General Musharraf prepared well-chalked out plan to sustain himself in power which is moving smoothly towards its successful eventuality. Chief Justice reinstated on the 20th of July and two other potential threats to his authority – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – formed ARD to dislodge him from his office. It was a precarious situation for him where he was caught in a no man’s land. Things were looking rosy for democratic powers in the country. Lawyers’ movement showed that it would be hunky-dory for Pakistan if that mood persists for any length of time. But as always, establishment came up with the plan that so far has solved most of the problems of Mr. President.
In my opinion, there are two acts of this drama. It all started when General went to Abu Dhabi suddenly and the nation heard that Pakistan Peoples Party’s Chairperson was having a dialogue with the insignia of military rule in Pakistan just to bargain few personal interests and some power sharing formula. It shell-shocked Pakistani people. Benazir Bhutto persistently said that this dialogue would not affect her overall standing in political arena but independent polls indicate that her popularity is coming down as rapidly as prices are going up in Pakistan. She was so excited about the whole deal package that she made herself isolated. Mian Nawaz Sharif publicly said that it was the breach of ARD to enter into any kind of dialogue with Army ruler and then he decided to form APDM with support of MMA and other smaller parties. But Benazir carried her march towards the attractive deal. She pinned all her hopes with the deal and few days back she came up empty-handed after proclaiming that PML-Q sabotaged her progress towards a deal which could have changed Pakistan’s future. And now after proving herself as the part of Musharraf’s boat she has created a situation for herself where majority of Pakistanis think PPP as pro-Musharraf than anti-Musharraf. This sentiment tarnished Benazir Bhutto to an extent that she may not get an overwhelming majority to form a government without coalition. So first part of the plan was to welcome Benazir in a dialogue and then leave her at the juncture where her popularity crashed and she remains helpless without much support of PML-Q to form any kind of government or sit in opposition. Plan-A accomplished successfully!
Now let us move towards second plan. When Mian Saheb shook hands with Benazir Bhutto to topple Musharraf government, he became another potential threat. Musharraf brought MMA his old allies into the play to strengthen his stay in power to execute his plan-B which he prepared for Nawaz Sharif. MMA and other smaller parties told Sharif family that you become a non-entity in ARD in presence of Benazir Bhutto and you are still a power in Pakistan politics to tackle Musharraf challenge alone right at the time when Musharraf opened a dialogue with Benazir in Abu Dhabi. They also assured him that petition against his exile in Supreme Court would be enough to get him back to his motherland. Timing was perfect. Mian Saheb felt cheated. Prevailing mood of SC and assurances of several parties made him over-confident to confront army ruler from the platform of APDM and he filed a petition against his exile. As expected, SC ordered in his favor. He was then left with no option except getting back to Pakistan. He booked a flight, tied his seat belt and landed at Islamabad Airport with the convoy.
Government already brought Saudi Arabia to help itself. Mian Saheb was exiled again with strict orders of not releasing any political statements against any political issues of Pakistan. So Nawaz Sharif episode is over now at least for three years.
Now General Musharraf is back on his foot. He has no one to challenge his stay in the power except MMA (secretively), MQM, and PML-Q (openly) and all of them are on his own side.
In midst of all of this, one real hope is Supreme Court which is also under immense pressure after few horrible incidents in Karachi court and with lawyers all over the country.
Photo Credits: Photos for this post are taken from the daily Dawn.
This analysis is a classic example of how revisionist history is written and how it always finds its supporters. You start with the known end-result and then reconstruct past events around unknowables and conspiracy theories to get to a known beginning. Read backwards, it smells like pure genius when it’s nothing of the sort. It’s like when people say that 9/11 was deliberately brought about so that the US can go into Iraq. The middle makes no sense but no one can deny the beginning and the ending.
As Atif suggested, the piece works as satire but not as analysis and I don’t know whether the author’s tongue was touching his cheek or his palate when he wrote this.
Inshallah Musharraf will be re-elected President and the coalition government will continue. They have been through some very tough times, but have held together and mostly persevered.
The opposition is divided and devoid of credibility, yesterday’s crooks now disguised as democrats. If Musharraf is careful, he can handle the opposition.
Well Viqar, all I can say is that we will have our finger crossed. In any case, the choice of a better strategy aside, the first thing is whether the opposition can unite on a single course of action.
Aqil,
I realize that this is a slippery slope. But it is also very apparent to me that whenever the set up changes, some fairly massive civil action will have to be part of the story any way.
My principal concern with not resigning is that the possibility of any further legal action will be pre-empted if the MNAs stay in the parliament and vote for Justice Wajih. The govt will contend, with some justification, that it is a case of sour grapes; that the opposition contested the election and, when they lost, they are now refusing its results.
I am not a legal expert of course, but it seems to me that if the civil movement, through Justice Wajih, calls into question the eligibility of the general at the time of scrutinizing of papers (9/29 I believe) then, even if the EC denies their appeal, they may have recourse to further appeal in the SC after 10/6.
It is true, as you point out, that there is risk involved in this, particularly if any part of the opposition – say PPPP or JUI-F – does not resign. Perhaps the opposition should do the necessary leg work this time and make sure all their bases are covered on this one.
If the entire opposition quits then there is a good possibility that people will back their protest, and this may be enough to make a difference.
Perhaps the SC will find its spine one more time. Who knows …
Viqar:
The option of resigning and boycotting the election will work only if it is backed by massive street protests that paralyze the government.
I think the opposition can try street protests (assuming that it has the capability of mobilizing enough supporters) while simultaneously getting its MNAs and MPAs to vote in favour of a concensus candidate. However, if it boycotts the election, then it will be putting all eggs in a single basket (the ability to paralize the govt through protests), the failure of which will allow Musharraf to easily sail through. Since the opposition’s recent performance in mobilizing the masses has not been very inspiring, that won’t be a wise thing to do.