According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
The gutless cowards ruling Pakistan
It was only inevitable that the Pakistan government would sue for peace with the Taliban. In a desperate bid to stave of the approach of insurgency in the Punjab and Sind provinces, the spineless government caved into the demands of a bunch of thugs and virtually signed away a province over to these miscreants.
Any follower of the history of Pakistan will not be surprised. There is a precedent to this too. In 1965, Pakistan fought a war with India. The war ended in a stalemate. Although the territories of the then state of Pakistan was divided into West and East Pakistan, over 90% of the armed forces were concentrated in the West, essentially protecting Punjab and Sind from India. This was in line with the strategic doctrine that defense of East Pakistan lay in West Pakistan. Thus on the eastern front, the Indians outnumbered the Pakistani troops defending East Pakistan by more than three to one.This fact was not lost on the East Pakistanis who increasingly started viewing the army as a west Pakistani entity created to defend only West Pakistan. The seeds of secession which culminated with the creation of Bangladesh were firmly sown as a result of the 1965 War.
The good people of Swat and the North West frontier province are also learning the same lessons. When it come down to it, it is the most vulnerable of the citizens of Pakistan who are suffering. Statistically, the NFWP province are eons behind in development of human resources, infrastructure and other amenities as compared to the Punjab and Sind provinces. They are the one who need the support and help from the Pakistan armed forces to repel the raga tag bunch of hoodlums who have forcibly taken over their state. Yet the Pakistan government prevaricates. Despite the fact that thru a open and fair election, a secular progressive government under the Awami National Party (ANP) was elected to power, ( clearly throwing out the Islamist incumbent party which was in power) the central government claims that they are honouring the wishes of the “majority” of the people of Swat by “allowing” the Taliban to take over power in the state.
The hope of these spineless, gutless bunch of morons in power in Islamabad is that the blood lust of the Taliban vampires will be sated by the sacrifice of the boon dock provinces. What they don’t realize is that once the slim pickings in these provinces are sucked dry, the Taliban will be looking greedily at the fat, rich and decadent core provinces of Pakistan. They will start with Baluchistan. It is out of the way and the same threat of random human suicide bombings will scare the government into relinquishing control into Taliban hands. Quetta is already under quasi Taliban control. Next will be Sind starting with Karachi where the MQM and the Pathan are already at war, with the Sindhis as silent spectators. Punjab seen as the Babylon of vices will pay the price last. And all because the government was not willing to take a stand.
What the government should do is to establish the writ of the state in every corner of Pakistan. What is the point in bemoaning the loss of sovereignty of Pakistan when the US blatantly bombs the NWFP, when at the same time not a whisper is raised about the existence of non Pakistani players extracting taxes and holding courts where they are police, prosecutor and judge.
Currently neither the Army nor the bureaucrats not the common citizen care about the fate of the outer lying provinces. What they don’t know is that by not acting now, they have embolden the Taliban. Small two bit players are parleying with the government representatives as equals nay as superiors bargaining from a position of strength. If the government keeps this going, its only a matter of time before the inevitable happens. The Taliban version of hell will spead into every corner of Pakistan.
Zardari, Sharif and Musharraf, the bells of Taliban hell are tolling. They are tolling for you.
It is absurd to see some contributors on this Blog calling those people who are trying to raise awareness against Taliban danger
Why is Gen Kayani and the Pakistan Army being condemned? They are the only ones actually fighting the extremists on the ground, and they were repeatedly sabotaged by the ANP/PPP “peace agreements”, which allowed militants to re-group, re-arm and take revenge against those civilians who were supporting the military operation.
Every single politician/parliamentarian from Swat fled, no member of the Cabinet ever visited the place, and neither did the President/PM. They all deserve blame for this failure.
Correction: “to the ranking of Jawaan”.
Let’s face it: Pakistan Army failed. It failed in every prospect. General Kayani deserves to be stripped to the ranking to Jawaaan. He failed us and he failed Pakistan. My pride in Pakistan army is shattered! I will never count on Pakistan army if war starts. Taliban are much much more powerful than Pakistan army. Maybe Pakistan should recruit them in Army.