Adil Najam
The results to our most recent ATP Poll – on the biggest threats facing Pakistan’s future – may be the most surprising results to have come out of any ATP Poll ever.
As in any poll one can quibble about which categories should or should not have been chosen. If, as some have suggested, we combine the category on “corruption and bad governance” (150 votes, 21%) with the category on “incompetent political leaders” (143 votes, 20%) then our own politicians, bureaucracy and establishment becomes the biggest threat (combined 293 votes, 41%). But even with that so, nearly as many people voted for what is now the top answer – religious extremism and violence is the biggest threat to Pakistan (286 votes, 40%). There is, indeed, a strong recognition of the internal wars being fought in and against Pakistan today!
Although 711 is a decent sized sample, this is a blog poll and should not be taken any more seriously than that because the sample is self-selected and non-scientific.
However, the real surprise here is not what people voted for, but what they did not vote for. For example, despite all the rhetoric and chest-beating one hears, only 40 votes (5%) felt that “USA and the West” are Pakistan’s biggest threat. Even more surprisingly, only 21 votes (3%) felt that India – the supposed arch-nemesis of Pakistan – is the main threat facing Pakistan today. With 19 and 18 votes (3% each) the categories of “Economic and resource challenges” including poverty and “Ethnic and Provincial fault-lines” make up the bottom.
So, what is happening here. Why did “India” or “The West” not get more votes even though the discourse most often talks about them? What does it say that the largest threats identified – more than 80 percent of the total vote – is in three categories that are all internally driven? Have new threats increased in size, or have old ones receded in impact? Thoughts, dear readers?
Just to clarify, I did not at all mean that the results are misleading; I merely pointed out that, as is the case in ANY web poll, any meanings are highly suspect.
There is no doubt in my mind that all Pakistanis are vehemently against the violence that has gripped our country during the past few years; however, I think the main problem is that there is a huge trust deficit between the people and Pakistan’s institutions.
A relevant observation on Pakistani opinions from Professor Juan Cole’s blog “Informed Comment”:
http://www.juancole.com/
posted by Juan Cole @ 3/28/2009 12:02:00 AM
In a recent poll, Muslim publics, including that in Pakistan, overwhelmingly rejected US military presence in Muslim countries. A year ago, an opinion poll of Pakistanis found that “most Pakistanis do not believe that Pakistan-U.S. security cooperation has benefited Pakistan, and a majority (84 percent) sees the U.S. military presence in Asia as a greater threat to Pakistan than Al Qaeda and the Taliban (60 percent). Two-thirds of the Pakistanis polled do not trust the United States to
I think the results are actually quite right. Everyone in Pakistan now sees the Taliban as the biggest enemy. Whether it is the USA who is supporting them or whether US policy ends up helping them the fact is that it is the Taliban types who are actually killing Muslims and Pakistanis.
By the way, I also do not want to give the Taliban sympathizers here the benefit of questioning the sample. A sample of 711 respondents, no matter what, on a website that has such a wide readership from in Pakistan and outside has to be taken seriously. The Taliban sympathizers will of course want to question the sentiment but the fact to the matter is that the average Pakistani HAS IN FACT BECOME TIRED OF THE TALIBAN and has begun recognizing them as the greatest threat to Pakistan.
I think Eidee Man, Pure Indian and others are missing the point and maybe Adil Najam should not be too defensive.
No poll is ever representative and this one is not that unrepresentative. From the comments here this is no den of liberals. It has a full cross-section of opinion and the views reflected here ARE REPRESENTATIVE.
I think the real thing is the choices given. We all like bad mouthing USA, I do too, and I think they are the case of a lot of bad things happening in Pakistan. But when someone forces me to say what is the ONE single most important threat then the answer has to be the extremists and terrorists.
The good thing about this poll was that it forced us to choose just one factor. I bet if people had to give three top things then then results would be different. The genius of this poll was that it was crafted for people to prioritize.