Adil Najam
Over the last few days we have resisted posts about the recent political machinations in Pakistan. This is despite the fact pseudo-news pours in ever-more ferociously and ever-more sensationally from Pakistan. Literally by the hour.
This is pseudo-news not only because everything is sensationalized and exaggerated with bombastic Ministers, protesting lawyers, baton-charging policemen, and dumbstruck awam. It is pseudo-news because despite the truly historic nature of what is unfolding, there is little that anyone can seem to do about anything. Events unfold as if they were totally disconnected with public sentiment. As if all the noise is just background accompaniment. In the long run, this can never be. But that is what it seems like right now.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi. Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi.
Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.It is of little use, right now, to do yet another post on the Presidential elections or to invite people to vent the same frustrations yet again, and again, and again. Venting can be useful, but onlyto a point. Please, spare us your comments on just how good Gen. Musharraf has been for Pakistan’s economy or just how bad the military is. These points have been made too many times already in the comments, and frankly, if others have not been convinced of your viewpoint on this yet (whatever your viewpoint), then repeating it one more time will really make no difference. It will only waste our bandwidth.
Let us try, instead, to push into more analytically fertile territory. Let us try, at least, to think beyond the slogans about the even larger political questions confronting us. Barring some really big surprise, it seems a fair assumption that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President. Right now, we do not want to hear whether you think it is a good thing or not. Most of you have already made your positions on this clear already. As have we. We want to hear instead on what do you think will happen next? And why? Will things calm down or worsen? And, again, why? Why is the really important analytical question.
To assist in catalyzing such a discussion, we have devised a two part ATP Opinion Poll.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Again, and please, spare us the slogans. Give us your analysis. We understand and share the frustrations that give rise to the slogans, but let us at least try to make something better of this discussion. If you really feel like abusing and shouting, there are plenty of other places to do so. Here, lets focus on analysis. That means, the ‘why’ questions.
BB and Mushi on Pak Elections,
Batain yeh hasinon ki samajhta hay Qamar khoob
Nafrat wo jisay kehtay hein, nafrat bhi nahein hay
(Ustad Qamar Jalalevi ) Marhoom
Pakistan and Elections
Fasl-e-gul atay hi jalta hay nashaiman mera
Charkh ki kaundnay wali meray ghar hoti hay.
(Ustad Qamar Jalalevi (Marhum)
Qazi Hussain Ahmed certainly knows something confidential
on Sarhad parliament deal, in which corrupt Fazlurrehman
manufacturer of Taliban is mijotting with Shaikh Rasheed, to
support Mushi, as both of them have attacked now Qazi at the same time, same day on common subject.
A good article on the latest verdict in the Economist:
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.c fm?story_id=9926660&top_story=1
Pejamistri, good analysis! I heard from a source that the judiciary was split 5-5 too.
The judiciary has though weakened Musharraf. My take is that judiciary is the only winner! It control the power game now. Both Musharraf’s fate and presidential ordinance to pardon BB will be ruled on by the SC. I expect the ordinance to be challenged in the SC soon.
I don’t know if any other apex court anywhere in the world has ever rendered such an asinine judgement.
Consider that lots of voters may be voting for a candidate who was - it might turn out - not eligible to contest the Presidential election in the first place. Don’t the voters deserve to know ahead of polling if certain candidates are ineligible so they could choose to vote for someone else instead?
Is it a congenital condition that prevents us from taking the obvious - correct - decisions? Must we always insist on grabbing the nose around the ears instead of directly reaching for it?
Would the heavens have collapsed if the SC stayed the election until it could be determined who is eligible and who is not?
How long Oh Lord? Oh well …
Pejamistri,
Mistri jee, interesting comments, but wait for Rana jee
by the way, why he is always on holidays ?!!!!
I can feel the gang will have on their facees, cowdum
The Gobar.
Pejamistri. Very interesting analsyis. I do not know teh judges well enough to know if what you suggest is right. But I realy like the way you analyze things. ATP gets the best posts but also the best comments!
But do tell me this, why is a 6-4 decision not good for teh Prez but a 7-3 will be. Because 6-4 seems too close? Or becasue it seems that there are only 6 withteh govt. (the ones who had been in teh 6-2 earlier)?
Although it seems that decision is 10-0 , however you will know tomorrow that the 4 judges were in favor of staying the elections , however other 6 lured them to just stop the declaration of the result. As a matter of fact , Justice Ramday yesterday issued the remarks “It is better to stay the election then removing a sitting president” , the reason is that the other judges from Javaid Iqbal’s camp were insisting on to give a go ahead to the election but if the judgment comes against president then remove him.
Let me tell you another interesting thing Javaid Iqbal may also be playing a confusing role by siding with the Ramday camp , that would have made it 5-5 , and the other at least 4 judges would have insisted to dismiss the petition altogether on technical reason buying the arguments from Sharif ud din Peerzadah, so the situation would have been like this.
4 Judges favoring a stay order against election.
1 Judge (Justice Javaid Iqbal) tentatively siding with Ramday camp, however causing confusion.
any 4 of the remaining 5 Judges insisting on dismissing the petition altogether.
1 Judge keeping quite but opining about delaying the matter.
So now there were 5 judges on both sides with perfect confusion caused by Javaid Iqbal hence they agreed to give a unanimous decision in declaring not to announce the results, remember this option was never discussed during the arguments and I am sure it would have been brought forward by Javaid Iqbal as a quid pro quo between the two camps.
So up until now the general has won over the two floating judges namely Justice Tassadaq and Justice Jamshed. But the problem is that general does not want to get the decision 6-4 , he wants the decision in his favor as 7-3 or 8-2 , therefore he has bought time by getting himself elected on the 6th of October (remember the unofficial results will be declared) and then try to pressurize the likes of Justice Ramday, Justice Fayyaz and Justice Ghulam Rabbani etc.
Now for the future i.e. 17th October hearing it seems that CJ may through a spinner by introducing Rana Bhagwan Das into the equation, 17th october is a very intersting date Rana Bhagwan Das may return by that time as he is on 3 weeks vacation.
My intitution tells me that result is going to be in favor of General as 7-3 now where Raja Fayyaz or Ghulam Rabbani crossing the lines in the coming days.