Adil Najam
Before the elections Dawn News had done a series on who should become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. I am not sure what the result there was. But I do know that the question is real again. Much more real.
Speculation is rife. Theories about. The more we talk about it, the more confused we get. The game is interesting, but is it just a game?
There are too many questions, and too few answers.
- Will we get a grand ‘coalition of [nearly] the whole, which will have 3/4th majority and could replace the President and rehabilitate the Constitution?
- Will PPP and PML-N part ways – either because PML-N will choose to be the ‘friendly’ opposition or because they both realize they cannot work together?
- What about the PML-Q? They are also talking to the PPP. Is a PPP-PML-Q coalition on teh cards?
- They say Amin Fahim is over, is he?
- Will we get a PM from the Punjab – Gillani, Qureshi or Mukhtar – to highlight that PPP is not just a ‘Sindhi’ party? If so, will this is permanent or temporary while the party waits for Asif Zardari to be elected from somewhere?
- With Maulana Fazlur Rahman doing his ‘meetings’, is he still in the game?
- What about the ANP? Could we see a consensus candidate emerging from there in the ruling coalition?
- And what about the provinces. It seemed that things were clear – PML-N in the Punjab, PPP in Sindh, ANP in NWFP and PML-Q in Balochistan. Will that actually be?
And you could answer any of them in the affirmative depending on what you already think and which news reports you have been reading. Any ideas what might actually happen?
In a recent post on ATP ‘temporal‘ had asked who should become the next president of Pakistan. We ask a similar question today but the intent this time is not normative, but practical. The question, this time, is not who should become the next President, but who you think will become the next Prime Minister, given the way the cards have been dealt with the last elections.
so, Koun Baney Ga Wazeer-i-Aazm? Any thoughts?
Aqil, despite the issues you pointed out, the PPP seems to win or at least come in very strong in every election….there must be something there.
Also, I think you’re wrong on the class issue; the business community does not like the PPP…at least not Benazir’s and definitely not ZAB’s PPP. They’ve nationalized businesses in the past, and just compare this government’s privatization policies.
“One reason for the disliking for the PPP has to do with the fact that the PPP does not reflect middle class values at all. ”
How so? The non-rich seem to voting for them in droves.
“The other thing is that the PPP is stuck in the past.”
What does this statement mean? Not like futuristic Musharraf who struck the clock back another 20 years with his dictatorship? Or like Nawaz who took us back to God knows when by ATTACKING the supreme court chief justice….but I guess that was okay, after all, he was a sindhi PPP crony anyway…now he’s the pro-judiciary party….how times have changed….Nawaz is certainly not stuck in the past.
“Instead, they rely more on emotional blackmail by mentioning the
It will be unfair if Amin faheem is not made the PM becuase he ran the show in Benezir’s absence and remained loyal when all types of baits were thrown at him. And because Asif Zardari mentioned his name after the funeral in a much publicized press conference. He should never have done that. On merit though Shah Mehmood Qureshi is someone to think about. There is a real chance for PPP to strengthen its position in Punjab by having a Punjabi PM. And not just that, they will have to do real work, projects, etc. to make that happen. Asif has shown already how weak a leader he is compared to his late spouse and how his vision changes by the day. In Sindh he has made the right choices though by making Qaim Ali Shah CM and Nisar Khoro speaker. Going by contribution, these were two top dogs in the past many years and it would have been unfair had he made Durrani, his best friend the CM. Even though I think Khoro should have been the choice for CM. Ironically it is becoming evident that the decsions Zaradri would’ve easily made in Benenezir’s life will not come as easy after Benezir. He is a Zardari and he will know his limitations soon.
If PPP is to become a real political force they must move beyond slogans and Sindh and do real work. Aqil has nailed down their obsession with the past.
Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Yousaf Raza Gilani and Chaudhary Ahmed Mukhtar are hardly “nobodies”, as one poster called them…
Qureshi was the PPP candidate for PM last time too, is a loyal PPP member, is the Punjab chapter president and was the only one to defeat the popular Javed Hashmi, who contested from four constituencies and won three… he is also respected as an administrator, having been Nazim of Multan, and was even offered a place in government by Musharraf, but turned it down… if you’d had the chance to hear him speak, you’ll agree that there are few orators in Pakistan equal to him…
Gilani is also a party stalwart and has spent years in jail… he has been a minister a number of times…
Mukhtar is a former commerce minister, and anyone who can defeat the formidable Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain from his own constituency deserves respect…
As for going for a Punjabi PM, the PPP is no different from any other party in a multi-ethnic country… I’m in the US, and there’s an election this year… traditionally, the Vice Presidential nominee from a party is always someone who can appeal to constituents who may potentially not be swayed by the Presidential nominee… the likelihood of Obama having a black as running mate or Clinton having another woman is minuscule… in Canada, the Liberal party always alternates its leaders between the Anglophone and the Francophone communities… in Belgium, the governments strive for balance between the Flemings and the Walloons, and in Lebanon, the offices of the President, Prime Minister, deputy Prime Minister and Parliament Speaker always go to, respectively, a Maronite Christian, a Sunni Muslim, a Catholic Christian and a Shia Muslim…
In short, it is a sign of maturity that we are talking about inter-ethnic divisions of power… denying something’ s existence won’t make it go away… while it may sound romantic and idealistic to say that the PPP can go for anyone since they have captured seats virtually everywhere (and this is true and they should be proud of the fact that they are the truly national party), the fact remains that their weakest area remains Northern Punjab… I am from Rawalpindi myself, and I can vouch for the fact that people in my part of the country are often inherently anti-PPP and anti- all other provinces… it may well be an astute move on part of the PPP to nominate a Punjabi for PM… if such a move can increase the PPP’s popularity in northern Punjab (and it may or may not work), it would be great for Pakistan to have our only truly national party regain a foothold which hasn’t been there since ZAB’s time…
After analyzing the elections result very carefully, I have come up to this concluusion that, in my opinion, Punjab will have a CM from PML-N, Sindh’s CM will be from PPP, Balouchistan’s CM will be from PML-Q, NWFP’s CM will be from ANP and PPP will also have a PM in NA.
The best person I think for this job is Amin Fahim, as he is diplomatic, he does not seems to be unrealistic, unlike the PML-N leadership, who are beleiving in agitation and confrontational politics.
Right now, we need a person who can become the bridge between the presidency and the parlianment, as this only will work for the betterment of the country.
P.S Writer wrote: Will we get a grand
Well as far as the elections are concerned, the signs all the way up to Feb 18 were that there would be massive rigging. So there were some people who wanted a full agitation against the Musharraf regime to force a change of govt and then have elections under a new election commission and the restored judiciary. This group was not against elections by itself but had a different opinion on how to get there. Whether this view was justified or naive is a different matter; I still don’t know what to make of it if I try to remove the element of hind sight after Feb 18. If General Kayani had not kept the army out, we would most probably have had very different results.
As far as the middle class’s opposition to the PPP is concerned, I don’t think it’s about feeling threatened that this party will change the status quo and deprive the educated elite of its status. The PPP no longer has any such radicle program. Besides, the middle class opposition to the PPP comes not only from the upper elite, but also from the lower middle class in northern punjab, which usually votes for PML-N. Members of this lower middle class can’t really be worried about a loss of privilleged status coming from more egalitarian policies.
One reason for the disliking for the PPP has to do with the fact that the PPP does not reflect middle class values at all. The other thing is that the PPP is stuck in the past. Whenever you press a jiala on the PPP’s recent past or stance on a current issue, you seldom get a relevant answer. Instead, they rely more on emotional blackmail by mentioning the ‘sacrifices’ of the Bhutto family or the party’s history of opposing military rule in the 1980s. If you question the party’s present commitment to democracy, you get an angry tantrum. How dare you question the party that has done so much for democracy? The only problem is that they can’t continue to run on slogans from the past like that. Some people may be more interested in clear positions on current issues and less in what the party used to stand for 20 years back.