General Musharraf prepared well-chalked out plan to sustain himself in power which is moving smoothly towards its successful eventuality. Chief Justice reinstated on the 20th of July and two other potential threats to his authority – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – formed ARD to dislodge him from his office. It was a precarious situation for him where he was caught in a no man’s land. Things were looking rosy for democratic powers in the country. Lawyers’ movement showed that it would be hunky-dory for Pakistan if that mood persists for any length of time. But as always, establishment came up with the plan that so far has solved most of the problems of Mr. President.
In my opinion, there are two acts of this drama. It all started when General went to Abu Dhabi suddenly and the nation heard that Pakistan Peoples Party’s Chairperson was having a dialogue with the insignia of military rule in Pakistan just to bargain few personal interests and some power sharing formula. It shell-shocked Pakistani people. Benazir Bhutto persistently said that this dialogue would not affect her overall standing in political arena but independent polls indicate that her popularity is coming down as rapidly as prices are going up in Pakistan. She was so excited about the whole deal package that she made herself isolated. Mian Nawaz Sharif publicly said that it was the breach of ARD to enter into any kind of dialogue with Army ruler and then he decided to form APDM with support of MMA and other smaller parties. But Benazir carried her march towards the attractive deal. She pinned all her hopes with the deal and few days back she came up empty-handed after proclaiming that PML-Q sabotaged her progress towards a deal which could have changed Pakistan’s future. And now after proving herself as the part of Musharraf’s boat she has created a situation for herself where majority of Pakistanis think PPP as pro-Musharraf than anti-Musharraf. This sentiment tarnished Benazir Bhutto to an extent that she may not get an overwhelming majority to form a government without coalition. So first part of the plan was to welcome Benazir in a dialogue and then leave her at the juncture where her popularity crashed and she remains helpless without much support of PML-Q to form any kind of government or sit in opposition. Plan-A accomplished successfully!
Now let us move towards second plan. When Mian Saheb shook hands with Benazir Bhutto to topple Musharraf government, he became another potential threat. Musharraf brought MMA his old allies into the play to strengthen his stay in power to execute his plan-B which he prepared for Nawaz Sharif. MMA and other smaller parties told Sharif family that you become a non-entity in ARD in presence of Benazir Bhutto and you are still a power in Pakistan politics to tackle Musharraf challenge alone right at the time when Musharraf opened a dialogue with Benazir in Abu Dhabi. They also assured him that petition against his exile in Supreme Court would be enough to get him back to his motherland. Timing was perfect. Mian Saheb felt cheated. Prevailing mood of SC and assurances of several parties made him over-confident to confront army ruler from the platform of APDM and he filed a petition against his exile. As expected, SC ordered in his favor. He was then left with no option except getting back to Pakistan. He booked a flight, tied his seat belt and landed at Islamabad Airport with the convoy.
Government already brought Saudi Arabia to help itself. Mian Saheb was exiled again with strict orders of not releasing any political statements against any political issues of Pakistan. So Nawaz Sharif episode is over now at least for three years.
Now General Musharraf is back on his foot. He has no one to challenge his stay in the power except MMA (secretively), MQM, and PML-Q (openly) and all of them are on his own side.
In midst of all of this, one real hope is Supreme Court which is also under immense pressure after few horrible incidents in Karachi court and with lawyers all over the country.
Photo Credits: Photos for this post are taken from the daily Dawn.
Great analysis – I feel these few months the people of Pakistan were utterly confused but the Army general had his plan all chalked out well.
Burns me to the bone watching him get elected yet again, but then due credit for him having the balls to play out all his moves and still come on top – he has proven yet again that the KURSI is the spinal cord of the existence for all Pakistani politicians
Mushy Rocks and will keep on rocking!!!
Best of Luck Mush.
For one thing NS might be home earlier than you imagine. Secondly disengaging with PPP-P at this juncture doesn’t actually achieve anything … The PPP voter will vote PPP regardless.
I think BB is going to have a free hand as far as mobilisation is concerned and her apparent refusal to cut a deal will bolster her lot.
Secondly I am not sure why we always play into populist notions.
What is needed is a concerted effort on all sides to ensure a smooth transition to permanent civilian rule. A violent revolution will further deteriorate civil military relations and will only perpetuate the tug of war.
But let’s forget all this and talk cricket today.
The latest in the drama is that Retired Justice Wajihuddin Ahmed has been nominated by the lawyers as their candidate for presidency. He was the one who resgined at the time of taking oath as PCO. What does this mean?
a) Legitimizing the process
b) Pressurizing the supreme court?
All eyes are on Supreme court now, otherwise Musharraf is set for another termin office. If there is no member to vote against him in the assembly, he will sail through. Remember, the opposition is yet to resign and even if they are allowed to come to courts on October 6, 2007 and the Speaker and Chairman Senate are not there, to whom will they present their resignations.
May God help us! We are proving ourself as terrible people in front of the world yet again. Thanks to those at the helms of affairs!
This analysis seems way too simplistic. Firstly, the meeting between musharraf and benazir in Abu Dhabi on July 27 was not the first meeting. In fact as has been revealed in the media and confirmed by sheikh rasheed, these two had met earlier this year on January 24. This was before the whole Chief Justice saga began. Dealing with benazir was not musharraf’s choice but was done udner pressure from the US and Brits. The then british ambassador Mark Lyall Grant was the facilitator and is said to be present in the first meeting. The yanks were desperate to shore up support for mush as their surveys had indicated that public hatred for him was reaching boiling point. Benazir suited them for her “liberal” views and for being pliant to every edict issued from washington. So this whole ‘deal’ thing was a compulsion for mush and calling it a strategy is a travesty if not ‘naivete’.