Adil Najam
Since yesterday the “I” word - impeachment - has begun to be thrown around a lot.
Some quarters seem to think that it just happen this time. Others suggest that it is more talk than action and the numbers needed to pull this are still not there.
Coming out of the “critical” Nawaz Sharif-Asif Zardari meetings one keeps wondering how much of this is an effort to keep the coalition going and how much is a real push to change the essential political equations of Pakistan. There are reports that Gen. Musharraf is taking this move seriously enough to cancel his trip to China (to attend the Olympics opening ceremony). On the other hand some of Gen. Musharraf’s supporters are claiming that no such cancellation has happened. We do know, however, that he is taking this challenge seriously and lining up his supporters.
All in all, there is too much noise to say what is happening. But something is clearly happening. Does the PPP-PML(N) have the numbers they need to go ahead? Does the President have the numbers he needs to stop it? And what of all the external actors and where they may lean, why and for what?
Interestingly, we had run a ATP Poll back in June asking you what you thought would have happened to Gen. Musharraf by October 2008? The majority (38%) had thought that he would be impeached by then. A significant number (31%) thought that by October 2008 we woudl be still muddling through as we are now.
We do not intend to open the Poll again, but it does seem that either of those two answers could turn out to be true again. Indeed, even our earlier Poll on the subject, from October 2007, may still be relevant in its results!
So, since we can’t make full sense of exactly what all of this adds up to, we thought we woudl ask our best source: You. What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
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If Musharraf gets impeached, who will take his place? zardari? one of the sharif brothers? can the country really put its fate in the hands of those who have already done more than enough to run in to the ground? zardari is a chairman of a political party yet he talks and makes decisions like the owns the entire country.. as for nawaz sharif..his one point agenda of impeachment just shows a person hungry for revenge. The major issues facing Pakistan are: inflation, food crisis, energy crisis and of course terrorism.. do any of these so called ‘leaders’ have plans to address these issues? does the reinstatement of the cheif justice or impeachment of musharaf really solve these issues? does the average pakistani man who tries to feed his children one meal a day really care abt chaudry iftikhar? NO! no one does! every one can see what a sham this government is. Not saying that under Musharraf’s rule everything was hunkie dorie, no there was many mistakes made under his govt as well. The leaders should be focusing on a multifaceted strategy to combat inflation, address the energy and food crisis immediately, improve the economy and the living standards of the PEOPLE OF PAKISTAN first and then think about other issues.
GUYS, DOING THIS IS NOT VERY EASY EVEN IF IT IS RIGHT. THIS IS WHAT IT WILL TAKE (FROM THE NEWS TODAY)
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ISLAMABAD: In order for the impeachment move against President Pervez Musharraf to succeed, it is necessary for the government to have the support of 295 members in a combined House of 442. The National Assembly has a total of 342 members and the Senate 100 members.
Eight clauses of Article 47 of the Constitution relate to the impeachment of the president. In order to table an impeachment motion, signatures of at least half the members of the National Assembly or the Senate must in practice be presented to either the Speaker of the National Assembly or the Chairman Senate. It is also necessary to ensure the presence of at least two-thirds of the members of the National Assembly and the Senate at the time of voting.
The number of members required to gain a two-thirds majority in both houses is 295. If an impeachment motion is presented against the president, the signatures of at least 172 members of the National Assembly — that is half in a House of 342 ñ will be required as well as 50 members of the 100-member Senate.
The Constitution stipulates three conditions for moving an impeachment motion against the president. Article 47 (1) states a) mental or physical disability; b) violation of the Constitution and c) serious misconduct.
Members will have to provide in writing and with signatures the details of the accusations against the incumbent. As soon as the chairman Senate receives such a notice he will immediately dispatch it to the speaker of the National Assembly. Within three days of receiving it, the speaker will send a copy of the notice to the president
Rules for a joint sitting of parliament will then be issued and eight clauses of Article 47 will be included in the rules. Under Article 47 (5) the speaker must call a joint sitting of both houses of parliament between seven and 14 days. Under Article 47 (6) the House will either order an investigation or itself investigate the charges framed in the notice. According to constitutional experts, because there is no precedent in South Asia for the impeachment of a president there are, therefore, no historical traditions for such an act. That is why either a committee can be formed to investigate the charges against the president or the entire House can investigate the charges. According to constitutional experts, there is nothing in the Constitution or the rules for a joint session that stipulates a timeframe for debate or the passage of such a motion. It is, therefore, possible for the motion to be debated for a full week or more or even one day a week for several weeks.
Article 47 (7) gives the president the right, either during the investigation or before the joint sitting whichever is relevant, to defend himself personally or through a representative. The president is free to nominate any MNA, senator, the attorney-general or a constitutional expert to defend himself.
Article 47 (8) focuses on the numbers required to impeach the president. It is stipulated that at least two-thirds of the combined strength of both houses must vote in favour of the motion to force the president to step down. The president must immediately step down should such a motion be successful. The Constitution and the rules of a joint sitting are silent on the mode of the acceptance of the impeachment motion and there is no precedent available to follow. However, experts state that a show of hands for voting is not acceptable. The speaker will have to determine the procedure for counting of votes and it is likely that the same procedure will be adopted as that for the election of a prime minister ie a division will be carried out in parliament and every vote will be recorded.
According to the latest party position in the National Assembly Secretariat, the ruling coalition has the support of 251 members while the opposition has 88 members. In NA-42 there has been no polling due to the law and order situation. In NA- 41 and NA-123 a stay order has been issued by the court. Therefore, there are three seats still vacant in the National Assembly.
The entire impeachment issue is now a numberís game. The government needs the support of 295 members. However, if the president can muster the support of 150 members the ruling coalition will fail to get the required majority.
Currently, there are members of the PPPP who are secretly opposed to the impeachment move. Makhdoom Amin Fahim has only recently come out openly against removing the president. It is being speculated that at least three to four PPPP members, if not more, might support him.
Even if some members of the ruling coalition absent themselves on the day or show a lack of interest, the president has everything to gain. Similarly, even if a majority is unlikely to support the president, only a handful of Fata members may well tip the balance should they support the president come voting day.
The same situation exists in the Senate. The combined strength of the PML-Q in the Senate was 54 when it was in power. Now its number is down to 53.
The JI and the PKMAP may be siding with the opposition on many issues but their position on the impeachment move is still not clear.
Three independent senators —- Gulzar Ahmed Khan, his son Waqar Ahmed Khan and and Mukhtar Ahmed Khan —- are backing the PPPP. However, the three enjoy close personal ties with the president and may not vote against him.
The PML-Q Forward Bloc in the Senate is also divided. Senators Amjad Abbas and Shahid Iqbal are likely to support the impeachment move, while Nilofer Bakhtiyar and Badini are likely to oppose it.
It seems from this that the numbers in the Senate might fall short for the government
According to constitutional experts.
There is no provision in the Constitution that bars the president from using Article 58 (2b). However, when such a move is challenged in the Supreme Courtit could well be rejected because it could be seen as a mala fide act. There is no provision in the Constitution that allows the president to halt the impeachment process by referring it to the Supreme Court.
According to most observers, the political situation in the country will not allow the use of Article 58 (2b). However, some observers claim that it is the presidentís right to dismiss the assemblies but that this move
can be challenged in the Supreme Court.
In any case, the move to impeach the president is bound to lead to an interesting situation. At least eight to ten members from the PML-Q can support the impeachment motion whereas seven or eight Makhdoom Amin Fahim supporters in the PPPP could stay away from voting against the president.
According to sources, the ruling coalition enjoys the support of 251 members but their number is restricted to 39 in the Senate. That gives the government a figure of 290 members in a joint sitting. If the JI and the PKMAP support the impeachment move (with their combined strength of eight in the Senate) it will go up to 298. The required number for the impeachment to succeed is 295.
The crucial question now is: how many former supporters of President Musharraf can the ruling coalition win over and vice versa and at what cost. That can only be clear on voting day.
PARTY POSITION IN NA
Pakistan Peopleís Party Parliamentarians 125
Pakistan Muslim League-N 91
Pakistan Muslim League-Q 54
Muttahida Qaumi Movement 25
Awami National Party 13
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal 7
Pakistan Muslim League-F 5
National Peopleís Party 1
Balochistan National Party-A 1
Pakistan Peopleís Party-Sherpao 1
Independents 16
Total 339
Vacant 3
Number of seats 342
Party position in senate*
Opposition
Muslim League-Q 38
Muslim League-F 1
PPP-S 3
Ind 3
NPP 1
MQM 6
JUI 1
TOTAL 53
Government
PPPP 10
Muslim League-N 4
JUI-F 13
ANP 2
JWP 1
IND 7
BNP 2
TOTAL 39
*The Jamaat-e-Islami has five and PKMAP three seats in the Senate. These parties are neither formally part of the government or opposition
I dont think that the formal impeachment will happen at all. But all this pressure will force Musharraf to leave or o be told by teh Army to leave. That will be the best solution.
Musharraf should really have left a year ago. If he had he would have become a hero. Now he has become a distraction and is making life worse for everyone. Please leave Mr. Musharraf, so that the country can get on with life and this craziness can end.
Doctor Adil Najam;
Impeachment by two crooks of a third crook? All humble servants of the Law? It is hilarious! Jinnah Sahib must be rolling in his grave.
This house of crooks has to burn to the ground. Only thus purified the Phoenix of hope and prosperity
will rise.
Well if people on all sides put their blinders down and think about what is actually happening rather that who they like or not like, then this is just one more sign of eh chaos that is ruling Pakistan. Just look at the front page of this blog right now. You have one post asking is Yousuf Raza Gillani may be on his way out and another one saying that maybe Musharraf is on his way out.
Musharraf is a distraction in the current political setup and should leave of his own volition if not forcibly removed. We Pakistanis have a habit of not looking at the big picture and tend to focus on the peripheral issues. The fact of the matter is that he has no more the moral and legal authority to be President of Pakistan. He has lost this authority because of the acts committed against the people and institutions of Pakistan since March 2007. His manipulation of the constitution of Pakistan is unprecedented in the history of this country. The fact of the matter is that with his approval ratings at 11%, according to most optimistic estimates, in another civilized country he would have left long time ago. But we are talking of Pakistan here. His 4 advisors and 11 supporters on this board are insisting that he is the elected President of the country.
His supporters claim that the govt should focus on the problems of this country. Yes, without him that would be one less problem that this govt will have to deal with. That alone will be hugely positive for the country. Without the distraction in the President house, we can finally focus on the real issues and stop wasting our energies on getting him out of there. Pakistani economy is facing a crisis of confidence today. That crisis won’t go away until the stalemate between the institutions of the government comes to an end. Once resolved, businessmen will bring their money back to the country. Otherwise the flight of capital that we are seeing is not going to stop.
America needs to understand that we can’t keep killing our own people. This war that is burning our house has to stop. Without him at the helm, we can finally tell America that we will deal with the extremism problem our own way; with negotiations. Otherwise British learned long time ago that you can’t fight these fiercely independent Pakhtoons. If anyone here disagrees, they are welcome to join the fighting.
And yes, Ahmad Shahid, all I can say is Amen, Amen and Amen.
@amina from the north
you have got to be kidding me!!! I had to read your comment twice, but am still not sure what you are lamenting.
This is an elected Govt. And again, please nothing, absolutely nothing can compare to the embarrassment that was caused by Mush’s rape comment in D.C.
Again, we elected this Govt. and want to see it complete the 5 years.