Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
I would like to understand why Imran Khan should not be the new leader of Pakistan? Maybe we should give him a chance to prove what he is claiming to do. Listen to what he has to say… I am not a fan but after analyzing all options, he seems like a very logical choice.
Also does any one know how liberal/secular or conservative he is? & where he stands on Shariya Law type issues? One cant tell from his website.
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rumormongering and intrigue – hallmarks of our political discourse since the beginning of time.
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Yes, and other societies as well…you should visit the U.S.??
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benazir’s interior minister, naseerullah baber, openly claimed credit for launching the taliban.
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Actually, that is probably false. On the contrary, it is well documented that the Taliban tried to have Benazir killed right after Zia’s crash.
wasim, what qualifications does fatima have to enter politics? let her start at the grassroots like an ordinary pakistani and if she can make a difference, good for her.
however, writing newspaper articles in high school debating society style doesn’t do much for me.
she’s a bright girl. she should work for a living. prove herself in a real profession. she shouldn’t try to buy herself a shortcut based on her last name. whoever advises her to do so is really not pointing her in the right direction.
Its tragic that nearly 2 decades down we dont have a decent alternative to the military.
Where Musharafs recent actions speak mismanagement in various areas, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had done the same and settling for them is hardly going to change the course of the spiral that Pakistan has been set into.
Pity that an educated and well less corrupt option still has yet to surface.
rumormongering and intrigue – hallmarks of our political discourse since the beginning of time. no attempt is made to put events in historical or even regional context. just simple, moth-eaten solutions borrowed from advanced gora societies are offered to solve the problems of country, where one leading political personality has appointed hesrself as “chair person for life” and the other nearly succeeded in appointing himself “ameerul momineen”!
nothing that has been going on in pakistan recently has been new and unusual. under benazir bunch of army officers were courtmartialed because they attempted to overthrow the govt and enforce sharia. benazir’s interior minister, naseerullah baber, openly claimed credit for launching the taliban. nawaz sharif passed shariat bill and launched a vigilante movement who went with the name khidmath committee. both bb and ns both took much bigger pungas with judiciary and sectarian and ethnic violence in the 90’s was 100x worse than today. as for corruption, what can you say? here is a report from u.s. congress in which benazir reign was made a case study on corruption:
http://hsgac.senate.gov/110999_report.htm
btw here is an investment tip: if you have news about something happens to musharraf, shorting karachi stock exchange because mkt value will go down by $5-10 billion dollars.