Summer is in full swing in many parts of Pakistan, and an unfortunate treat of summer, i.e. electricity loadshedding, is also here. As I hear from my parents, losing power for a few hours a day is normal routine in Karachi, and the people are only left guessing for how long would they remain without such a necessary utility. Growing up we used to look for loadshedding schedules in newspapers pretty much the same way people look for Iftar timings during Ramzan.
Loadshedding is an unavoidable problem in Pakistan. In the past, excuses given by the administration for loadshedding were lame at best: heating up of transformers, shutting down of power-gen units, unforeseen technical problems etc. I have wished for the administration to just tell the truth about our inability to produce as much power as we consume. There is simply not enough electricity being produced in the country and given the lack of investments in power generation, the shortage of power is not just a nuisance to the ordinary people who need fans and cold water to cool themselves off, but is also stunting the growth of our industry and economy.
It seems this year the government has decided to tell the truth about the shortage of supply and is already thinking of plans to conserve and “manage” the demand. This is a positive change, and I hope citizens will fully support this effort.
According to a report in the Dawn:
The government is set to introduce this week drastic measures for energy conservation, including closure of commercial activities after sunset and possibly two weekly public holidays, to overcome the energy crisis in the country.
This is part of a larger “demand management plan� which will be announced on Monday in Karachi by Minister for Water and Power Liaquat Ali Jatoi and come into force the following day for about four months, subject to approval by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.
It is estimated that while the current shortage of power is roughly 1,000 MW on a total generation capacity of 16,000 MW, the gap is expected to grow to 2,500 MW by the peak of summer.
The government has not been able to plan for the future despite repeated warnings from Nepra and Wapda and failed to firm up enough power generation capacity as the demand continued to increase and the pace of unplanned village electrification was pushed up on political considerations. Installation of two old and rented power stations of about 300MW is the only capacity addition that has taken place in seven years.
Last year, loadshedding was restricted to two-three hours daily in rural areas and between half and one hour daily in most of major cities. The shortage this year has gone up significantly.
It is clear that the gap between our supply and demand would be impossible to bridge, and excessive loadshedding would be necessary, unless our consumption patterns were altered significantly. It is with this consideration that government is attempting to launch a series of actions to reduce consumption, especially at peak hours. This sort of “demand management” is the best thing that the administration can do in the short term, even though it behooves them to think how we will attempt to solve this problem in the long term (the figure above shows the distribution of electricity consumption in Pakistan, 1990-2000).
“Demand management is inevitable now because of a wide gap in energy demand and supply,� the official said, adding: “Demand management is better than loadshedding because it allows people to adjust accordingly, instead of living in uncertainty.�
He said industrial concerns would be required to stagger their weekly holidays on Fridays and Saturdays. This would enable power utilities to supply similar quantities on most days of the week, instead of the lean day on Sunday, he said.
An official close to the secretary for water and power said the ministry had also proposed two weekly holidays – Saturday and Sundays – in the public sector. This will not only be an energy-saving measure but also an alternative for business and commercial concerns against their loss arising out of business closure after sunset. All markets and commercial centres would close at 8pm.
There will be no power supply to wedding halls after 10pm and they will have to arrange their own generators if they desired to prolong their functions. Likewise, public street-lightening will be cut by 50 per cent to save another 25MW of electricity every day.
Various programmes and advertisements will be run on the print and electronic media to persuade the general public to save energy. The government hopes that the measures will effectively bridge the gap between demand and supply and there will be only limited scope for loadshedding.
It is important that all sectors of society contribute equally to the energy conservation program so there is at least some hope of reaching the desired targets. This is a simple requirement off our civic sense and responsibility. I have unfortunately witnessed affluent households running several air conditioners in their homes, while hospitals in certain parts of the same city have had to suspened surgeries in operation theatres because of a lack of power. Shuttering shops a few hours early may feel like a burden on the shopkeepers, but I feel it is worth the effort. Offices, even government ministries, can be kept at elevated temperatures and the AC/s turned down, and perhaps the halogen-lit billboards can also get a break some nights to conserve a few MW? There are many ideas to choose from.
Ofcourse the long term solution lies only in a sustained strategy to conserve, manage, and produce electricity. Pakistan is endowed with natural resources that make electricity production easier than in some other parts of the world. Nuclear-, hydro-, thermo-, wind, solar and other renewables are all possible in Pakistan. But what is needed for the potential to be relaized is a comprehensive energy policy from the government that realizes the need for a long term committment to development of the energy sector. Aside from availability of clean water, this is probably one sector where appropriate government intervention can possibly help.
For more than a decade I have been reading KESC statements about the billions of rupees that have been spent on the network,followed invariably by the promise that load shedding would end by next summer. We are now facing loadshedding for 1-3 hours at least three times a day most weekdays.
An interesting bit of drawing room gossip – the reason the earlier bidders for KESC withdrew was because they discovered they had to pay “bhatta” to the MQM. It is alleged that 6% of KESC’s current revenue is remitted to London. I can’t say whether that’s true or not but it is a substantial chunk of money
Bilal,
I would be interested to find out more about this Boston Compression project to store power.
Anyway, good luck with your company’s product manufacturing in China. The Chinese and other friendly countries can teach us so much about managing our manufacturing and energy industries. All we need is sincerity and political will.
Surprising to see that the Chinese have not invested more heavily in the power sector in Pakistan, since they are already involved in large infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Thank you for the informative post.
Bilal,
Good post. What about fuel cells. I did see it as a potential option for industries where they used natural gas.
Shahran
Zamanov, very useful input. Thanks.
I agree on most everything. While energy can potentially be stored (such as the ideas being developed by General Compression – a Boston based startup in large scale compressed air storage systems), they are not easy to implement in a country like Pakistan. Hence, the key is to manage peak demand and then total demand. It is amazing how poor our home insulation/ventilation systems are.
I am currently working to develop a contract manufacturing facility for our company’s product in China. One thing I learnt right away in my first trip was that most energy intensive industries in China operate during the night shift to use cheapest electricity – and the workers take a break during the day. Similarly, energy is produced as close to location as possible so parasitic losses (losses during transmission and due to koonda systems) are reduced. I bet those measures alone would kick up the power available by ~30-50%.
I am sure you all know that power cannot be stored to be supplied at a given time. Once peak demand is known, the power managers can start demand management by providing the available supply to the most critical demand points (hospitals, schools, large industries, commercial areas, etc.).
Knowing that this government and the current management of KESC are in cahoots, I wouldn’t trust anything they say at this point. The least they can do is publish a simple chart of peak power demand so that all consumers can start operating around the peak usage hours. I seriously doubt that peak demand occurs at 8 or 9 PM at night therefore it is counterproductive to shut down shops early if there is enough power on the grid at that time. If I was an industrialist I would revamp my operations to work at night or early morning. Schools (if any are still open during the summer)should start as early as possible and ensure adequate ventilation in classrooms. Hospitals should schedule surgeries and clinic hours during non-peak times. Offices/banks should seriously consider non-standard business hours where feasible. The city of Los Angeles had to deal with a somewhat similar power crisis not so long ago. Invite someone from their public utility to learn (and implement) how they dealt with their demand issues.
The key is to shift peak demand to a manageable level. As someone pointed above, time based metering should be started. If the peak demand is during 11 AM to 6 PM then rates should be highest for that period. This will encourage people to curtail their power use during the critical peak hours.
Someone really needs to take charge here. Fire the ignorant Power Minister to start with for stating that there is really no crisis here. We are in the middle of a meltdown and this idiot and his cronies in the KESC & WAPDA are acting as if only a few light bulbs are turned off.Fire all the people responsible for their lack of planning by not foreseeing a disaster of this magnitude when even a layman knows there is no growth or development without POWER!
Sincere administrators should explore every possible avenue for temporary power supply for the next 1-3 years and give out immediate tenders for power plants for the next 5-10-15 year period. Minimize coal and oil based plants and focus on gas and renewable sources. Make the solar and other renewable power industries tax free for 5 years and encourage foreign companies (Germany, Netherlands, Iceland, Japan and even China have vast experience with alternate energy sources) to install their solutions which will help with sustainable development for Pakistan.
Make no mistake, this is a full blown crisis and some bitter pills will have to be swallowed in the short term (due to the complete incompetence and belligerence of the current administration) to put this country on the path to energy sufficiency.
God save the republic.