Adil Najam
I was in Chicago all weekend for Human Development Foundation (HDF) of North America’s Convention celebrating the HDF’s 10 years of service. It was an intellectually stimulating event with a host of thoughtful presentations various issues related to Pakistan’s development coming from Dr. Tariq Banuri, Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Dr. Sania Nishtar, Arshed Bhatti (‘Civil Junction’ Cafe), Zobaida Jalal (Minister of Social Welfare), Ahmed Bilal Mehboob (PILDAT), Khalid Mirza (former SEC Chairman), Nasir Ali Shah Bukhari (KASB), Dr. Nadeem ul Haque (PIDE), Beena Sarwar, Munizae Jehangir (NDTV), Ethan Casey (PakCast), Syed Talat Hussain (Aaj TV), and others. The event also featured the music of Josh, Munni Begum and Jawad and the poetry of Ahmed Faraz.
As interesting as the formal presentations were the many many side conversations amongst the participants. The current political situation in Pakistan, including Elections 2007, were a hot topic. I learnt much in talking on this to people like Syed Talat Hussain from Aaj TV, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob of PILDAT who had been instrumental in getting the ‘open letter’ to Gen. Musharraf written, and also with Ahmed Faraz. On the elections question the common response was that ‘anything could happen’ and it is no longer clear what is most likely to happen, or even if elections would be held.
I was reminded of my conversation with Imran Khan last year where he had said that the 2007 elections would ‘either be like 1970 or like 1977.’ That may still be true; but it would depend on whether elections happen at all. What do you think? Will they?
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Here’s a question, Adil, that has been bothering me for a while, and as you will see, making me quite pessimistic about the near future:
Why would any of the leading political parties in Pakistan want a fair, clean election anyways? Does PPP really want to take over this mess? or the Nawaz party for that matter? Do they really have a plan, or even a fig of an idea on how to change anything in Pakistan for the better? They are about as dumb on this issue (or most possibly dumber) than the General Sahib himself. The same educated elite/journalists who gave General Sahib research proposals on how to develop Pakistan will rehash their work and re-submit to any newly elected government. What changes? The same people will shuffle around the ministries and perhaps those who read the education reform proposals in this government would now end up reading police reform proposals, etc.
I think I agree with Jamshed that the ruling elite from all the mainstream political parties are quite happy with the deal they have right now (with the possible exception of Imran Khan). Their figureheads are all in some kind of powerful positions given the incestous relationships between the main political parties, they have plenty of people in ministries of some sort, there is plenty of money going around the table in various ways and some landing in their pockets, and each has someone to blame when things do not work out. Why would they want to change that? Pakistan’s situation reminds me of what is going on with failing auto-companies in the US. Each power broker has a role to play (and a little fiefdom to protect and call their own) but nobody wants to own the bigger problem really because then they might have to actually do something about it and take on their own friends and cronies.
Elections will be held, a figure head will be put in charge if Musharraf finds an island (or Dubai) to escape to , military will continue to impose its worry about national security/border goals above all else that might matter to the people of Pakistan, and the politicians will restart the game of pass the buck around. If it is not one Chaudhry in power, another will be, and if there isn’t Benazir in exile, someone else may be. The elite will spend a few years discussing if the opportunity has finally arrived for Pakistan to change for the better. They will pin their hope son the few technocrats that might make it into the government but will give up again in 2-3 years time.
Only the majority of Pakistan has fully understood how this corrupt system works and that is why they stay off the streets and busy working away in the fields and in their offices. My humble proposal is to isolate the government, with their fake promises of a welfare state, to the margins so invested stakeholders, i.e. profit-making institutions, can take over. At the end of the day people still want Roti, Kapra and Makaan, and they can best earn it for themselves.
My vision don’t see elections in near future. I think Chief Justice will be reinstalled by supreme court but will be disbanded by Musharraf. This will be Musharraf’s third and last mistake, after this opposition will start agitation and another coupe will be witnessed. Musharraf will be arrested and other general will control the government. I wish things don’t go in this direction but I don’t see other option unless Musharraf’s advisors show him right path.
I think Musharraf is in a tight spot.
Last week, watching the supreme court seminar on Geo, I was quite surprised to hear comments and slogans from speakers, all lawyers mind you,
— “Musharraf ki wardi utarein ga – han han aaj he utarein gey — wardi key saath khal bhee utarein gey”
— “beghairat genrals”
— “genrals ko jotey mareiy gey”
and ofcourse “Go Musharaf Go”
I just thought that the situation is bad enough to enforce Martial Law due to so much embaressment at the highest level.
I think, Gen Musharraf and team would want to conduct elections with the same cleam sweep facilitated by agencies as done before in 2002 (and in every election but that in 1970). Also, B teams like MMA and PPP seem quite happy with their part of the deal.
However, the lawyers agitation has clearly shown that such an arrangement may result in small but very vocal reactionary movement which can place a lot of mud on Army’s (holy!) face, besides other things.
So, in my opinion, elections cannot be held with the current setup (rather than clipping the wings of judiciary – its gonig in the other direction).
The situation is getting out of hand by yhe managers and in my opinion, Gen Musharraf may face an internal (american instigated as always) coup/ takeover quite soon. back to square 1.
[quote post=”717″]I learnt much in talking on this to people like Syed Talat Hussain from Aaj TV,[/quote]
OffTopic:
Please share on this forum that whether you tried to ask him about inside story of things happened on 12th May,specially the visit of MQM leaders like Waseem Akhter,Kamal etc? Did he tell you something which didn’t come out in public. I am interested to know! :-).
Also, did you say him “Shabash jawan” on his courage?:-)
Now I learnt why i was not able to watch LIVE WITH TALAT.
Educated elites, writers, poets and journalists are very active participants in any discussion concerning the future of a Democratic Pakistan. They forget that there is a ruling class in Pakistan which had been ruling the country according to its whims and wishes. Nothing will change as long as the people of Pakistan do not take their future in their hands which can only be something like French Revolution.
My guess is that there will be an election under Musharraf as pre-elected president by the present assembly or garanteed to be reelected by the future assembly. The election will be controlled by the Army and the Police for a desired result.
Musharraf will be declared a democratic president by his masters in USA and UK and also by himself. And the Life will Continue.
Ahsan