Adil Najam
Over the last few days we have resisted posts about the recent political machinations in Pakistan. This is despite the fact pseudo-news pours in ever-more ferociously and ever-more sensationally from Pakistan. Literally by the hour.
This is pseudo-news not only because everything is sensationalized and exaggerated with bombastic Ministers, protesting lawyers, baton-charging policemen, and dumbstruck awam. It is pseudo-news because despite the truly historic nature of what is unfolding, there is little that anyone can seem to do about anything. Events unfold as if they were totally disconnected with public sentiment. As if all the noise is just background accompaniment. In the long run, this can never be. But that is what it seems like right now.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi. Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything - nor has the hope to do so - the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi.
Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.It is of little use, right now, to do yet another post on the Presidential elections or to invite people to vent the same frustrations yet again, and again, and again. Venting can be useful, but onlyto a point. Please, spare us your comments on just how good Gen. Musharraf has been for Pakistan’s economy or just how bad the military is. These points have been made too many times already in the comments, and frankly, if others have not been convinced of your viewpoint on this yet (whatever your viewpoint), then repeating it one more time will really make no difference. It will only waste our bandwidth.
Let us try, instead, to push into more analytically fertile territory. Let us try, at least, to think beyond the slogans about the even larger political questions confronting us. Barring some really big surprise, it seems a fair assumption that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President. Right now, we do not want to hear whether you think it is a good thing or not. Most of you have already made your positions on this clear already. As have we. We want to hear instead on what do you think will happen next? And why? Will things calm down or worsen? And, again, why? Why is the really important analytical question.
To assist in catalyzing such a discussion, we have devised a two part ATP Opinion Poll.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Again, and please, spare us the slogans. Give us your analysis. We understand and share the frustrations that give rise to the slogans, but let us at least try to make something better of this discussion. If you really feel like abusing and shouting, there are plenty of other places to do so. Here, lets focus on analysis. That means, the ‘why’ questions.
Kruman ji, let me guess… you are not in Pakistan… if you were then you would realize that the chances of Wajihuddin getting elected are about the same as the Indus Blind Dolphin having its eyesight restored.
Saieen kya batien kar rahay hein? Have you seen these lawyers up close who are at the forefront of this “movement”? Half of them are not lawyers, and the other half shouldn’t be. Jaibo’n mein pathar, dil mein khibasat aur damagh mein… well… not much other than sava chataa’nk ka bheja.
The problem we have in Pakistan is that all of us suffer from seeing things only in black and white; we are a dualist nation. “If Musharraf is bad, then everyone opposed to him must be good”. Aisay nahien hota saieen. Thand rakhein, everything will be fine. As Michael Jackson sagaciously proclaimed, “Now I believe in miracles, and a miracle has happened tonight - but if you’re thinkin’ ’bout my baby it don’t matter if you’re black or white!”
Musharraf needs to be around for a transition and what’s most important is that Pakistan remains stable and continues to grow. That there’s a continuity of policy and all the investment commitments we’ve gotten and have begun to take advantage of, continue to come our way. While I am sure even in the current administration stuff is skimmed off the top, much like it is anywhere in the world, a lot is being invested in HUGELY important things. Unfortunately, since not all of these are as visible as Yellow Cabs, many Pakistanis dismiss them. But that doesn’t diminish their importance of impact. There should be a separate thread on this, but I’ll just give you one example. I recently visited the Sundar industrial estate which is a short distance outside Lahore. There is room for over 100 factories over there, 22 or 25 of which are already online. The estate is already providing employment to 10,000 people. By the time it comes on line fully (and yes, work is in progress, I’ve seen it myself), it will be contributing 100,000 jobs. But in order to get to this point, first, roads had to be constructed, which took a couple of years, then the estate infrastructure had to be put in place, which took about 2 years, then factories had to be built, which took between 1 and 2 years. NOW you are seeing the fruit of it. So big projects take between 6-9 years to really show benefit. We want that Musharraf should wave his magic wand and all oil prices should come down, corruption should vanish, people should stop having as many babies and a new cadre of brilliant, honest politicians should emerge from nowhere. How fair are these expectations?
Back to Sundar, these are the kinds of projects this government - really principally Shaukat and Musharraf - have invested in. These are sagacious investments not designed to be Yellow Cab type marketing propoganda, but REAL meaningful projects that have long term impact. Sundar is one of three estates being setup JUST in the Punjab. And that isn’t even close to the biggest infrastructural contribution of this government.
Naiee shakal ki talab siraf naiee shakal ki khaatir khatarnak hay. If we led life by this formula then every three years you would want another valima.
Thand rakho, meray bhaiyo’n. Garmia’n guzar gaiee hein.
In the rest of the world elections are a means for people to vent their anger and express themselves. It is an opportunity for a peaceful transitition of power.
In the land of the pure it will lead to more unrest, since the masses have been gagged. An outgoing parliament has elected a president for 5 years. The turmoil and the turbulence will continue. Musharraf will enjoy a 10-14 day honeymoon though. By then either an adverse decision from the SC will spoil the celebration, or the lawyers will reasses, regroup and come back.
Watching Wajihuddin’s campaign, I get the inkling that a new political force headed by CJP’s lawyers and Wajihuddin sahib is in the offing.
Another analysis of Dual office case here Dual Office Case..Dead
Same rituals and culture will prevail as it was before election.
Where our country will end, may be Americans know better than our so called rulers
http://islamabad.metblogs.com/archives/2007/10/awa am_aur_hakoomat_expense_she.phtml
Daktar,
lo ji, PML Q de gawandian nay vote pa ditay ne,
Bhan mati ka kunba,
Many did not vote, this is only PML Q’s elections and
not even valid.
I guess the voting has started.
Does anyone know if the unofficial results will be announced. Or will they also wait till later?
Very interesting analysis in The News:
“ISLAMABAD: General Pervez Musharraf’s use of sweeping powers on Friday to set up “review boards” at Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Quetta and Peshawar to re-examine all criminal cases against the political workers would straightaway benefit 25,000 workers of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) against whom FIRs and court cases are pending in different police stations and courts since 1986.
Although, the widespread perception in the public is that Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari would be the main beneficiaries of the new ordinance as corruption cases pending against them in the courts would be withdrawn and terminated, yet one of the clauses of the ordinance reveals that apart from the PPP, the MQM would be the major beneficiary of this new law.
These 25,000 police cases against MQM workers were registered since 1986 and would now be simply put before the review board being set up at Karachi. A retired judge of the Sindh High Court would head the board.
MQM Minister Babar Ghauri too was given a confirmation by Law Minister Zahid Hamid during the cabinet meeting on Friday, called to stamp its approval of the ordinance before its promulgation by President Musharraf, that the ordinance would benefit MQM workers who are facing criminal cases both in courts and police stations.
As dramatic details of the ordinance start unfolding, the MQM emerges as the major beneficiary of the reconciliation process. MQM is the one political party of the country against whose workers the highest number of cases was registered in the past on charges ranging from kidnapping for ransom to murders.
Parliamentary leader of the MQM in the National Assembly Farooq Sattar, MNA, confirmed on Friday in a Geo talk show “Parliamentary Cafeteria with Asma Chaudhry” that about 25,000 workers of the party were booked during the last many years which, according to him, were cooked-up cases. The talk show will be aired on Geo today (Saturday) during live transmission on presidential elections.
This correspondent also tried to contact Farooq Sattar for comments but he did not attend the call. Federal Minister Babur Ghauri, too, was not available. When contacted by The News, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Dr Sher Afgan Niazi, who briefed the cabinet members on the salient features of the ordinance, said that all cases pending against political workers, including those of the MQM, would be reviewed by the boards being set up under this ordinance.
Earlier, President Musharraf approved the setting up of review boards to reconsider the entire record of the cases and furnish their recommendations. The board, in case of the federal government, shall be headed by a retired judge of the Supreme Court with attorney general and federal law secretary as its members and, in case of provincial governments, it shall be headed by a retired judge of the high court with advocate general or prosecutor general and provincial law secretary as its members.
The board undertaking review of a case may direct the public prosecutor or any other concerned authority to furnish to it the record of the case. Earlier, Farooq Sattar explained in the talk show that MQM workers were greatly discriminated and targeted in the last two decades as about 25,000 FIRs were registered against them “without any justification”.
He also said that MQM had pointed out that only top politicians should not be given the facility of reconciliation by getting cases withdrawn against them. He said the MQM was of the view that the workers of political parties, who have been suffering at the hands of the establishment, should also be given a chance to get their cases reviewed by the boards. He said MQM had also advocated the use of powers by President Musharraf to convert the death sentences of such persons into life imprisonment.”