General Musharraf prepared well-chalked out plan to sustain himself in power which is moving smoothly towards its successful eventuality. Chief Justice reinstated on the 20th of July and two other potential threats to his authority – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – formed ARD to dislodge him from his office. It was a precarious situation for him where he was caught in a no man’s land. Things were looking rosy for democratic powers in the country. Lawyers’ movement showed that it would be hunky-dory for Pakistan if that mood persists for any length of time. But as always, establishment came up with the plan that so far has solved most of the problems of Mr. President.
In my opinion, there are two acts of this drama. It all started when General went to Abu Dhabi suddenly and the nation heard that Pakistan Peoples Party’s Chairperson was having a dialogue with the insignia of military rule in Pakistan just to bargain few personal interests and some power sharing formula. It shell-shocked Pakistani people. Benazir Bhutto persistently said that this dialogue would not affect her overall standing in political arena but independent polls indicate that her popularity is coming down as rapidly as prices are going up in Pakistan. She was so excited about the whole deal package that she made herself isolated. Mian Nawaz Sharif publicly said that it was the breach of ARD to enter into any kind of dialogue with Army ruler and then he decided to form APDM with support of MMA and other smaller parties. But Benazir carried her march towards the attractive deal. She pinned all her hopes with the deal and few days back she came up empty-handed after proclaiming that PML-Q sabotaged her progress towards a deal which could have changed Pakistan’s future. And now after proving herself as the part of Musharraf’s boat she has created a situation for herself where majority of Pakistanis think PPP as pro-Musharraf than anti-Musharraf. This sentiment tarnished Benazir Bhutto to an extent that she may not get an overwhelming majority to form a government without coalition. So first part of the plan was to welcome Benazir in a dialogue and then leave her at the juncture where her popularity crashed and she remains helpless without much support of PML-Q to form any kind of government or sit in opposition. Plan-A accomplished successfully!
Now let us move towards second plan. When Mian Saheb shook hands with Benazir Bhutto to topple Musharraf government, he became another potential threat. Musharraf brought MMA his old allies into the play to strengthen his stay in power to execute his plan-B which he prepared for Nawaz Sharif. MMA and other smaller parties told Sharif family that you become a non-entity in ARD in presence of Benazir Bhutto and you are still a power in Pakistan politics to tackle Musharraf challenge alone right at the time when Musharraf opened a dialogue with Benazir in Abu Dhabi. They also assured him that petition against his exile in Supreme Court would be enough to get him back to his motherland. Timing was perfect. Mian Saheb felt cheated. Prevailing mood of SC and assurances of several parties made him over-confident to confront army ruler from the platform of APDM and he filed a petition against his exile. As expected, SC ordered in his favor. He was then left with no option except getting back to Pakistan. He booked a flight, tied his seat belt and landed at Islamabad Airport with the convoy.
Government already brought Saudi Arabia to help itself. Mian Saheb was exiled again with strict orders of not releasing any political statements against any political issues of Pakistan. So Nawaz Sharif episode is over now at least for three years.
Now General Musharraf is back on his foot. He has no one to challenge his stay in the power except MMA (secretively), MQM, and PML-Q (openly) and all of them are on his own side.
In midst of all of this, one real hope is Supreme Court which is also under immense pressure after few horrible incidents in Karachi court and with lawyers all over the country.
Photo Credits: Photos for this post are taken from the daily Dawn.
Don’t you think that based on your analysis, we should favor Musharraf. This country will not find any body else to steer this corrupt nation and the so called politicians.
Viqar Minai, thanks for saying the obvious.
I agree that the govt did its homework well. It has manouvered itself into a position where it can successfully rig the elections again and not raise an eyebrow abroad.
Punjab is going to be given to PMLQ, who can also expect a small share at the center with PPPP. The latter, with MQM dutifully in toe, will also be handed Sindh on a platter. If Maulana Diesel behaves, his party will be allowed to elect a few seats in NWFP and Balochistan to keep him pacified. PPP-Sherpao share would significantly increase, to the point that they can form a coalition govt in NWFP with either PPPP or Maulana Diesel.
PML-N, JI, ANP, and TI will be given the rough end of the stick.
Euophria would last for a little while; but the future does not look promising for the general. There is an apt saying in Urdu for the likes of im:
siyAna kavva hamEsha gobar par girtA hae
Don’t expect much from the courts; they seem to have been successfully neutralized. The only hope is from the lawyer’s movement, civil society, and – surprise, surprise – the jihadists in the North. The latter, it is a safe bet, will continue to give a thrashing to the nApak armed forces in FATA, to the point that the “civilised” general and his contrived administration will become the laughing stock of every Pakistani household, and abroad.
Clever machinations do not come to fruition; such is the law of nature.
I enjoyed your summary and the activities talked about here very much . File this one under political satire….
Syed Bhai,
Interesting post, I agree Mush has capitalised owing to BB and Mullah Diesel selling their souls to the devil. But all is not lost – Pakistan’s judgement day is here.
As Pakistanis we have two choices either we stand together not for the APDM or anyone else but for Pakistan itself. Alternatively we can moan about our state, sit idly on our arses and not take to the streets and by design or default we can see Mush and his regime usher in a new dawn of destruction and bloodshed.
This is not a time for weak actions, we must fight for a sovereign Pakistan free from the clutches of GHQ, free from US imperialist designs and fight for the Quaid’s Pakistan. As Roedad Khan hits the nail on the head when he says ‘military rule- the fetish worship of one man ? is a passing phase. It is an anachronism in the 21st century and cannot long endure. It would be foolish to disguise the gravity of the hour. It would be still more foolish to lose heart and courage. The hour will soon strike, and its solemn peal will proclaim that the night is past and dawn has come. I feel as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow that we shall win’
I have done my bit by producing an open letter addressed to Mush (see this link – http://www.otherpakistan.org/today2.html )
I also sent it to the Presidential website, I expect nothing but I had to do something. Dark shadows are all over, lets hope the people are ready to bring in some light by standing with the new lawyers movement and ridding us of Mush forever.
I leave you with the words of the great Archbishop Desmond Tutu to ponder who said ‘if you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor’ so come out to the streets this week, resist Mush and usher in a new dawn, stay at home then you deserve all you get and worse.
Go Musharraf Go!
Feimanallah
Wasim