Adil Najam
Our second blog poll seems to have thrown up some interesting, but also confusing, results.
Depending on how you cut the pie, you can make the argument that:
(a) a clear majority of ATP readers want Gen. Musharraf to give up both or one of his twin offices (Army Chief and President) before the 2007 elections,
and at the same time
(b) a clear (but differently configured) majority wants him to play some role – although a more constrained role – in Pakistan’s politics.
(Click image for larger picture)
A total of 114 ATP visitors cast their votes in the poll which was launched very early on Friday and closed very late on Monday. While this is obviously NOT a scientific survey, the results are rather intriguing, even if not representative.
The ATP Poll gave readers five options in response to the question:
The option that got the most votes (41 votes; 36%) calls on Gen. Musharraf to retire at the end of 2006 and fully hand over both offices to his successors. While this was not an absolute majority, it is well over a third of all the votes cast in the poll. By comparison, only 19 of the 114 respondents (16.7%) preferred the option of Gen. Musharraf continuing in both offices simultaneously.
Just over a quarter of the ATP respondents (30 votes; 26.3%) want Gen. Musharraf to continue in only one of the two offices. There seems relatively little enthusiasm for passing the decision on whetehr he shoudl keep both offices or not to the next Assembly (15 votes, 13.2%) or of holding a national referendum (9 votes, 7.9%).
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. However, the results are interesting nonetheless; at least to the extent that they say something about the cohort that is likely to visit a blog such as ATP and vote in such a poll (i.e., educated, mobile, technically savvy, and globally connected Pakistanis).
While one must caution against over-analyzing these results, at least three points are worth noting; if only to nudge a discussion:
- Given that the technocratic classes tend to support (and be highly represented in) military governments in Pakistan including this one, it is noteworthy that ATP’s (technocratic?) readership chose the ‘retirement option’ (36%) for Gen. Musharraf as often as it did.
- There seems to be a sense that Gen. Musharraf should NOT continue with twin-offices into the future. Only one-sixth of the respondents (16.7%) chose this option. While those who opted for a referendum option or having the next Assembly decide (total 21.2%) may be seen as sitting on the fence on this question, those calling for his retiring from at least one office (and possibly both) were in a clear majority (total 62.3%).
- Not withstanding the above, and in fairness, it should also be noted that a majority of the respondents do, in fact, see (want?) some continued role for Gen. Musharraf — if not in both offices, then in at least one. This finding does not contradict the earlier finding; it only adds nuance (and possibly confusion).
So, where does all of this leave us? Maybe I was onto something when I had responded to a questioner in Washington DC by suggesting that public opinion amongst Pakistanis remains divided and uncertain on the future of Gen. Musharraf.
Maybe what these numbers suggest is that those responding to our poll see a continued role for Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan politics; but they would like to see him having less of a role than he has had in the past (also see earlier ATP post on democracy in Pakistan).
What do you think?
To your question, what should General Musharraf do prior to 2007 elections? I suggest the following seven point agenda:
1.Repeal the Hadood and Blasphemey laws
2. Disband the National Security Council
3. Establish a truly independent Election Comission
4. Hold a free and fair election in 2007
5. Hand over power to whoever wins the election
6. Retire on his farm in Islamabd
7. Get involved in a speech circuit and promote his favorite cause(s) like “Enlightened Moderation” etc.
If he does all that, people of Pakistan will for ever remember him and will be grateful to him.
This is a really fascinating survey. Also, love the graphic.
As you suggest, the results pointout that people do not want Musharraf to keep expanding his power but they also do not see any other choice. That means he has the opportunity to do something big. To surprise everyone with a real open election. Maybe get Benazir and Nawaz back and move towards a govt of national unity. Something big is needed. But can he think that big and that bold?
Altamash Mir:
I agree with your point of view. Its a time to bring bottom to top approach (let the people decide what they want !) rather than top to bottom. Gen Musharraf needs to give people this confidence and choice of electing their leadership rather than suggesting what is good for them.
Irshad Haqqani gave a very balanced approach on uniform issue: http://www.jang-group.com/jang/aug2006-daily/02-08 -2006/editorial/col1.gif
No matter how much I like the press freedom in Pakistan, besides a lot of other improvements, I would still prefer democracy over dictatorship….At the end, when one person decides the fate of 130 million, it cant be all right…
(the pic on teh graphics is awesome).
Mush has an opportunioty to turn course. it is clear that evenamongst those (us) who should support him most, there are now doubts. the question is whether he has it in him to do the right thing and make history. no one has given up power before so the odds are against him.