According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
Let’s face it: Pakistan Army failed. It failed in every prospect. General Kayani deserves to be stripped to the ranking to Jawaaan. He failed us and he failed Pakistan. My pride in Pakistan army is shattered! I will never count on Pakistan army if war starts. Taliban are much much more powerful than Pakistan army. Maybe Pakistan should recruit them in Army.
The extremists have effectively won for the time being. They have successfully divided society. They have convinced many people, including educated ones that there’s is a sincere struggle for Islam. Usman Kadiri talks about most people being on their side apart from the satanic “English speaking intelligentsia”…..that remains to be seen. Most people seem to be quite terrified and rightly so, of their numerous beheadings, destruction of schools (it doesn’t matter if they’re boys or girls) and other acts of butchery.
On the other hand the stupidity of our govt and NATO forces also seems neverending. They have become unwitting experts in the art of creating more terrorists. Guerrilla warfare cannot be fought against without winning the people over and they don’t seem to be doing that at all. This situation will continue to get worse for a decade or so untill some holistic strategy is produced and ACTUALLY implemented….Pakistan will remain a dangerous, unstable place for many years to come…:(
The military needs to use the temporary peace gained through this surrender to militants to plan a more effective strategy against them. A good question will be why did military ops in Bajaur succeed while the one in Swat failed?
A deal like this completely undermines what we’ve been trying to do in Pakistan for ages. There is a reason we have a democratic system, albeit a broken one. If a group of people have an ideology they think is superior, let the public decide whether they should be in power. This manner of terrorizing regions and then gaining legitimacy by getting recognition from the government cannot and should not happen.
But we all know what will happen if they ever ran in an election, an ideology that wants to lock up and alienate the entire female population of a country will never get support.
If we let this cancer grow, there won’t be a Pakistan to save before long.
“They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security”
Benjamin Franklin
Before I write anything else, I must say that I did not know Musa Khan’s name before this tragedy but he is no less a martyr than those Pakistani soldiers who are dying on the front line. He fought valiantly with his pen and might of his pen was not liked by some people. The manner in which his name has been splashing all over television screens in last few hours is just a reminder that there are powerful forces who do not want the issue in Swat to settle. May he rest in peace and remembered for ever along with all those who sacrifised there lives to save Pakistan from the evil clutches of tyranny of the Taliban.
Now I shall come to topic that I must also write about as a matter of urgency because Pakistan is at a defining moment in its history where its people have taken up arms to enforce a law which its elite promised it for a long time.
Pakistan’s independence moment was based on the promise that once liberated it will run on Sharia law but after its independence, elites went back on their promise and from day one they tried to make it a secular country against the wishes of its people.
Punjab, Sindh & Azad Kashmir, being traditionally secular societies, embraced this campaign of secularisation whole heartedly but Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP), Balochistan & Federally Administered Tribal Areas on the border with Afghanistan are traditionally religious societies and religion plays a vital role in their day to day life. Stripping them of their way of life was always going to be a problem and as we saw in Iran, if the secularisation is forced on the people, revolution is the ultimate result.
Pakistan is certainly not there yet but the path on which this country has started to move certainly leads to a complete change in guard and a revolution may be the ultimate result of the present upheaval.
How would any such event effect the relationship between different parts of the federation, can this country be run on the basis of one country two systems is a vital question of our age.
Is it possible that Punjab, Sindh and Azad Kashmir have democratically elected governments and governments in Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP), Balochistan & FATA are appointed by the Sunni Imams of the respected provinces given that Sufi Muhammad despises democracy and wants autocratic rule in Malakand Agency.
As a federation, Pakistan will have to alter its constitution radically to allow for Sharia law in some federal units and secular law in others.
Malaysia & Nigeria are the examples which come to mind where some federal units have sharia law so perhaps the same model could be adopted in Pakistan as well with local referendum in each federal unit of the country to decide if the unit in question does want Sharia Law or not. In my view it is definitely the time to ask this question and let the people decide their own fate.
But as long a the war next door is going on, we must not event pretend that anything which happens in Pakistan will effect the overall militancy levels in the country, Pakistan must hope that NATO will succeeded in Afghanistan in eradicating Taliban and bring peace to that country. One can argue that we are in a chicken and egg situation, Afghan government believes that Pakistan’s tribal areas are the source of all militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan thinks that as long as Afghanistan is unstable, nothing good will happen in Pakistan.
Who is truthful in their claims, only time will tell.
To read further about Pakistan and the region in general please visit http://real-politique.blogspot.com
I think these peoples must not give a chance. They are not a true Muslim and not even a true human. hey are just bunch of illiterate people who have been misguided by some other devil minded extremist. If we give them a chance it means we are allowing them to spread their evil on other places also and being as a true Muslim it hurts when their foolish acts comes on media.
Comments on this post reveal how alienated our English speaking intelligentia is from the masses!
Name calling does not serve any purpose. You may call these people as “gun waving terrorists” but do not forget that most of the Pakistanis do not see them this way. They look up to them as brothers committed to Islam. It is only a miniscule elite that feels threatened by demand for Islamic law. It is our English speaking elite who are holding the country to ransom with the help of their western friends - not the other way round.