Adil Najam
Although not yet confirmed, all indications suggest that it is more likely than not that Baitullah Mehsud - the leader of the Taliban in Pakistan - has been killed.
The obvious question being asked right now is: Is he really dead?
The more important question that should also be asked, one this is confirmed, is: If he is dead, then what?
Baitullah Mahsud had become the visible (without really being visible) name to identify with the Taliban’s war on Pakistan. Even if deaths that he and his organization claim (proudly) to have been responsible for are counted, he has been responsible for killing more Pakistanis (nearly all Pakistani Muslims) than just about any other enemy of Pakistan in recent years.
But that does not mean that his departure alone would bring an end to the Taliban war on Pakistan.
Who will rise next? Do we know what the next level of the chain of command is? Do we know where? Do we have a strategy to deal with them before they, too, become larger than life?
All these, and many more, questions remain.
Also, there are questions about the US drone attacks. If, indeed, he was killed in a US drone attack, does that change Pakistanis’ views on the drone attacks? And, if it turns out that he has, in fact, not been killed, how does that change the US-Pakistan politics of drones?
Many questions deserving of answers. Any thoughts, dear readers?
By way of background, here is a profile of Baitullah Mehsud, from Dawn:
Born in 1972, Baitullah Mehsud had to suffer an early childhood dislocation when he moved, along with his father, from his Nargosha village to Landi Dhok in Bannu, close to the South Waziristan tribal region. His father served as a Pesh-Imam (prayer leader) in a mosque in Landi Dhok before moving to Miramshah in North Waziristan and there also he led prayers in a mosque. Baitullah got a little religious education in Miramshah’s Pepal Madressah.
And it was in Miramshah where Baitullah is believed to have come into contact with Taliban militants who persuaded him to join them in the fight against the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. He fought well in Afghanistan and established himself as a fighter, a senior security officer, who himself belongs to the Mehsud tribe, recalled.
Baitullah returned to his native South Waziristan after the United States invaded Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban regime in November 2001. He shot to prominence after the notorious Taliban commander in South Waziristan, Nek Mohammad, was killed in a missile attack in Wana in June 2004. But he kept a low profile when the one-legged former Guantanamo detainee, Abdullah Mehsud, reined supreme in the Mehsud territory. His real chance to claim leadership came soon after Abdullah kidnapped two Chinese engineers in October 2004. Miffed that the fiery militant commander had picked up an unnecessary fight with Pakistan’s security forces, a shura of the local Taliban removed Abdullah Mehsud and handed over the command of the Taliban in South Waziristan to Baitullah.
Known for his cool-headedness, the military hailed Baitullah’s ascension, called him a soldier of peace and signed the Sara Rogha agreement with him in February 2005. The peace agreement collapsed in a matter of months, with both sides accusing each other of violating its terms, leading to the beginning of hostilities that took a huge toll. Baitullah proved himself a tough warrior, taking due advantage of a territory that was native and treacherous, by defeating two successive military operations.
He catapulted to the limelight when he took hundreds of Pakistani soldiers hostage in August 2007. It was perhaps because of this singular feat that militants in the length and breadth of Fata at a 20-member shura meeting chose him as leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in December 2007. Baitullah unleashed a wave of suicide bombings in Pakistan. Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani once told journalists that the TTP leader was behind almost all attacks inside Pakistan. According to a UN report, Baitullah was behind 80 per cent of the suicide bombings in Afghanistan.
He gained in stature to the extent that Time magazine rated him as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Not to be left behind, Newsweek described him as more dangerous than Osama bin Laden. Accounts vary about the actual strength of his force, but intelligence agencies put the number of his fighting force at 20,000 to 30,000, including 2,000 to 3,000 foreign militants, mostly of Central Asian origin – Uzbeks and Chechens. He ran a number of training camps, including those indoctrinating suicide bombers – a weapon – he once called his own atom bombs.
A short-stocky man, Baitullah suffered from diabetes that once prompted reports of serious illness and then death in late 2008. Much to the disappointment of many, the man bounced back to host a big feast of lamb and rice to celebrate his second marriage to a daughter of the local influential tribal leader, Malik Ikramuddin. He, however, remained issueless. According to one account, he was also the ghost writer of a book in Urdu, Carvan-i-Baitullah Mehsud, using the pen-name of Abu Munib. In the book, he described his ideology, war strategy and details pertaining to his movement. The United States had announced a $5 million bounty on Baitullah’s head in March this year. But it took Pakistan several months before making up its mind to declare him as Pakistan’s enemy number one and announce a reward of Rs50 million for his capture, dead or alive, in June.
Trouble began to emerge for the TTP leader when the government announced the launching of a military operation against him in June. No ground offensive was launched and the government changed its tactics to use air strikes and artillery, besides imposing an effective economic blockade to stop fuel and food supply to the area. Thousands of Mehsuds fled the area. He was under pressure both from within his own Mehsud clan, which wanted him to ease it off with the government, and his commanders who egged him on to fight off the military. For the first time, his decision and thought-making process was shaky, an official familiar with the situation in the area said.
He wouldn’t stay in one place for two months and would constantly change places. His nerves were on edge, he remarked. It is useless to run away. I know some day, one day they will come and get me, one senior official quoted Baitullah as telling a fellow Mehsud tribesman. Little did the man, described by a senior security official as someone with fox-like instincts to sense danger, suspect that he was exposing himself to a missile target by relaxing with his younger wife on a roof in Zanghara, South Waziristan.
This dead guy don’t look 35. He seems to be 45 at least. When this extremist is dead; his like minded are claiming that he was not their man. (LOL) No matter from where he was getting money; he was still a right wing extremist.
Hamid Mir; Hamid Gul and Imran Khan will be in pain these days!
I am quite on topic. I gave the news reference which were relevant to Mehsud’s link with India and US. If you can’t grasp it then it’s not my fault. Pls do read the stuff before making a comment.
Offcourse! Pakistan’s success solely depends on getting rid of fascist elements of both left and right elements. I hope the day will come when we will get rid of fascist secular elements like Musharraf,Altaf, Zardari and their “supporters”. But the question is..,is he Dead?
I read a cutting that US is happy after “split” between Talibans. I don;t know why US is happy but for Pakistan it’s more dangerous as fight between different groups could create more problem in Pakistan. As Kamran Khan reports that Mehsud had lots of money which was funded by “external sources” which I mentioned above and other guys fought to grab the money and lots of weapons, this “internal” fight would be more dangerous for Pakistan
Wow, here is an even more interesting news report from THE NEWS:
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A desperate wish for a son may have led to the death of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, a British newspaper reported on Sunday.
Mehsud was spending the night with his second wife in village Zangarha on Wednesday when he was killed in an American drone attack, the Sunday Times said. It said the 35-year-old Mehsud, who has four daughters by his first wife, took a second wife, the daughter of an influential cleric, last November.
The paper said the diabetic Mehsud, who had been feeling “poorly”, had taken a risk in spending the night at the house of second wife’s father. He had been seen by a local doctor, who had given Mehsud a glucose drip.
“In the end it may have been the desire for a son that led to the Taliban leader’s demise,” said the report. The paper said initial reports suggested only Mehsud’s wife and two fighters had been killed, but suspicions were raised when a large funeral was held the next day.
Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Saturday said Mehsud, his wife and seven guards were killed. But he added, “We are still waiting for material evidence to confirm it totally.” Mehsud was supported by the Pakistani army and intelligence service ISI, a Pakistani military analyst told the paper.
“He was originally supported by the military and ISI, but he had begun to bite the hand that fed him,” said analyst Ayesha Siddiqa. “His death is a very powerful signal to them all.”
Very interesting report in THE NEWS. Worth Reading:
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bloody feud that followed Baitullah Mehsud’s death involving about three-dozen best-trained Taliban fighters early on Wednesday morning was actually a battle among various Taliban warlords to control Rs 2 billion Taliban funds and ownership of arms and ammunition worth about Rs 1 billion by grabbing the ‘Emarat’ (the leadership) of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), according to senior security officials and knowledgeable Taliban sources.
Such was the charisma and awe of 35-year-old, five feet two inches tall Baitullah Mehsud that none of his associates ever dared to challenge his leadership till an American missile strike blew his body apart on the first floor of the house of his second wife in South Waziristan last week.
An intelligence official said: “For about four years, some 3,500 trained fighters and dozens of suicide bombers blindly followed Baitullah as he was the centre of gravity of terrorism in Pakistan.” The battle for the control of the Rs 3 billion Taliban treasure erupted within two days of Baitullah’s death, when two of his most trusted lieutenants, Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman, claimed succession in an emergency meeting in Sararogha, where an armed clash left Hakimullah Mehsud dead, along with 40 Taliban fighters, on Saturday evening, a security official said.
An official account of this incident said Waliur Rehman got seriously wounded, while Qari Hussain, who ran the Taliban’s suicide operations directly under Baitullah Mehsud, was also wounded with bullet injuries on both legs in the same incident.
Hakimullah Mehsud, Waliur Rehman and Qari Hussain were claimant to the ‘Emarat’ of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, that comes with a grip on funds of billions of rupees, huge cache of weapons and thousands of trained fighters and a close affinity with al-Qaeda and its leader Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, who had chosen Baitullah Mehsud to lead the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
“There is a constant flow of tens of millions of dollars from foreign enemy sources that keeps the Taliban machine rolling,” a senior security official said, adding: “Over the years Baitullah had built a cash reserve of about Rs 2 billion in addition to large cache of sophisticated weapons, ammunition and latest communication equipment.”
Intelligence officials believe money for the Pakistani Taliban was either buried in various caves in the tribal areas or it was stashed in various bank accounts in Pakistan and in some Gulf states.
Baitullah Mehsud’s coffers expanded so much last year that he sent one of his cousins to Dubai for cash investment in various real estate projects; subsequently millions of dollars were remitted for adventurous business proposals in Gulf states.
“It was not theft, Baitullah just wanted to bolster Taliban reserves because of growing expenses,” said a Karachi-based Mehsud tribesman, who had associated with Baitullah in the past. Narrating another incident, the same source said when a renowned Taliban commander informed Baitullah about huge monetary offers he was receiving from Pakistani officials to surrender, Baitullah’s answer to this man was: “Money is not with the government of Pakistan. Money is with me, tell me how much you want.” Officials concede Baitullah’s money power was such that it was difficult for them to buy his key commanders, as he conveniently outbid them in case of a couple of important commanders.
A senior police official in Peshawar said Baitullah was convinced by al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s foreign enemies that South Waziristan would soon emerge as an independent “Islamic Emirate” and he would be declared as its first Amir.
Intelligence accounts speak of smooth flow of cash to Baitullah from enemy agents, posing as wealthy and highly motivated Arab Muslims, who had established direct connection with the reclusive Taliban commander.
The Taliban sources close to Baitullah Mehsud say a strong cash flow was his most crucial need because his top priority remained an uninterrupted payment of monthly salaries to the families of each of his fighters. Baitullah was supervising a smooth system of cash deliveries ranging from Rs10,000 to Rs20,000 at the doorsteps of his fighters all across Pakistan. Sustenance allowance reached the families of those killed in action.
“Cash pipelines emanating from RAW and Afghan secret services headquarters were terminating in Baitullah-ran accounts, besides cash and weapons infusion,” intelligence officials believed. They estimate Baitullah was paying about Rs600 million in salaries for his fighters every year.
While intelligence agencies see a direct hand of Indian and Afghan secret agencies in financing terror outfits in Pakistan, US officials have consistently accused wealthy individuals in unnamed Gulf countries of providing finances to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Pakistani and Taliban sources say Maulana Ikramuddin, the man who gave his young daughter to Baitullah Mehsud in marriage last year, was the custodian of some of the key financial secrets of Baitullah Mehsud. Ikramuddin was not at home when the US missile struck his residence, killing Baitullah and about 40 of his bodyguards.
Intelligence officials watched with keen interest that when Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman groups clashed in Sararogha, each one of them tried to kidnap Ikramuddin, who was there to arrange a negotiated succession agreement under his umbrella. Ikramuddin, an official source said, was taken away by injured Waliur Rehman.
While foreign cash inflows remained an important source of the Taliban funding, irrefutable evidence showed that Baitullah also ran strong syndicate of select Mehsud tribesmen in Karachi and some Jihadi elements of southern Punjab who were assigned to provide cash injection through bank robberies and kidnappings for ransom.
In one incident two years ago, two private security guards, both Mehsud tribesmen and close associates of Baitullah Mehsud, looted Rs140 million from a foreign exchange company in Karachi. The investigation led the trail to Baitullah Mehsud, who was later approached by a delegation of top Islamic scholars of Karachi for the return of the money. Baitullah obliged the Ulema by returning Rs16.5 million from the looted Rs140 million. The matter is in full knowledge of JUI chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who had organised the Scholars’ meeting with Baitullah Mehsud.
Several important cases of kidnappings for ransom in Karachi and Lahore over the last two years and a majority of kidnappings for ransom cases reported in Peshawar in the past two years were settled when the Taliban or their contacts were paid huge ransoms.
@Zecchetti
I agree with you. The picture of the man standing in green jacket looks more to me like Hakimullah Mehsud. Hopefully he is also dead if the latest news about shootout at Taliban shura is to be believed
Am I the only one who thinks the baitullah mehsud in the first picture looks like someone completely different the the guy with the long hair in the second picture? Look at the eyes: completely different!
What’s going on?