Shaheryar Azhar
(A commentary analyzing the conditions that led to the now open confrontation between PML-N and PPP after the Supreme Court’s verdict disqualifying Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif from electoral politics).
There we go again…
The seeds of this impending implosion were laid in the very victory of democratic forces on February 18, 2008 when a free and fair elections brought eight-years of General Musharraf’s illegitimate rule to an end. The seeds lay in the split in Pakistan’s civil society and democratic forces that took place at the very moment of their victory. These seeds were:
- Inability of large part of the ‘lawyers movement’ to realize that a credible election just took place despite their call for its boycott. That the basis of this election was none other than the ‘political deal’ hammered out between PPP and General Musharraf that they had vociferously decried. Instead of realizing this new political reality and reaching out to the other side for hammering a bargain, they opted for continuation of their confrontational politics as if they were still battling General Musharraf.
- Inability of the leadership of PPP, particularly President Zardari, and its coalition partners (MQM and ANP) to fully appreciate that ‘the deal’ itself was made possible by the struggle of the lawyers movement and other democratic forces and they also needed to reach out to them and somehow bring them in the fold.
For each to have accommodated the other, it was imperative that the NRO and ‘the deal’ itself should have been accepted on one hand and the judiciary, including Chief Justice Chaudhry restored on the other.
Of such short-sightedness are political blunders made. All those who have supported one position or the other, instead of the compromise, are also guilty. This is a collective failure on our part, not just of the political players.
Pakistan is straight heading for a train wreck and the biggest losers will be the (divided) civil society and democratic forces notwithstanding their heroic 60-year struggle.
There is still time for both sides to pull back. Relevant questions each will ask are following:
- Could President Zardari be isolated from a good portion of its leadership and thus the divide between the democratic forces bridged this way?
- If not, would the lawyers movement (with help from political opponents of Zardari) pull back its threatened ‘march and sit-in’ and offer some kind of a compromise?
- Is there a possibility of ‘cooler heads’ in both camps to prevail on each other and a middle ground found?
- Would General Kayani see in this confronation a chance for him personally to enter the corridors of power illegally and thus destroy the remaining Pakistan?
I would plead that each of us work for Option # 3 and avoid the zero-sum game that the infantile Pakistani establishment and political forces inevitably can not stop from playing.
Shaheryar Azher is the Moderator of ‘The Forum’, where this commentary was first shared.
What is happening is, of course, unfortunate, but very predictable too: Punjab is the biggest prize in Pakistan. Anyone who rules Punjab for a considerable amount of time can get to establish himself as an effective ‘administrator’ and can thus rule the whole country on the basis of winning Punjab alone. A mere 5 year stint in power in early 70s’ for PPP ensured that PPP would win Punjab in 1977.
PPP is arguably the largest political party in Pakistan in terms of votes and in-arguably the only political party in Pakistan with a national presence. But it was July 4, 1977 when PPP had its own Chief Minister in Punjab–almost 32 years ago. And in those 32 years, various flavors of Muslim Leagues have ruled mostly with Army’s backing. In short, PPP is now reduced to an ugly and desperate political force. Not only it has been deprived of the crucial vote bank of Punjab but also its two most charismatic leaders (Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto) have been eliminated.
And that is the real reason for the ugly ways of the current PPP govt. The party is effectively shut out from the largest province of the country for too long time. And it is splashing around hard to regain the ‘glory’ days. They are gone. Especially they are gone because Nawaz Sharif raised ‘Jaag Punjabi Jaag’ slogan and that remains etched in Punjab.
I have little doubt that PPP and Zardari are going to be humiliated soon.
However, unless Nawaz Sharif brings Sindh into the fold of federation we are going to see an almost certain acceleration of Sindh’s breakup from Pakistan. Remember that: NS did not win a single seat in Sindh in 2008 elections and almost none outside of Punjab in that elections.
Also, remember that, PPP is the only party in Pakistan which has, willingly or unwillingly, allowed opposition parties to have their own governments in different provinces of Pakistan. That cannot be said about ANY flavor of Muslim Leagues: They have always ruled all constituents of Pakistan’s federation–even in Sindh. And that’s where I fear most.
In the wake of the court order, the confrontation between Zardari and Sharif is likely to increase distraction from the nation’s ailing economy, energy crisis and escalating insurgency of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It seems that Pakistan’s political elite lack any vision to see beyond their noses. Last year, Sharif was so consumed by his desire for revenge against President Musharraf that he joined forces with Zardari to oust him. Zardari took Sharif along for the ride when it suited him. Musharraf’s presence as president stood in the way of absolute power for Zardari. However, the departure of Musharraf ensured that Zardari would now turn his attention to destroy PML(N) and Sharif brothers to consolidate his own power. Even Zardari’s hand-picked prime minister Yousaf Raza Gillani is reportedly frustrated with his autocratic and divisive style. The sad truth is that if Zardari and Sharif had their roles reversed, the results would not have been any different. Their attitudes and actions are very short-sighted and reinforce those who believe Pakistan’s politicians are too selfish, incompetent and corrupt to govern the country for the benefit of its people. Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan and the region are in for a continued rough ride for the foreseeable future. I do hope, however, that the people of Pakistan are sufficiently resilient to withstand the ongoing crises and emerge stronger as a nation.
For more, please read: http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/02/zardari-government- survives-turbulent.html
Ebrahim Sahib the answer to your question you will find in my last post on page 2.This is so unfortunate but true.
So where is the Pakistaniat Poll on how well Pakistan will be after Musharraf. Chooron ko kiya khabar democracy kiya. Tum logon ney chooron ko chuna, ab bhugto.
Geo Cartoon On Current Political Situation…MUST WATCH
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byCN72T-Ffo