Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
I do not think Bibi will make a compromise at this time. It will be politcally damaging to her. Why make a deal with a lame duck dictator who has lost all the credibility?
uh, as if it’s in bibi and baba ji[dictator]’s hand to decide who remains in power?
Keep the famous “war on terror” in mind in which Bush chose Mush to play a vital role to propagate his agenda in Pakistan which he coudn’t fulfill despite of D.Chennay’s very latest confession that Mush put his life in danger to deal with American Intrest, I don’t think so US would make a silly mistake to install yet another secular/liberal puppet in the region. It’s proved that liberalism couldn’t give the desired results despite of using both force and media preaching. Maybe Bush regretting that he trust on Musharraf and believed his macho man style after his “heroic” performance in Kargil.
Keeping in mind recent statements emerged from West about failure of War on terror plan, I think US would try to bring some Zia type person infront who could get in synch with people near Afghan border and used to understand the mindset of Taliban and Pakistani tribes near Afghanistan. They have learnt that Danda wouldn’t be giving them any thing at all, specially when ppl like Ms.Nancy and Mr.Gates are the biggest obstacles in their war plan.
Benazir, Nawaz, Benazir, Nawaz. Same looters and “security risks” again and again. First the hardened fools a.k.a. the voters elect them (supposedly) for 5 years and then spend the rest of time, under the same leadership that they had voted for, complaining how bad the corruption is or how much mehengayee has increased.
Reminds me of the famous urdu saying. “Aazmaye hoey ko jo aazmaye us say Khuda bhe sharmaye”. But if thats what the people want then God is not going to change their condition either, and the visa applicants lines in front of the western countries’ embassies are only gonna increase, and so are the bank balances of the newly “elected” leaders and, if history is a lesson, their family members also.
My ideal set up. (I know its just a wishful thinking).
President
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Abdu Sittar Edhi
Prime Minister
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Ansar Burni.
Or maybe Imran Khan (after taking a ghusal-a-sehat to purify himself from the influences of the munafiq mullahs of MMA) can be replaced with one of them.
Dear Adil & ATP family,
In the midst of all these rumors of deal - I tried to remind about what Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto stood for in a short documentary on google, on his death anniversary. Please click here to watch.
Thanks
For those who wish to know vision of imran khan’s political movement i am posting the following link of his interview with geo.
Here and here.
what i gather from this intreview is that he does’nt want to interefere with legislation. He would rather let the parliment and the house bring about changes in law.
only thing that buys me to imran khan is that he see’s injustice our society, he know here are people above law and he wants to change it.
Education is another imp. point in his manifsto.
after seeing this prog on you tube i chk’d tehrieek e insaaf HP and it does’nt offer much.
bb or no bb, it has to be a newer younger face which has a potential to change the country and will not be bogged down by the **establishment**
:)
Hamza, I suppose it’s all relative. When he was thick with the group I lovingly refer to El-Ba$%ardos-de-Beardos he was going around with them all the time, getting advice from this one super creepy mullah thug.. thankfully, I forget his name.. Now not so much. Also, I think his links with the West and the comfort level he has viz London will probably disallow him from degenerating into a Samiullah, Fazlur Rehman or a similar beast with equally bad breath. (I do NOT jest - Fazlur Rehman can destroy your nasal passages at a good 15 feet with his bad breath… he’s like a walking sulphur mine… it’s uncanny).
I could be wrong. But the lack of a beard, the backing away from the creepy mullah I referred to earlier, no regular attendance at the Tablighi conferences (ala Rafiq Tarar)… these signs give me some comfort.
I’m not sure about Imran Khan. Given the absolute garbage that we’ve had to put with as leaders in the last couple 15 or so years, he can’t be much worse than BB or Nawaz Sharif. However, I lost a lot of respect of Imran Khan after he chose not to support the Women’s Protection Bill. His reasoning for this was that he didn’t want to support any legislation passed by a non-democratic government. Regardless of the type of government in charge, or the incompleteness of the WPB, in my opinion, the WPB offered some respite to women in this country, and so, Imran Khan should have supported it. Instead, he continued his alliance with the Mullahs.
Social Mistri: Why do you say that Imran Khan has been cured of the “Mullah disease”? From what i see in the papers, he still seems closely aligned with them.
By way of update, this from DAWN (7 April):