Guest Post By Syed Ahsan Ali.
President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto have been in dialogue for sometime now. The dialogue has so far yielded nothing. As external forces are increasing pressures on both of them to find a way to from an arrangement that can fight greater challenges of militancy in the region, things are moving towards an alliance of moderate and liberal forces in the country.
Pakistan People’s Party is facing risk of losing huge public support by entering in this kind of dialogue. Polls are clearly showing that PPP‘s popularity is dwindling as this dialogue is getting towards its eventuality. Why PPP is doing this? Is there only external pressure or is there any real ideology behind these meneavours.
Benazir Bhutto may not have proven herself a successful Prime Minister in the last two chances she got, but certainly she has a far broader insight into international and national politics. She clearly holds an opinion that it is better to persuade Army to detach itself from the politics in Pakistan than to force it out of this whole set-up. She has two options. One is to create an atmosphere of bargain where she can offer an easy exit to Pakistan army from Presidency and accept democracy in return. Option number two is to launch full-fledge movement of confrontations, rallies, congregations, arrests and protests. Interestingly option two may be what Mian Nawaz Sharif will adopt in next few months if he gets back to Pakistan. Benazir thinks that after what happened in CJP episode it is a lot more easier now to involve Army in a table-talk where for the first time in the history of Pakistan, establishment felt tremors under its feet as a result of civil protests. Some in the Army may also be thinking that they have to find ways to get back to the barracks gracefully.
Now the million dollar question remains what is the most suitable way to find democracy in Pakistan? Protests and agitation or agreements and talks. Benazir‘s option has one bigger risk that Army can get back to the politics any time they want by breaking any kind of agreement and control the reins of governance. Nawaz Sharif‘s thinking on the other hand may be dangerous in this volatile situation of Pakistan but can be lot more fulfilling in the years to come. Public is certainly against any kind of agreement or deal with the establishment by democratic forces but they are missing a point here that it will not be easy at all to send Army back to its barracks by force. Some kind of negotiations with the Army have to bring in to avoid any kind of clashes in these precarious law and order conditions where Army has strong reasons to stay in control.
About the Author: Syed Ahsan Ali holds a masters degree in Economics and is a writer by profession. He occasionally writes for the daily News and the daily Dawn also.
I fully agree with Shafique. I am not a fan of NS, or of BB for that matter. I believe that he (NS) is as selfish, unprincipled, and power hungry as any other political/military leader in Pakistan (including the biggest general, of course). I also believe that either 58(2b) should stay in the constitution, or there should be a two-term limit for the office of the prime minister and president.
That said, what is taking place with respect to the arrest of political workers in Punjab, and other crude attempts to thwart NS’ return to Pakistan, is morally utterly condemnable. Frankly, I fear that the govt would deport NS to Saudi Arabia upon his return to Islamabad or, at the very least, arrest him. Either of these steps would only strengthen NS’ political standing, weaken the govt’s moral position even more, and further polarize the Pakistani society. The Chaudries of Guj may get their wish for imposition of emergency in the country after all.
All this further reinforces my pwn conviction that a durable change in Pakistan’s politics and governance can only emerge as a result of sustained struggle by the people themselves, assuming that the judiciary continues to firmly stand its ground and is willing to uphold the rule of the law at all costs.
May Allah(SWT) Protect Pakistan.
Even though many of us may not wish to see a Constitutional amendment to allow for a third term prime ministership. Nevertheless, there is hardly any disagreement on the question of the right of return. SC ruling is indeed a welcome improvement and the Pakistani Awam hope that this right of return may be the catalyst to the return to the political process that has been missing for very long.
Whether we support NS for a third term PM or not, we must all speak out, protest against any interferences in the internal affairs of Pakistan by Uncle Sam or Saudia or that hustler from the troubled country of Lebanon. Similarly, we should support the movements on the ground that are brewing to thwart the dirty tricks that Mush Inc may have up their sleeves to stop NS right of return and to get a due process under the law.
It is time to put an end to the remote control changing of guards from Washington, DC, with London, Jeddah or Lebanon/Dubai acting as Uncle Sam*s pimp. The people of Pakistan are sick and tired of being sidestepped for the benefit of the vested interest. It is high time, that the Pakistani Awam starts calling the shots!
If the past is anything to go by, one is unlikely to see any outcome that is positive for Pakistan. Our political history is a series of disappointments. Liaqat Ali Khan, Ayub, Z A Bhutto, Benazir, Nawaz in his 2nd term, and Musharraf all held immense promise and potential. All failed. In the topsy turvy piolitical world of Pakistan, that is perhaps the only predictable element.
The reasons, I would argue, are inherent in the societal structure of Pakistan. Irrespective of who is at the the top, the “operational” part of the government consists of the same actors: local feudal/pseudo-feudal elite, local maulvi, corrupt government machinery, and a fatalistic population. The first 2 actors believe, possibly quiet earnestly, that the status quo is the best outcome. Muhammad Din, the final actor, used to seeing adverse outcomes as “Allah ki marzi”, readily accepts, the local government machinery does what it does, i.e., mirror the society while aspiring to become more like the local feudal. Corruption and nepotism are defining features of this society.
Does it then matter who is at the top? Yes, because that detremines whether this system is reinforced, and because external relations policy is set by the leadership. This perspective is therefore the dominat one in determining who amongst the current players is the lesser of evils.
– Musharraf or Musharraf clone, draws its entire support via the feudal/mulla nexus and is most likley to reinforce it. Not good. The external relations tone of such a regime, if left to its own devices will tend towards appeasement of the maulvi. Not good either.
– Nawaz Sharif, the “middle class” hero (though only thing middle class about him are his “thoughts”) doe snot need the local feudal-maulvi nexus as much. Good! In his previous regime, he harboured “Amir-ul-momineen” ambitions, 13th amendment et al, and that would say external relations would follow and islamist tone. Not good!
– Bhutto, from the feudal class but paradoxically draws support from the poor. Her previous stints in government saw her resolving this paradox in an expedient manner; and she supported the feudal nexus. Peoples Party, in spite of all its noble slogans of “roti, kapra, makan” will not challenge the feudal nexus for as long as it is led by feudals. Not good! At the external relations front, BB is by definition West-led, and what is wrong with that is not having an independent view.
– Imran Khan has lots of good ideas, probably will challenge the feudal nexus and will determine a Pakistan oriented external relations policy. Lacks poilitical support.
– Mullahs – lets not even bother
Nawaz Sharif emerges as the better choice. But before you say, problem solved, recall the days of “heavy mandate” last time Nawaz Sharif was in power .
After 60 years, what we seem to be lacking, most of all, are politicians ? we keep on recycling the same old rascals. In a country of 160 million, surely we could find a few good ones ? maybe a new breed of politicians and leaders???
Unfortunately, the way things are going, we may end up once again doing the musical chair rig called Election: Vote Early & Vote Often!
When will we ever learn!
A debate on this subject is taking place in Daily Times involving Ejaz Haider, Dr. Ayesha Sadiqa and yesterday, there was also an editorial on the topic. I disagree with some of the arguments on both sides but thought the links might be worth sharing.
First peace by Ejaz Haider:
here
Response by Dr. Sadiqa :
here
Second article by Ejaz Haider in response to Dr. Sadiqa:
here
Daily times editorial on September 7
here