Adil Najam
Over the last few days we have resisted posts about the recent political machinations in Pakistan. This is despite the fact pseudo-news pours in ever-more ferociously and ever-more sensationally from Pakistan. Literally by the hour.
This is pseudo-news not only because everything is sensationalized and exaggerated with bombastic Ministers, protesting lawyers, baton-charging policemen, and dumbstruck awam. It is pseudo-news because despite the truly historic nature of what is unfolding, there is little that anyone can seem to do about anything. Events unfold as if they were totally disconnected with public sentiment. As if all the noise is just background accompaniment. In the long run, this can never be. But that is what it seems like right now.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything – nor has the hope to do so – the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi. Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.
Discussion seems to be of little use. So little that it merely causes further aggravation. Since analysis does not matter, it is swiftly replaced by slogans (naara-baazi). Look at the TV talk shows, read the op-eds, or scan the comments in our previous posts (or the posts themselves). The same people keep repeating the same points over and over again. On all sides. And since no one is really trying to convince anyone of anything – nor has the hope to do so – the arguments get increasingly more futile, ever more heated, and ever more prone to naara-baazi.
Our comments section are a testimony to this frustration. This is frustration that you also see on the streets of Pakistan. Frustration that comes from the belief that you are not being heard. That you will not be heard no matter what you do or say. You shout ever louder and repeat yourself ever more ferociously, as if the merit of an argument is to be measured by the decibel or as if things will become more believable if you repeat them more loudly. Since no one is trying to convince anyone of anything anyhow, the best you can do is to try to get in the last word.It is of little use, right now, to do yet another post on the Presidential elections or to invite people to vent the same frustrations yet again, and again, and again. Venting can be useful, but onlyto a point. Please, spare us your comments on just how good Gen. Musharraf has been for Pakistan’s economy or just how bad the military is. These points have been made too many times already in the comments, and frankly, if others have not been convinced of your viewpoint on this yet (whatever your viewpoint), then repeating it one more time will really make no difference. It will only waste our bandwidth.
Let us try, instead, to push into more analytically fertile territory. Let us try, at least, to think beyond the slogans about the even larger political questions confronting us. Barring some really big surprise, it seems a fair assumption that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President. Right now, we do not want to hear whether you think it is a good thing or not. Most of you have already made your positions on this clear already. As have we. We want to hear instead on what do you think will happen next? And why? Will things calm down or worsen? And, again, why? Why is the really important analytical question.
To assist in catalyzing such a discussion, we have devised a two part ATP Opinion Poll.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Again, and please, spare us the slogans. Give us your analysis. We understand and share the frustrations that give rise to the slogans, but let us at least try to make something better of this discussion. If you really feel like abusing and shouting, there are plenty of other places to do so. Here, lets focus on analysis. That means, the ‘why’ questions.
Please read Other Pakistan’s most recent post titled
Salamalikum,
PatExpat…it’s odd that you had to write “most of them mohajirs” when talking about Musharraf’s cronies. Why was that? Besides, if I’m not mistaken Kiani is not a muhajir and got the most important post. Going by your line of thinking, if I’m reading it correctly, it should’ve been a muhajir.
“If the masses want BB; masses should get BB…”.
It is a surprise you seem to be thinking real elections will be held. You think anyone’s vote would count? It’s all drama and waste of tax payers’ money. The way Mush and BB are trying to make a deal to share power, does it sound like they even think for a second that BB won’t “win”. This is no democracy and election results have been long decided…it’s already rigged. This is dictatorship disguised as a civilian government but with two heads instead of one. Anyone who thinks these elections will bring even a mere semblance of democracy is living in the lalal land. Allahu Alam
My predictions… Musharraf will have his way. Benazir will be the next PM in an engineered election. Shortcut Aziz will go back to his pals in CB, make merry with more privatizaton deals as he and Musharraf built their booty. The Chaudhry’s will be dumped. They will huff and puff, but will go to the doghouse. Nawaz Sharif will remain in exile for another 5 years. And things roll on..
Thankfully, along with seeing the real face of dictator, people have also realized that democracy though imperfect yet a better system of rule (at least I see more people now talking about democracy on this blog than when it started). However, these are very few. Most of the middle class (almost all of my friends and colleagues are at very good positions in Corporates and Banks in Pakistan) is indifferent. I talk to them and the only thing they are worried about is corporate ladder? The lawyers movement, the May 12 massacre, the contempt of courts; these are just news items. As long as they are getting their pay cheque at the end of the month, all is well.
Finally, we need to respect other’s opinion. Each vote carries equal weight. If the masses want, BB; masses should get BB despite her corruption. I mean why should my vote when I am sitting in my drawing room posting on this blog and dont give two cents about what happens in the rest of the country carry more weight than the guy who is very much affected by it because he can’t earn a daily wage to run his house when there is lawlessness, corruption, loadsheddings, etc.
Adil,
Its good to see you and others coming around to the fact that Mush was and is only interested in elongating his rule in Pakistan, a point which a very few of us are driving at from the beginning but the educated don’t seem to bother.
Before talking about getting Musharraf re-elected as a President, you all should have been flabbergasted Musharraf and BB being bedfellows. Why would you consider Mush sincere to Pakistan if he agrees to dismiss all the corruption cases. The money belonged to the people of Pakistan yet Mush has forgiven it. This shows that his hand is as much in the till as BBs.
Regarding, what will happen? Well, for most of the educated middle class and elite class, nothing. Stock Market is booming, salaries are increasing. Why should we bother if there is lawlessness, or the staple is out of reach of common man, corruption has increased, there is no democracy etc?
By ensuring his near and dear ones are in strategic army posts (most of them mohajirs), Musharraf has ensured loyalty from Army.
Obviously, with low saving rates , high budget deficits, increased credit culture, rising corruption things will get worse few years down the line. Two things can happen
One, either some military general will step forward, dethrone Musharraf, promising elections in 90 days, people dancing in the streets but nothing will change except for replacing one dictator with another.
Or, the entire military top brass (loyal to Mush) will be wiped off most probably in a bomb blast (airplane, mess halls – they are getting better at it) and the nation will again start a process of democracy by picking up pieces.