Adil Najam
Our second blog poll seems to have thrown up some interesting, but also confusing, results.
Depending on how you cut the pie, you can make the argument that:
(a) a clear majority of ATP readers want Gen. Musharraf to give up both or one of his twin offices (Army Chief and President) before the 2007 elections,
and at the same time
(b) a clear (but differently configured) majority wants him to play some role – although a more constrained role – in Pakistan’s politics.
(Click image for larger picture)
A total of 114 ATP visitors cast their votes in the poll which was launched very early on Friday and closed very late on Monday. While this is obviously NOT a scientific survey, the results are rather intriguing, even if not representative.
The ATP Poll gave readers five options in response to the question:
The option that got the most votes (41 votes; 36%) calls on Gen. Musharraf to retire at the end of 2006 and fully hand over both offices to his successors. While this was not an absolute majority, it is well over a third of all the votes cast in the poll. By comparison, only 19 of the 114 respondents (16.7%) preferred the option of Gen. Musharraf continuing in both offices simultaneously.
Just over a quarter of the ATP respondents (30 votes; 26.3%) want Gen. Musharraf to continue in only one of the two offices. There seems relatively little enthusiasm for passing the decision on whetehr he shoudl keep both offices or not to the next Assembly (15 votes, 13.2%) or of holding a national referendum (9 votes, 7.9%).
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. However, the results are interesting nonetheless; at least to the extent that they say something about the cohort that is likely to visit a blog such as ATP and vote in such a poll (i.e., educated, mobile, technically savvy, and globally connected Pakistanis).
While one must caution against over-analyzing these results, at least three points are worth noting; if only to nudge a discussion:
- Given that the technocratic classes tend to support (and be highly represented in) military governments in Pakistan including this one, it is noteworthy that ATP’s (technocratic?) readership chose the ‘retirement option’ (36%) for Gen. Musharraf as often as it did.
- There seems to be a sense that Gen. Musharraf should NOT continue with twin-offices into the future. Only one-sixth of the respondents (16.7%) chose this option. While those who opted for a referendum option or having the next Assembly decide (total 21.2%) may be seen as sitting on the fence on this question, those calling for his retiring from at least one office (and possibly both) were in a clear majority (total 62.3%).
- Not withstanding the above, and in fairness, it should also be noted that a majority of the respondents do, in fact, see (want?) some continued role for Gen. Musharraf — if not in both offices, then in at least one. This finding does not contradict the earlier finding; it only adds nuance (and possibly confusion).
So, where does all of this leave us? Maybe I was onto something when I had responded to a questioner in Washington DC by suggesting that public opinion amongst Pakistanis remains divided and uncertain on the future of Gen. Musharraf.
Maybe what these numbers suggest is that those responding to our poll see a continued role for Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan politics; but they would like to see him having less of a role than he has had in the past (also see earlier ATP post on democracy in Pakistan).
What do you think?
Reported in DAWN today
[quote post=”264″]
President Gen Pervez Musharraf will become the third military ruler after Gen Ziaul Haq and Field Marshal Ayub Khan in the country’s 59-year history to enter the eighth year in Presidency on Friday.
Since 1956 when the country got its first constitution and the office of the governor-general was replaced by the president, there have been 11 presidents. Out of these, four were military men and seven civilians. The four military generals including Musharraf have so far ruled the country for 31 years and one month as compared to 22 years and three months’ tenure of the civilian presidents.[/quote]
And we blame politicians and civillians for the ills of our society. Unless the military rulers stop meddling in politics using sham referendums to justify their coups over a “sham democracy” we won’t be able to generate alternatives.
Dr.,
And we need to educate the “educated or overseas Pakistanis” that they are equal to un-educated or local Pakistanis. Just because educated/overseas Pakistanis believe in Musharraf does not mean the rest of the poulation believes in him. Overseas Pakistanis can voice their opinion using media and blogs but when it comes to voting, votes of all Pakistanis local, overseas, educated or uneducated carry equal weight.
I really think we need a blog (poll) on how many educated and/or overseas pakistani vote? Also the Mr. President has said that the moderates must win in the elections otherwise that would be the end of Jinnah’s Pakistan. And I believe him. What I would like to see happening is that the educated Pakistani’s (The Guided Ones) must vote, even if they have to go to PK from another country. This is a war between radical and rational. These results may show whatever but it will not mean anything if the majority of voters are suppressed poor villagers waiting in line for free food after voting. As harsh it may sound, I call upon the educated once who talk the talk but are sitting abroad in an illusion of limited success. Come forward and save your nation.
[quote comment=”4266″]”What are the alternatives?”[/quote]
Alternatives don’t fall from the sky. You generate them.
What are the alternatives?
[quote comment=”1858″]I don’t support dictatorship on principal but what is the meaning of democracy in Pakistan?[/quote]
IMHO, democracy has some pre-requisites, such as education, tolerance and some level of Morality.
The failure of democracy in our country is the lack of these basic ingridients, especially in our “democratic” leaders.
I think we need to go back to our roots. As a nations we are polarized and confused. Majority groups wants to either copy west or someone else and the other has a misinterpreted version of Islam as a solution.
We need to understand real Islam, where tolerance, purity of intentions and Morality is the key.
I think as a nation we have restricted whole religion to just Namaz and Roza. But for our ease, we forget the part of religion that ask to build moral character. No matter which group we talk about, the mod scod class, strictly religious or the poor man living in the village, every other Pakistani feels no hesitation to give bribe or except it. Nepotism, lying, cheating, dishonuring commitments, lack of any accountability, and the list is long.
As long as we don’t build a nation we true Islamic virtues, no matter how much money we have in our foreign reserves, no matter what type of government we have, we will keep suffering from all the ills as we are now.
All this will start when everybody will start looking in the mirror.