Uncertainty Rules Pakistan

Posted on March 11, 2008
Filed Under >Adil Najam, Politics
42 Comments
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Adil Najam

Explaining what is happening in Pakistan, and why, is never easy. Never has it been more difficult than it is now. Talking earlier today to the National Public Radio show Here and Now, it struck me again how difficult it is to articulate any explanation of Pakistan’s politics – not only to non-Pakistani audiences, but to Pakistani audiences too.

Consider the recent news stream. Suicide bomb blasts by extremists kill another 30 in Lahore in yet another dastardly attack. Gen. Musharraf calls the National Assembly to meet on Monday, March 17. Supposedly Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari come to an agreement on the government formation but it is no more clear today who the next Prime Minister will be than it was before the meeting. They also insist that they will “restore” the judges but speculations remain rife on just which judges and just how “restored.”

Depending on who you speak to, you are told that Gen. Musharraf is playing games with the parliament by trying to call the opposition’s hand before they have decided on the Prime Minister issue. Others tell you that it is the politicians themselves who are playing games not only with the cat and house of Prime Ministerial candidates but also with the judges and the lawyers movement. Meanwhile, the extremists continue their deadly game of murder and mayhem as they did in Lahore.

At the end of the day the real losers are – as they always are – the people of Pakistan. It is they who suffer the instability. It is they who are killed. It is they who languish in uncertainty. The costs of uncertainty are never trivial, but it becomes particularly horrendous with suicide bombers blowing themselves up.

What is most disturbing and truly dangerous is that as Gen. Musharraf keeps fighting for his personal survival and position and as the politicians keep fumbling in their indicisive daze, it is the extremist forces that stand to gain by playing simultaneously on the citizen’s dislike for Gen. Musharraf and distrust for the main political leaders of our time.

No one is clear on who will rule Pakistan tomorrow. But it is clear that uncertainty rules Pakistan today. And that is not good for anyone except the extremists who seek to destabilize the country and breed anarchy and chaos.

42 responses to “Uncertainty Rules Pakistan”

  1. Abid Ahmed says:

    Sad thing about Lahore bombings is that people are not reacting right. Instead of protesting against Goverment, they should protest against Mosques and madrasas in every corner of the city that preach haterd and intolerence.

    So people show grow up and quit living in the past. The lamest excuse I’ve been hearing is because of Lal Masjid these things are happening. Stop hating the government which is doing her best to eliminate those murderous terrorists and Start the hate campaign against Mosques and Madrasas that preach haterd.

  2. Ahsan Waheed says:

    Ali Abbas Rizvi

    There have been some key developments with regard to the Pakistan Army since General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani took over as Chief of Army Staff. The wide range of measures that the new chief is taking marks a new era and ethos for the service that was subjected to severe criticism on account of the steps taken by its previous chief during his long tenure. Most of these measures, like the induction of army officers in civilian organisations, were implemented when President Musharraf, wearing two caps at the same time, was embroiled in politics. As a result, the professionalism and the image of the service suffered considerably.

    Some of the pronouncements of General Kayani and decisions have earned him high opinion both in the country and abroad. The general declared that the military would have no role in the February 18 general election, whose fairness and conduct was the responsibility of the Election Commission. The result was that fair elections were held in the country.

    Kayani has said the army will “meet its constitutional obligations in helping the civil administration for maintaining law and order, as and when required”. He also called for the “harmonisation of socio- political, administrative and military strategies” to ensure long-term peace and stability and repeatedly insisted that the will of the people is “decisive”.

    The steps that he has taken include approval of a policy for “de- induction of serving officers seconded to civil departments” and barring senior army commanders from meeting politicians. But there are some other measures that the new chief has taken and that some say would perhaps change the course of Pakistan’s role in the war on terror.
    First, observers point out that the new chief has taken firm measures to eliminate the threat posed by extremists in the country’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These extremists, collaborating with Al-Qaeda, have been openly challenging the writ of the government, especially during the past one year. Some people thought that as army chief, General Musharraf was not decisively moving ahead to counter the growing menace. In fact, people in the west were outright suspicious of his intentions in this regard, openly questioning his loyalties in the war on terror. On the other hand, what cannot be denied is the fact that Pakistan has its own concerns and priorities in this war.

    The tribal areas pose a new challenge to the Pakistan army and also to the people of Pakistan, who enjoy affinity with the tribesmen in terms of religion, culture and traditions. These people are no outsiders; they are our countrymen and only a few of them support the extremists and their views. But observers point out that what we are seeing today is an absolute shift in commitment, with the army now decisively taking on these extremists and routing them as compared to the days when General Musharraf was the army chief. This is what has recently happened in major areas of Waziristan and in Darra Adam Khel, where we have seen the militants on the run. This is happening as the soldiers and officers are now more committed to the job at hand than 10 other tasks they were doing in the past.

    The frequent visits of the army chief to Waziristan also have something to do with it. General Kayani has visited Waziristan at least four to five times since he took over as army chief. As such, he has had better interaction with the soldiers, who are now taking on the mission with clarity of mind and healthier morale.

    Second, the Pakistan army has been facing lots of casualties in its fight against the extremists. In fact, the most recent one was a three- star officer, who died when his vehicle was attacked in Rawalpindi. The casualties on the field have been due to several factors, including lack of proper equipment to take on the insurgents and extremists and focus of training and orientation of the servicemen to fight in the plains. What is interesting is the fact that the army is suddenly losing lesser number of soldiers and officers in its fight against the extremists. Why is it so? We do not know but it seems that it has something to do with the tactics on the battlefield. According to Americans, the army under General Kayani has embraced “new counterinsurgency training and tactics that could be more effective in countering militants in the tribal areas”. In any case, the development is very much welcome.

    Third, General Kayani has declared the year 2008 as the Year of the Soldier and allocated an amount of Rs10 billion for their welfare. Those who have been associated with the army point out that the step was greatly overdue. The decision to declare the Year of the Soldier was taken after several committees submitted their recommendations on how to benefit the soldiers in the best possible way. As it is, the non-commissioned officers and soldiers, besides FC personnel, levies and the police, have been bearing the brunt of the war in Waziristan and other areas. The amount now allocated is likely to be spent on improving their housing, living standards, troops families welfare centres, vocational training for children, ladies clubs, water filtration plants, mini canteen store departments within the residential compounds, garrison medical centres at their doorsteps, etc. It seems the aim is to further enhance the sense of “devotion and own-ness”. Once we see a qualitative difference in the lifestyles of the NCOs and jawans, the overall morale of the service would improve.

    Fourth, in the days of Musharraf when he was both the army chief and the president, criticism on him and other political developments were routinely discussed in army messes. Now because President Musharraf is no longer the army chief and General Kayani is trying to dissociate the service from politics and politicians, it is safe to assume that officers and soldiers are now more interested in discussing professional issues than politics in messes. Also, there are reports that officers have stopped calling politicians into their offices while politicians have stopped visiting them and quoting their names in conversations.

    So far so good. One hopes that the army continues to concentrate on professional aspects and stays away from controversies. But as the past tells us, this would require the help of politicians, who can do a great job by showing maturity and staying away from confrontational politics that we had witnessed during the seventies and the nineties.

  3. Ahsan Waheed says:

    M Ashraf Mirza

    The signing of the Murree Declaration by PPPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari and PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif is being interpreted differently by men of wisdom and intellect like all such documents of political significance. Some have termed it as an instrument potent enough to provide a major boost to democracy and political stability in the country. Others look at it with reservations about the two leaders

  4. Anwer says:

    Simple solutions will not work. Please read this if you want to understand why simply blaming ” Islamic Extremists” instead of looking at the whole picture is pointless. All sides have to agree to stop the violence if there is to be any hope.

    Afghanistan: A River Runs Backward
    by Conn Hallinan
    Wednesday, March 12, 2008 by Foreign Policy in Focus
    http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/12/762 3/

  5. Anwer says:

    http://punkistani.livejournal.com/

    Friday, February 1st, 2008
    ….
    Outside of Punjab, the National Assembly candidate from Peshawar said 10,000 families in one migration traveled from the mountains of Waziristan to Peshawar. That many people in one migration? There’s been a US sponsored civil war in Pakistan between Waziristan and the Pakistani army for a while. Now it has to have escalated into carpet bombing. People don’t migrate so easily.

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