Adil Najam
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Field Marshal Ayub Khan. According to the 126 visitors who voted in the third ATP blog poll (earlier: here and here), these two did more ‘good’ for Pakistan than any of the leaders who followed them. (Of course, we should add that the Poll did not ask for an evaluation of whether the ‘bad’ they did was greater than the ‘good’; nor was the current government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf included).
Choices: (a) Ayub Khan; (b) Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto; (c) Zia-ul-Haq; (d) Benazir Bhutto; and (e) Nawaz Sharif
(Click image for larger picture)
The result is a split decision, but a very clear split decision.
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto got the most votes (52 votes; 41%), but is practically neck-to-neck with his erstwhile mentor-turned-nemesis Ayub Khan (48 votes; 38%). In the context of this Poll and how voting went, the honest thing is to declare them co-winners. The other three – Zia ul Haq, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – combined get only around half as many votes from ATP readers as either of these two! A review of the comments posted with the poll seem to verify these sentiments.
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. And, while one must (again) caution against over-analyzing these results, there are a number of striking elements in the results that are worthy of note, or at least of further discussion:
- First, it is striking that the two people our readers voted most overwhelmingly for were both thrown out of office through massive street protests; albeit amongst very different circumstances (the later aided by a military coup and an eventual execution)!
- Second, although my guess is that the average ATP reader is fairly older than readers of most Pakistani blogs, it is fair to say that most of our readers (and I assume voters) are too young to remember either Ayub Khan’s or ZAB’s eras. More likely that they know of them either from hearing about those times from others or (in Ayub’s case) staring at the back of painted trucks. One wonders, then, if the passage of time has had a ‘healing effect’ on the memories we have constructed of them.
- Notwithstanding the above points, it is quite clear from the margins in the poll as well as the comments that Z.A. Bhutto and Ayub Khan are considered to be WAY above all others. This, however is not a surprise finding and only verifies the view expressed by in one comment that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are not considered to be of the same ‘league.’ This would be so, at least partly, because they never had the type of ‘real power’ that Ayub and ZAB did and also did not stay in power long enough in continuous stretch.
- The biggest surprise to me was Zia ul Haq getting as few votes as he did (11 votes, 9%). He did have absolute power. He was at the helm for a very long time. And he orchestrated very significant changes that continue to be difficult to undo. I would have expected that he does have a residual constituency of support that is not captured by any of the others. I assume that constituency just does not visit ATP!
- Fifth, although Benazir Bhutto got the least votes (5 votes; 4%) I do not feel too sorry for her. My assumption is that BB’s father over-shadowed her (as he always, rightly, has). Had he not been in the list I assume a lot of those votes would have gone to Benazir. However, I am no longer convinced that all of them would have gone to her. Midway through the poll I kept thinking what might have happened if the poll only have Zia, Benazir and Nawaz as choices? I think the proportions of the votes would be very difficult, but I have no idea how. Politically, the fact remains that her constituency – although still sizable – remains largely hereditary.
- Finally, my other big surprise was Nawaz Sharif, who got more support than I had expected (10 votes, 8%). I had though his constituency would view Zia as the ‘father figure,’ but it seems not. Although his Bomb test was cited in the comments, my sense is that most people understand than the Bomb was ‘Bhutto’s choice and Sharif’s necessity.’ Maybe for those who get to use these things, highways, airports, overpasses, and infrastructure do matter in the end.
So there. These are some of my quick thoughts on the results as they panned out. What would you add?
I wonder, how the future might view Gen. Musharraf’s legacy in comparison to these?
My guess is that he probably wants to be seen in Ayub’s mould. However, I have a feeling that history will ultimately judge him on whether and how much he is able to undo the imprints that Zia left on the country. As Chou En Lai once said about the French Revolution, ‘Its too early to say!’
DEAR EIDEE MAN, I find your reasoning very interesting but also the great confidence with which you say things that no one can possibly know for sure. Maybe what that what they call youth. I actually remember voting for Bhutto’s party, twice, and then twice for his daughter even if she disappointed me, and then again on this very nice website. So, I am a very deep and long supporter. But I wonder how, if you were born in ’84, you can be so certain that:
::”Had these kids lived through both eras Bhutto would have left Ayub in the dust”
How can you know that? And for so sure?
Eidee Man, your idea about age and poll responses is interesting. Blogspace is dominated by younger contributors but people can reveal their age by the comments that they post on ATP in my opinion. Some of the people leaving comments including myself are writing from Karachi. Having attended a ZAB rally in 1976, suffice to say it was another world and they don’t make leaders like him anymore. That his fall was primarily his own fault adds to a great sense of tragedy to his legacy
@Nasir Aziz
Must say I am surprised by the hostility and viciousness of the first two paragraphs. The rest is quite interesting analysis. You are probably right about Benazir and Nawaz.
But why the personal attack on the author. He is giving his opinion. He is honestly reporting the numbers, then giving his opinion, saying clearly that it is his opinion and then inviting others to give theirs. So why this rage? On Benazir, the word he uses is “assumptionâ€
Is it surprising that Nawaz got more votes than Zia? Really?!? I didn’t like Nawaz Sharif one bit but I think it would be very harsh to put him below a brutal killer. Nawaz was just corrupt and incompetenet (yeah I know that’s not “just”), but Zia was an evil and dangerous man who single-handedly give birth to all of the problems that are surrounding Pakistan today.
I think the reason Ayub got as many votes as he did is because of the younger audience casting Bhutto in the same light as his daughter….and also because most of the Pak. studies books paint Ayub in a favorable light. Had these kids lived through both eras Bhutto would have left Ayub in the dust. BTW, I was born in ’84.
Now that is interesting. We Indians have been ruled by one family or people selected by that family for so long! We do not have so much choice like you have.
Quite a professional blog! Are you a jurno?
Indian Prime Minister
(blog.gupsup.com)