Adil Najam
The grades are in. And, in the opinion of 263 ATP readers who voted, General Pervez Musharraf’s performance review yields an overall GPA (grade point average) of 2.53; right in between a grade of B- and C+.
(Click image for larger picture)
In this, the fourth ATP Poll (earlier: on womens’ rights here, on Gen. Musharraf’s future moves here, and on past leaders here), more than twice as many people voted as in the last ATP Poll. They were asked to grade Gen. Musharraf’s performance in four key areas: (a) domestic governance, (b) economy and development, (c) governance and reform, and (d) foreign affairs.
The results, based on the average in each area [using a 4-point scale where: A=4.0, B=3.0, C=2.0, D=1.0, F=0.0], is:
Domestic Governance ………… C (1.96)
Economy and Development …………B (3.04)
Governance and Reform ………… C+ (2.25)
Foreign Affairs ………… B/B- (2.88)
As we always point out, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. They are representative only of the opinions of those who voted; and of nothing more. So, lets not take it any more seriously than that. Having said that, there are a number of interesting elements in the results that are worthy of note, or at least of further discussion:
- The overall grade in each area is a broad average, but much more interesting is the distribution of the grades within each of the four areas. As with our previous Poll related to Gen. Musharraf, this distribution suggests a highly differentiated, even polarized view of his performance amongst those who voted in this Poll.
- Representative of this polarization is the fact that in each case the overall average grade lies in the middle of the range but most commonly voted grades lie at the very extreme. Indeed, in three of the four areas – “ the exception being ‘Economy and Development’, the top 2 categories are A+ and F, the two most extreme grades possible!
- While there were a significant number of readers who votes either all F’s or all A+’s, the vast majority did calibrate their performance review within the given range. It is a fair assumption that most (although not all) of these people were die-hard supporters or die-hard opponents.
- Domestic politics, quite clearly, was the area where Gen. Musharraf received the harshest assessments. Nearly a quarter of all who voted, chose to gave him an F (failing grade) in this area. One wonders what, if any, impact Nawab Akbar Bugti’s killing had on this particular grade?
- In contrast, Economy and Development is the area where he gets his highest grade (a B). He also gets the least number of F‘s (29) in this area, and also gets about twice as many A+‘s (57).
- Governance and Reform is the area where the grade distribution is (comparatively) most evenly distributed. But the second worst performance in this Poll, after Domestic Politics. The overall grade is a C+.
- In the area of Foreign Affairs the verdict seems to be most mixed. The overall average is 2.88 which lies just between a B- (2.3) and a B (3). But that is not why it is divided, it is divided because even though the highest number of A+‘s that he gets in any area is here (71, or over a quarter of all votes cast), he also gets as many as 47 F grades on Foreign Affairs. This means that just about 45 percent of all voters gave him a grade at the very extreme! One wonders how, if at all, this was affected by the fact that this Poll was taking place in the middle of his high-visibility tour to the United States?
- The calculation of the overall GPA is based on assuming that each of these four areas carries equal importance to his ‘performance’. If so, his overall GPA of 2.53 would translate to a B-/C+ performance.
Comments folks? Are these grades good? Are they bad? Do you think this is what he would get if all of Pakistan were asked? Or are you all out of touch?
Nice analysis. We don’t have an economic middle class and we dont have a political middle. So we get beaten both ways and everything ends up being polarised.
By the way, kool graphic. Nicely done.
Empowerment of people at grass roots level !!
aka
Local Body system…
I was in Pakistan this summer and someone has piled up a huge koora (garbage) in front of our house. I approached the local UC and not the next day but couple of days later the whole pile was gone. I was surprised to see soo many sweepers and development projects and people being actually responsible for their local areas….
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how long it takes to see the economic trickle reach the bottom in a country with a history like Pakistan?
I know it has taken decades in the developed and developing nations. Abu Mohammad and PatExpat assumed a fictional scenario to support their arguments, both do not talk of any comparative data from the ‘ground realities’.
This was an interesting poll where obviously English speaking and relatively better off Pakistanis contributed so naturally the results will be skewed and ‘in-tangible’. Is there a way to get a hold of some ‘tangible’ data that covers all social strata of Pakistan and most of us can believe in and dicsuss?
Also I am surprised that people still talk about leadership change but no one talks about a national mandate and policies that any given leader(ship) need to follow or implement no matter what side of the fence they sit in. An average Pakistani on the street could care less about leadership figures, in the last 60 years no one has made a dent in their lives – the only time they saw change was when they got up and did it on their own.
The problem is every leader makes up policies and plans on the fly and they always are better than the previous ones and all the previous ones did was to plunder the nation – this completes the circle and is re-spun again.
The divide indeed is striking but I can’t say it is too surprising. I would have to guess that if a similar poll was conducted across the “rest of pakistan” there would also such a divide but the overall results would be lower. However, what would be interesting is if the question was asked on who people would rather have leading the country?
What does this group think. Does the average person on the street in Pakistan want a change in leadership or a change in this leaderships policies?
Maybe Bhatti was a bit harsh :). However, I do disagree with PakExpat somewhat when he says that people of the “higher” socio-economic class are in favor of Musharraf and the rest are not.
The important thing in judging Musharraf’s performance goes back to what really MATTERS to the common man. To me it seems like the majority of people in Pakistan are so busy tackling economic difficulties that they do not really care or understand the foreign, etc issues. The things that are important to the common man are economic security (which inclues things like poverty relief and employment), education for their children, and the proper functioning of local institutions.
I think Musharraf has done TERRIBLY in the local level. His alliances with bullies and thugs have led to complete chaos especially in Sindh. Non-political professionals are being intimidated and coerced MUCH MORE and corruption is beyond belief than under previous “democratic” governments.
However, Musharraf deserves a lot of credit for foreign policy and the Shaukat Aziz team deserves a lot of credit for strengthening Pakistan’s finances (note that I mean the country’s finances and not the finances of the common man).
Hopefully Musharraf and our mainstream political parties will forge some sort of meaningful alliance for the betterment of Pakistan.