According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
This was an awful move on the part of Zaradri’s awful government. This will send off a chain reaction within the Taleban, providing positive reinforcement for their un-Islamic efforts. The Taliban’s “Sharia” is not that of Islam. Rather it is a bastardized ideological form of tyranny. Do not approach this issue in any other manner. The Taleban are a ruthless, unIslamic group of ignorant men, period. Sharia law is a beautiful thing, and to implement it in this manner is simply haram.
Great news for the locals, and the opposite for those who are living in and out of country. I can understand that most of you are faithful to your masters and are afraid to say anything against. Come out of the shell and think like a Pakistani if not as a muslim.
This is perfect example of capitulating to the demands of criminals. I stick to old dictum that says rebels and rebellions should be crushed.
Call me conservative but there are certain groups that represents irrationality and talibans are among them.
On a lighter note, haven’t we tried same tactics during Mush era.
What an absurdity extravaganza! We, the people of Pakistan, have been hanged upside down with our heads cut-off. An F.Lullah is going to enforce his ‘Sharia’ on Swat by terrorizing both the people, the rulers of ‘Pakhtoonkhah’, the ‘brave’ Army and Zardari coterie. What a sad demise of ….! No, no, sending us all to ‘heaven’ alive, with heads cut off. What a sad day for my generation who had worked for and seen the birth of Pakistan and now see it ‘Khapping’ in FL Sharia!
“Sochaan di mayyat ley key mein kehrhe ghar jaawaan
Je bolaan te maara jaavaan, je nah bolaan te mar jaavaan”
The Swat situation is very difficult and complex, partly due to dithering by the federal and provincial governments who have a confused strategy giving mixed signals to the militants. And the militants themselves are divided between father-in-law Sufi Mohammad and son-in-law Fazalullah. But they seem less divided than the rest of Pakistan in achieving their goals.
The situation is further exacerbated by the presence of US troops and the almost daily killings by US predator drones that undermine support for Pakistan’s government and military.
A complex situation like Swat requires strong consensus on a coherent strategy with both political and military components working hand-in-hand with the support of Pakistani people. Unfortunately Pakistan’s response to the situation has been very confused. It has neither consensus nor coherence. So the militants have gained an upper hand.
I think we are in a long struggle for control between the Taliban and their version of Shariah and modern civil society based on democratic principles. The Taliban clearly have an upper hand for the moment, at least in Swat. They are not likely to be satisfied with just Swat. They’ll soon be aiming for the entire NWFP and then the rest of Pakistan.
Unless the governments in the region learn to deal with such insurgencies, I fear that the entire region will descend into chaos and larger civil war. It can only lead to one thing: A cry by ordinary Pakistanis for an authoritarian military dictatorship that uses repression and organized death squads to restore some semblance of order at the cost of a lot of basic freedoms. The question will be as to who can fill the vacuum? The repressive Taliban or autocratic military generals? Pakistanis will most likely be forced to trade whatever freedoms they have for more security.