Adil Najam
Since yesterday the “I” word - impeachment - has begun to be thrown around a lot.
Some quarters seem to think that it just happen this time. Others suggest that it is more talk than action and the numbers needed to pull this are still not there.
Coming out of the “critical” Nawaz Sharif-Asif Zardari meetings one keeps wondering how much of this is an effort to keep the coalition going and how much is a real push to change the essential political equations of Pakistan. There are reports that Gen. Musharraf is taking this move seriously enough to cancel his trip to China (to attend the Olympics opening ceremony). On the other hand some of Gen. Musharraf’s supporters are claiming that no such cancellation has happened. We do know, however, that he is taking this challenge seriously and lining up his supporters.
All in all, there is too much noise to say what is happening. But something is clearly happening. Does the PPP-PML(N) have the numbers they need to go ahead? Does the President have the numbers he needs to stop it? And what of all the external actors and where they may lean, why and for what?
Interestingly, we had run a ATP Poll back in June asking you what you thought would have happened to Gen. Musharraf by October 2008? The majority (38%) had thought that he would be impeached by then. A significant number (31%) thought that by October 2008 we woudl be still muddling through as we are now.
We do not intend to open the Poll again, but it does seem that either of those two answers could turn out to be true again. Indeed, even our earlier Poll on the subject, from October 2007, may still be relevant in its results!
So, since we can’t make full sense of exactly what all of this adds up to, we thought we woudl ask our best source: You. What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
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What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
Nawaz is woofing. He’s confirming what a moron he is.
What is happening? What might happen? And why?
If Zardari and Nawaz are foolish enough to attempt this, they’ll lose, the government’s finished, and Mush will be the boss again. The reason: the Army will never let one of its own go down this way.
Noticed the sudden belligerence of the Army? Crap happening on the Durand Line and LoC? These are the Army’s age-old signals for manufacturing conflict. Nawaz and Zardari are committing hara-kiri by even talking of impeachment, if they’re not toast already.
Time is running very fast now a days. The life of any news is no more then few
minutes.Mr president is going to China to attend the Olympics opening ceremony.
He is confident and know that this bunch of….Doves …can not impeach him.
LEST ENJOY THE NOORA KUSHTI.
P.S .NEWS one of our worker who is 60 year old heart patient has start reaching office by walk.6 Km one side.He no more afford Luxury of using roof of the bus.
I can see one of three possible results
1) Musharraf is successfully impeached and goes away quietly (unlikely)
2) Musharraf is “successfully” impeached but stays in power because the Army decides to step in
3) There really aren’t enough votes OR Zardari is just homoring Nawaz Sharif.
In any case, this seems like an exercise in futility when our real problem is the apparent lack of ability for this government to gather momentum and do something tangible about our real issues. The only reason (in my mind) to attempt to remove Musharraf would be if he was somehow preventing the government from making progress on gaining control over the ISI, or fighting the Taleban effectively, or taking steps to resolve the food/energy crisis.
I agree that the real issue to keep an eye on is the judges issue and whether this is just a way to move that out of public attention.
After wasting four months on the judges issue without a resolution, now a new topi drama of “impeachment” begins. Meanwhile matters of state and issues of the people can remain in suspension.
Actually this is what I read on the issue:
Dawn cited PML-N leader Khawaja Asif who reportedly confirmed in an interview that “all legal and constitutional hitches are being removed to impeach the president.” Moreover, reported the Daily Times, sources privy to the “make-or-break” meeting told the news agency that “the agreement came about after senior PML-N leader Khawaja Asif assured Zardari that the coalition partners had sufficient strength to impeach President Musharraf if the PPP took the initiative.”
Whether or not they will still have the numbers remains to be seen, but it looks like they are actively mobilizing. I wonder, however, why this was not attempted before, amid the initial hoopla of impeaching Mushy after the new government took office.
I am not sure how the numbers in the senate have changed, but maybe the PPP has more support from the middle now. But it does seem that this one is for real. At least this time I think they will really try this even if they do not succeed.
I’ve read that he did cancel it, but changed his mind and rescheduled it for the next day. May have been smart since the second round of meetings between Zardari and Nawaz happened today - he might be waiting to see what happens.