General Musharraf prepared well-chalked out plan to sustain himself in power which is moving smoothly towards its successful eventuality. Chief Justice reinstated on the 20th of July and two other potential threats to his authority – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – formed ARD to dislodge him from his office. It was a precarious situation for him where he was caught in a no man’s land. Things were looking rosy for democratic powers in the country. Lawyers’ movement showed that it would be hunky-dory for Pakistan if that mood persists for any length of time. But as always, establishment came up with the plan that so far has solved most of the problems of Mr. President.
In my opinion, there are two acts of this drama. It all started when General went to Abu Dhabi suddenly and the nation heard that Pakistan Peoples Party’s Chairperson was having a dialogue with the insignia of military rule in Pakistan just to bargain few personal interests and some power sharing formula. It shell-shocked Pakistani people. Benazir Bhutto persistently said that this dialogue would not affect her overall standing in political arena but independent polls indicate that her popularity is coming down as rapidly as prices are going up in Pakistan. She was so excited about the whole deal package that she made herself isolated. Mian Nawaz Sharif publicly said that it was the breach of ARD to enter into any kind of dialogue with Army ruler and then he decided to form APDM with support of MMA and other smaller parties. But Benazir carried her march towards the attractive deal. She pinned all her hopes with the deal and few days back she came up empty-handed after proclaiming that PML-Q sabotaged her progress towards a deal which could have changed Pakistan’s future. And now after proving herself as the part of Musharraf’s boat she has created a situation for herself where majority of Pakistanis think PPP as pro-Musharraf than anti-Musharraf. This sentiment tarnished Benazir Bhutto to an extent that she may not get an overwhelming majority to form a government without coalition. So first part of the plan was to welcome Benazir in a dialogue and then leave her at the juncture where her popularity crashed and she remains helpless without much support of PML-Q to form any kind of government or sit in opposition. Plan-A accomplished successfully!
Now let us move towards second plan. When Mian Saheb shook hands with Benazir Bhutto to topple Musharraf government, he became another potential threat. Musharraf brought MMA his old allies into the play to strengthen his stay in power to execute his plan-B which he prepared for Nawaz Sharif. MMA and other smaller parties told Sharif family that you become a non-entity in ARD in presence of Benazir Bhutto and you are still a power in Pakistan politics to tackle Musharraf challenge alone right at the time when Musharraf opened a dialogue with Benazir in Abu Dhabi. They also assured him that petition against his exile in Supreme Court would be enough to get him back to his motherland. Timing was perfect. Mian Saheb felt cheated. Prevailing mood of SC and assurances of several parties made him over-confident to confront army ruler from the platform of APDM and he filed a petition against his exile. As expected, SC ordered in his favor. He was then left with no option except getting back to Pakistan. He booked a flight, tied his seat belt and landed at Islamabad Airport with the convoy.
Government already brought Saudi Arabia to help itself. Mian Saheb was exiled again with strict orders of not releasing any political statements against any political issues of Pakistan. So Nawaz Sharif episode is over now at least for three years.
Now General Musharraf is back on his foot. He has no one to challenge his stay in the power except MMA (secretively), MQM, and PML-Q (openly) and all of them are on his own side.
In midst of all of this, one real hope is Supreme Court which is also under immense pressure after few horrible incidents in Karachi court and with lawyers all over the country.
Photo Credits: Photos for this post are taken from the daily Dawn.
Aqil,
I am torn on this one. I hear you but, after taking everything into consideration, resigning and boycotting the election seems to me to be the best option. If they tried to vote for Justice Wajih, it is probable that they will fall short of electing him anyway. And the more they legitimize the process by participating in it, the more Musharraf and his cronies are going to crow that it was a genuine democratic elctoral execise. For sure, he will project this impression, for all it is worth, to the outside world.
Let us face it; he is bent upon winning and probably has the means to do so by hook or by crook. He has not toiled this far just to be shown the door by a more principled dilli wala.
Same goes for his deal with PPPP which, I believe, is already in place. The rest of the tamAsha is just a nATak being played out to pull wool over everyone’s eyes.
Whatever minimal hope still lingers on, lies in denying any moral legitimacy to this sham, and in keeping the door open for continuing the fight in courts. In the end, it may still not be good enough, but there is no shame in going down valiantly; we saw that earlier today in another arena.
Viqar:
Actually, I feel that resigning is only going to help Musharraf. He will shamelessly go ahead with the election and claim that he has been elected by the majority of parliamentarians. The opposition will cry fowl but that won’t make any difference to Musharraf.
If I were in the opposition, I would have supported the candidate by the lawyers, tried to convince all the MNAs in the opposition parties to vote in his favour in addition to trying to woo a few ppl in PML-Q and PPP-patriots by urging to vote in favour of the lawyers candidate in return for some carrots. PPP, PML-N, MMA and the nationalists, along with some lotas from PML-Q and PPP patriots, and who knows, Mush could even lose the election. But for that you would need the opposition to be fully united behind a single candidate. In my opinion, short of full street protests, this is the opposition’s only hope of threatening Mush since resigning by itself will achieve nothing.
aah! finally, someone see’s through the veil!
i had long suspected this sort of play being played, where divide and rule, the one thing which has proven to bring anyone/everyone in this nation down, was the order of the day, but i could never put it on so eloquently!
hats off!
Aqil,
“What?s the need for them to announce their candidate when the man picked by the lawyers has the respect and credibility to be the concensus person for the opposition?”.
Perhaps because it provides a good excuse for not resigning from the national assembly.
Good politics ;-).
Looks like PPP is also trying to split the opposition on the presidential candidate. What’s the need for them to announce their candidate when the man picked by the lawyers has the respect and credibility to be the concensus person for the opposition?