Adil Najam
Since yesterday the “I” word – impeachment – has begun to be thrown around a lot.
Some quarters seem to think that it just happen this time. Others suggest that it is more talk than action and the numbers needed to pull this are still not there.
Coming out of the “critical” Nawaz Sharif-Asif Zardari meetings one keeps wondering how much of this is an effort to keep the coalition going and how much is a real push to change the essential political equations of Pakistan. There are reports that Gen. Musharraf is taking this move seriously enough to cancel his trip to China (to attend the Olympics opening ceremony). On the other hand some of Gen. Musharraf’s supporters are claiming that no such cancellation has happened. We do know, however, that he is taking this challenge seriously and lining up his supporters.
All in all, there is too much noise to say what is happening. But something is clearly happening. Does the PPP-PML(N) have the numbers they need to go ahead? Does the President have the numbers he needs to stop it? And what of all the external actors and where they may lean, why and for what?
Interestingly, we had run a ATP Poll back in June asking you what you thought would have happened to Gen. Musharraf by October 2008? The majority (38%) had thought that he would be impeached by then. A significant number (31%) thought that by October 2008 we woudl be still muddling through as we are now.
We do not intend to open the Poll again, but it does seem that either of those two answers could turn out to be true again. Indeed, even our earlier Poll on the subject, from October 2007, may still be relevant in its results!
So, since we can’t make full sense of exactly what all of this adds up to, we thought we woudl ask our best source: You. What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
I don’t think Musharraf is going anywhere. He has the backing of the army and the U.S. As long as the two ruling coalition parties cannot come to an agreement on the issues, this impeachment coup will also fail like the coup on the ISI.
Hi there,
In fact one tends to side by a non-military government; but let us be frank in our approach and in the context of Pakistan (I am not a Pakistan but a very keen observer of the SA affairs) that the so-called non-military gov. of the PPP-PML (N) et al, has not been better than that of the Military one.
The anti Musharraf agitation has become unfortunately more like a personal vendetta more for Mr. Sharif than of course Mr. Zardari.
The coalition could have acted more wisely from the beginning on the people’s mandate and work with Musharraf while in the meantime clip Presidential powers.
The unwise moves by especially PML (N) and in general the government, has caused a lot of damage to it and has created a far difficult problem for the country which is struggling with terrorism and financial problems among all.
Thank
Hallelujah !!!!!!!
Hallelujah !!!!!!!
I am a stats type guy doing a lot of financial analysis so used to analyzing numbers.
So when I look at the results an charts of the two surveys you have done on this above the one thing that strikes me is that we have now had more than a year of absolute chaos with no one knowing where things are going. And that has to hurt society as well as the economy.
Frankly, I prefer Musharraf over either the PPP or PML. However, from just an analytical sense the cost of his staying is not so high because of the chaos being caused by his being there that I would rather see him leave so that all the negativity in society that comes from so many people being so against him goes. The economy will also benefit from that. Sometimes the second best solution is the best one. In this case I think the uncertainity will become less if he leaves and that itself will be good for Pakistan.
The population was against him even though everyone knew he would be replaced by Benazir/Zardari or Nawaz. Mush wasn’t an angel either but at least much better than the current rulers. I believe the country has always been in a state that it can only be managed by the army.
The world economy is currently going through a serious recession. Everyone’s whining about the credit crunch in the UK and US. We can only imagine what it can do to the volatile environment in Pakistan specially with the current rulers.
This would create a desperate situation for people (specially in urban areas) and with increased unemployment, I see more lawlessness in our streets and houses in the coming future. Do we all hear incidents of educated looking youth committing robberies in Karachi nearly everyday?
And please don’t say ‘Pakistan has gone through worse and nothing ever happened. It will go through this as well’ like some of my elders do.
Did anyone see the NATO strategic map of the region they use for training? Pakistan is shown with, NWFP part of Afghanistan, Baluchistan part of Iran and Azad Kashmir in India in the coming future.
What do the politicians care. They know, it’s their last chance this time to fill their pockets with as much as they can. Then they can peacefully end up taking asylum in a foreign country with money in their pockets. The current rulers have already started setting up in posh areas of UK in the previous years.
Development funds in Karachi (Which deserves it than any other city because of economic importance to Pakistan) have been stopped. They are desperately trying to finish off the left over projects. Anyways, I can go on and on.
May Allah keep us United. Ameen.