Adil Najam
Over the last few days we have resisted posts about the recent political machinations in Pakistan. This is despite the fact pseudo-news pours in ever-more ferociously and ever-more sensationally from Pakistan. Literally by the hour.
This is pseudo-news not only because everything is sensationalized and exaggerated with bombastic Ministers, protesting lawyers, baton-charging policemen, and dumbstruck awam. It is pseudo-news because despite the truly historic nature of what is unfolding, there is little that anyone can seem to do about anything. Events unfold as if they were totally disconnected with public sentiment. As if all the noise is just background accompaniment. In the long run, this can never be. But that is what it seems like right now.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything – nor has the hope to do so – the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi. Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything – nor has the hope to do so – the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi.
Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.It is of little use, right now, to do yet another post on the Presidential elections or to invite people to vent the same frustrations yet again, and again, and again. Venting can be useful, but onlyto a point. Please, spare us your comments on just how good Gen. Musharraf has been for Pakistan’s economy or just how bad the military is. These points have been made too many times already in the comments, and frankly, if others have not been convinced of your viewpoint on this yet (whatever your viewpoint), then repeating it one more time will really make no difference. It will only waste our bandwidth.
Let us try, instead, to push into more analytically fertile territory. Let us try, at least, to think beyond the slogans about the even larger political questions confronting us. Barring some really big surprise, it seems a fair assumption that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President. Right now, we do not want to hear whether you think it is a good thing or not. Most of you have already made your positions on this clear already. As have we. We want to hear instead on what do you think will happen next? And why? Will things calm down or worsen? And, again, why? Why is the really important analytical question.
To assist in catalyzing such a discussion, we have devised a two part ATP Opinion Poll.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Again, and please, spare us the slogans. Give us your analysis. We understand and share the frustrations that give rise to the slogans, but let us at least try to make something better of this discussion. If you really feel like abusing and shouting, there are plenty of other places to do so. Here, lets focus on analysis. That means, the ‘why’ questions.
All politicians including Musharraf are neither loyal to Pakistan nor Pakistanis. This situation will stay as it is until Pakistanis will rise against these thugs and elect the loyal people. Pakistanis can only be educated enough to vote for loyal people by right education and media. Media is playing his role but general public is not. Political parties should also get involved to train Pakistanis how to elect loyal leaders. This is the only way for change nothing else.
Adil Bhai,
Interesting post, I disagree with your focus on analysis alone for I do believe the endless debates on the media and elsewhere on both sides have only delivered paralysis by analysis. Yes I agree we need to find solutions and hence at Other Pakistan my most recent post is worth a read titled ‘Pakistan’s Judgement Week’ as shown here http://www.otherpakistan.org/archive.html
Other Pakistan seeks to provide solutions so all of Pakistan can move forward, however at the same time we cannot be party to injustice for the sake of some warped nationalism as espoused by Mush or others. If Pakistan’s future is at at stake naara bazi is the least of our worries.
Feimanallah
Wasim
The deal is final and BB has informally announced about that.
a) I think this unnatural alliance/marriage of convenience will not last long as the upcoming ruling pair have clear personality clash.
b) BB is doing the same deal which she had done in 88 before coming to power. The silent public is just observing the political jugglery and will react on a little mistake as they reacted in case of CJ and transformed Musharraf from Gulliver to Lilliputian.
c) The radicalization in tribal and some districts of NWFP is another threat which would give them very hard time to overcome this problem. Both of them are ideological allied against radical forces but would be having different way to deal with them. I assume it may brew clash between them.
d) The political forces which are currently in opposition will be another barrier for their smooth sailing.
e) Supreme Court is another forum which will continue to keep the government accountable for their unconstitutional decisions
f) If PPP and MQM do not become ally in the next setup, then law and order in Karachi would again be a huge challenge for future setup
g) FINAL and most important challenge to be faced by future setup is how to deal with skyrocketing prices of edibles, disparity causing poverty and hunger. As none of them have any agenda/program to tackle this issue and it will stimulate the masses to align against the ruling elite and come on the street.
Musharraf will become President.
PML (Q) will be the dominant party.
Next Prime Minister may be Humayun Akhter.
Pakistan economy will continue to thrive for the next spate of 5 years & critics & obsolete politicians in the opposition (like BB and NS) will continue to shout ‘sky is falling!’
Next Question Adil? (you stress yourself too much)
I watched Mush’s interview yesterday on Kamran Khan and from the tone of the interview, I gather that he doesn’t see any obstacles that can prevent him from becoming President. He says (and I think) he will remove his uniform. I think PPP will not resign and will reach an agreement with the govt. on the same day as the Presidential elections. I think this deal will involve giving even more powers to the President than currently exist. I think the Parliamentary elections will be held on time (before Jan 15th) and PML-Q, PPP & MQM will get an overwhelming majority, neutralizing all opposition for practical purposes. Current policies will continue, American support will continue and the public will take a wait-and-see approach for another couple of years.