Summer is in full swing in many parts of Pakistan, and an unfortunate treat of summer, i.e. electricity loadshedding, is also here. As I hear from my parents, losing power for a few hours a day is normal routine in Karachi, and the people are only left guessing for how long would they remain without such a necessary utility. Growing up we used to look for loadshedding schedules in newspapers pretty much the same way people look for Iftar timings during Ramzan.
Loadshedding is an unavoidable problem in Pakistan. In the past, excuses given by the administration for loadshedding were lame at best: heating up of transformers, shutting down of power-gen units, unforeseen technical problems etc. I have wished for the administration to just tell the truth about our inability to produce as much power as we consume. There is simply not enough electricity being produced in the country and given the lack of investments in power generation, the shortage of power is not just a nuisance to the ordinary people who need fans and cold water to cool themselves off, but is also stunting the growth of our industry and economy.
It seems this year the government has decided to tell the truth about the shortage of supply and is already thinking of plans to conserve and “manage” the demand. This is a positive change, and I hope citizens will fully support this effort.
According to a report in the Dawn:
The government is set to introduce this week drastic measures for energy conservation, including closure of commercial activities after sunset and possibly two weekly public holidays, to overcome the energy crisis in the country.
This is part of a larger “demand management plan� which will be announced on Monday in Karachi by Minister for Water and Power Liaquat Ali Jatoi and come into force the following day for about four months, subject to approval by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.
It is estimated that while the current shortage of power is roughly 1,000 MW on a total generation capacity of 16,000 MW, the gap is expected to grow to 2,500 MW by the peak of summer.
The government has not been able to plan for the future despite repeated warnings from Nepra and Wapda and failed to firm up enough power generation capacity as the demand continued to increase and the pace of unplanned village electrification was pushed up on political considerations. Installation of two old and rented power stations of about 300MW is the only capacity addition that has taken place in seven years.
Last year, loadshedding was restricted to two-three hours daily in rural areas and between half and one hour daily in most of major cities. The shortage this year has gone up significantly.
It is clear that the gap between our supply and demand would be impossible to bridge, and excessive loadshedding would be necessary, unless our consumption patterns were altered significantly. It is with this consideration that government is attempting to launch a series of actions to reduce consumption, especially at peak hours. This sort of “demand management” is the best thing that the administration can do in the short term, even though it behooves them to think how we will attempt to solve this problem in the long term (the figure above shows the distribution of electricity consumption in Pakistan, 1990-2000).
“Demand management is inevitable now because of a wide gap in energy demand and supply,� the official said, adding: “Demand management is better than loadshedding because it allows people to adjust accordingly, instead of living in uncertainty.�
He said industrial concerns would be required to stagger their weekly holidays on Fridays and Saturdays. This would enable power utilities to supply similar quantities on most days of the week, instead of the lean day on Sunday, he said.
An official close to the secretary for water and power said the ministry had also proposed two weekly holidays – Saturday and Sundays – in the public sector. This will not only be an energy-saving measure but also an alternative for business and commercial concerns against their loss arising out of business closure after sunset. All markets and commercial centres would close at 8pm.
There will be no power supply to wedding halls after 10pm and they will have to arrange their own generators if they desired to prolong their functions. Likewise, public street-lightening will be cut by 50 per cent to save another 25MW of electricity every day.
Various programmes and advertisements will be run on the print and electronic media to persuade the general public to save energy. The government hopes that the measures will effectively bridge the gap between demand and supply and there will be only limited scope for loadshedding.
It is important that all sectors of society contribute equally to the energy conservation program so there is at least some hope of reaching the desired targets. This is a simple requirement off our civic sense and responsibility. I have unfortunately witnessed affluent households running several air conditioners in their homes, while hospitals in certain parts of the same city have had to suspened surgeries in operation theatres because of a lack of power. Shuttering shops a few hours early may feel like a burden on the shopkeepers, but I feel it is worth the effort. Offices, even government ministries, can be kept at elevated temperatures and the AC/s turned down, and perhaps the halogen-lit billboards can also get a break some nights to conserve a few MW? There are many ideas to choose from.
Ofcourse the long term solution lies only in a sustained strategy to conserve, manage, and produce electricity. Pakistan is endowed with natural resources that make electricity production easier than in some other parts of the world. Nuclear-, hydro-, thermo-, wind, solar and other renewables are all possible in Pakistan. But what is needed for the potential to be relaized is a comprehensive energy policy from the government that realizes the need for a long term committment to development of the energy sector. Aside from availability of clean water, this is probably one sector where appropriate government intervention can possibly help.
The Govt claims that the national exchequer is full, there is no dearth of money. Then what the heck is the problem which is keeping the Govt off to improve the power generating sources? If you have money and are prepared to spend it then why not spend some of it on importing ‘power’ or ‘power generating plants’ on turn key basis from abroad?
Cutting down power on pc’s etc is not a solution to the power crisis because they constitute a negligible percentage of the use.
however, putting off unnecessary lights and electric equipment at the Presidency and other ‘palaces’ of the ruling free booters could help
How about that the rest of nation saves energy and faces load shedding and in the capital lights are on even in the day and countless numbers of electricity guzzling bulbs are used so that joker President of Pakistan, Chief of Army and Patron of Musharraf Qatil Movement (MQM) can prove his muscle power in a rally where all the participants had been hired at Rs.300.
Unless Ice melts at the top, unless the government (President, PM, MNA and MPAs, bureaucrats)themselves start saving energy, all these talks will fall on deaf ears.
Well something can be done at individual level as well. Those who can afford should immediately switch to energy saving appliances for eg. energy saver bulbs and LCD monitors.
There is a study in Japan, that shows their replacement of CRT monitors will save them energy equal to 2 Power Stations. Govt. should subsidize, promote and withdraw taxes from all energy saving appliances.
Since Pakistan has become a ‘consumer country’ and almost ‘everything’ here is imported from China including ‘instructions’ and ‘policies’ from America and the West, i think there is hardly any need for it to produce its own electricity. If there is no industry in the country the available electricity will certainly become surplus and would thus rule out the need for its conservation. If you doubt my statement then just recall telling me if there was any power cut-off during the lat two days. None. Why? Simply because the whole city was burning,,,,,and there was hardly any need for power shut downs. You see we have a simple method for power conservation,,,,,,,shut down everything and wait to die!
For more than a decade I have been reading KESC statements about the billions of rupees that have been spent on the network,followed invariably by the promise that load shedding would end by next summer. We are now facing loadshedding for 1-3 hours at least three times a day most weekdays.
An interesting bit of drawing room gossip - the reason the earlier bidders for KESC withdrew was because they discovered they had to pay “bhatta” to the MQM. It is alleged that 6% of KESC’s current revenue is remitted to London. I can’t say whether that’s true or not but it is a substantial chunk of money
Bilal,
I would be interested to find out more about this Boston Compression project to store power.
Anyway, good luck with your company’s product manufacturing in China. The Chinese and other friendly countries can teach us so much about managing our manufacturing and energy industries. All we need is sincerity and political will.
Surprising to see that the Chinese have not invested more heavily in the power sector in Pakistan, since they are already involved in large infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Thank you for the informative post.
Bilal,
Good post. What about fuel cells. I did see it as a potential option for industries where they used natural gas.
Shahran
Zamanov, very useful input. Thanks.
I agree on most everything. While energy can potentially be stored (such as the ideas being developed by General Compression - a Boston based startup in large scale compressed air storage systems), they are not easy to implement in a country like Pakistan. Hence, the key is to manage peak demand and then total demand. It is amazing how poor our home insulation/ventilation systems are.
I am currently working to develop a contract manufacturing facility for our company’s product in China. One thing I learnt right away in my first trip was that most energy intensive industries in China operate during the night shift to use cheapest electricity - and the workers take a break during the day. Similarly, energy is produced as close to location as possible so parasitic losses (losses during transmission and due to koonda systems) are reduced. I bet those measures alone would kick up the power available by ~30-50%.