They say, ‘power corrupts, more power corrupts even more.’ Musharraf has fallen a victim to his greed to hang on to the reigns of power. The absence of rationality in the texture of his rule will probably be his worst enemy in the weeks and months to come.”Passion speaks the language that reason does not follow.” Amidst the frenzy and fury of emotionalism that characterizes Pakistani politics, it would have been advisable for General Musharraf to exit from the political scene and say goodbye in a respectable and honorable manner. I guess he opted not to take that route. Barring any unforeseen circumstances (that includes the Supreme Court verdict tomorrow), Musharraf will succeed in the Oct. 06 election. What will happen afterwards is a phenomenon hard to predict. However, given the intensity of the situation, the vital signs of the Pakistani body politic points towards further anarchy. The power structures within the dynamics of politics lack the right kind of tools to pacify emotions and negotiate and reconcile with the unhappy elements. They say, ‘power corrupts, more power corrupts even more.’ Musharraf has fallen a victim to his greed to hang on to the reigns of power. The absence of rationality in the texture of his rule will probably be his worst enemy in the weeks and months to come.
ASA,
Wrong question. It is not what we did; it is what what we didn’t do that has made us deserving of what is happening to us today.
“Never has it happened that a people have ceased to struggle and God(SWT) has not made humiliation and debasement their portion …”.
I leave you to ponder over who said this, and whether or not it applies to us today.
wats the use of poll as well..nothing will change Dictator will rule this country at any cost till death.
So, as a nation where do we stand now? nowhere. No dignity and pride, heads down, shoulders dropped and most if us are probably thinking (I know that I am) what did we do to deserve this. There will be no fair elections conducted and the same people will be elected again.
God bless Pakistan