Adil Najam
I was in Chicago all weekend for Human Development Foundation (HDF) of North America’s Convention celebrating the HDF’s 10 years of service. It was an intellectually stimulating event with a host of thoughtful presentations various issues related to Pakistan’s development coming from Dr. Tariq Banuri, Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Dr. Sania Nishtar, Arshed Bhatti (’Civil Junction’ Cafe), Zobaida Jalal (Minister of Social Welfare), Ahmed Bilal Mehboob (PILDAT), Khalid Mirza (former SEC Chairman), Nasir Ali Shah Bukhari (KASB), Dr. Nadeem ul Haque (PIDE), Beena Sarwar, Munizae Jehangir (NDTV), Ethan Casey (PakCast), Syed Talat Hussain (Aaj TV), and others. The event also featured the music of Josh, Munni Begum and Jawad and the poetry of Ahmed Faraz.
As interesting as the formal presentations were the many many side conversations amongst the participants. The current political situation in Pakistan, including Elections 2007, were a hot topic. I learnt much in talking on this to people like Syed Talat Hussain from Aaj TV, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob of PILDAT who had been instrumental in getting the ‘open letter’ to Gen. Musharraf written, and also with Ahmed Faraz. On the elections question the common response was that ‘anything could happen’ and it is no longer clear what is most likely to happen, or even if elections would be held.
I was reminded of my conversation with Imran Khan last year where he had said that the 2007 elections would ‘either be like 1970 or like 1977.’ That may still be true; but it would depend on whether elections happen at all. What do you think? Will they?
[Poll=8]
“But let us admit the reality that Military intervention in politics is WORST than worst democracy.”
It is ok to argue in favour of democracy, but lets avoid such sweeping statements.
While it’s true that most alternatives to Musharraf (with the possible exception of Imran Khan) are also undesirable, I still think the predictions that the post Musharraf scenario will be a repeat of the 1990s are somewhat misplaced.
The situation is very different from 1988 today. Some of the main differences are
* The role of the private TV channels and the internet
* Devolution (yes, I can hear simplistic shouts against this system, but it’s still an important change)
* The freedom of information ordinance (shouldn’t have gone so unnoticed)
* The judiciary (unlike previous movements against various governments, this time, the agitation is being lead by lawyers on the independence of the judiciary, which will insha Allah allow the judiciary to be more independent in the future)
* The overall level of political awareness (though still not enough) is unprecedented
These are some very important differences, which should allow citizens some room to assert themselves in demanding better governance and transparency in a democratic set up after Musharraf. A repeat of the 1990s is very much avoidable, provided we make use of these things (which were not available earlier) to assert ourselves.
Does it really matter if we discuss the possibility of elections in 2007, 2008 or whenever under Musharaf? It’ll just be another staged drama. If Musharaf stays, where probably he will, Q league along with some lotas from PPP and may be some from other parties will have a landslide victory. Musharaf will give a few seats to MQM mafia from Punjab and may be a few from other provinces to please terrorist Altaf who has backed him up everywhere. Musharaf definitely will be happy this way as he can serve as the President for another 5 years or so unless he dies in a ‘plane crash’ or some other means.
No doubt Adil,
It was great to participate in HDF Convention with having speakers from diversified professions and issues.
I dont know if elections will be held in 07 as the things are moving so quickly. But 5/12 carnage as well as judicial crises in the country has proved to be catalyst for the political parties to determine their future lines. There was blurred and uncertain situation as the ‘Deal/Dheel’ was the topic of the day. I think NS and Imran are pretty clear to resist against the present setup. Its now time for PPP and MMA to clarify their positions as they both are in power politics.
Another aspect, which I feel we are missing in our discussion here is that the nationalist parties will emerge as a powerful bloc in the next election particularly in NWFP and Baluchistan.
@ Bilal
You are right that we have a vacuum of leadership at this moment of time not because NS and BB are in forced/self exile. People do not want them anymore. But let us admit the reality that Military intervention in politics is WORST than worst democracy. Today we are at square 1986-99 and unfortunately we will have to go through this process again.
Establishment of democracy is just like learning to ride a bicycle. One normally fells initially, does not mean that you stop him from learning.Rather one learns by falling.
Adil bhai I am reading your posts for many months and I found it very informative. My question for every reader in ATP is, do we have really a one single great leader who should we vote? Every body is saying Musharraf should go but then who will come as our new leader? Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto for the 3rd time.Eventhough we know how corrupt they are. MMA (they are still in power in NWFP and doing nothing there). Imran Khan is a good option but he has only one seat right now and the next election he will not have that seat too. Which he knows and thats why he is going crazy now a days.
My view is that whatever leader will be elected in next election Musharraf, Nawaz Sahrif, Benazir Bhutto, and Imran Khan. We will be having same posts then, same movements, and same opposition.
So whats the point of discussion?
First of all I must add that Adil did not mention himself but among all the people at the convention, Adil s presentation was also very very informative and also will hopefully help put a framework to HDFs effort to formulate a path to a movement for positive social change , I think the main idea is that the discourse of discussion in Pakistan , political ,social ethnic and religious truly needs to be changed to Development centric . It should be something like :it is the people stupid .
For Adnan
I learnt much in talking on this to people like Syed Talat Hussain from Aaj TV,
Yes he is really ( in my opinion ) genuinly interested in issues of people and waht came out is what we know, there is nothing hidden .MQM , Genralismo and his cronies need to go. How time will tell.
Elections will happen as there are many power hungry people and ´those goofs around them who believe Pakistan is a democracy. Its a place where election candidates are those who can either generate more funds for their rallies or those who have high connections with political parties with strong vote bank. The average voter is dumb enough to vote based on race, muhajirs vote for mqm, sindhis vote for ppp, and so on. Otherwise, people go with those who are good at public speeches and strong gestures.
By the way, has any independent candidate ever made a mark in politics? Just curious to know.
Adil,
My answer to the poll was that I have no idea whether elections will happen in 2007 because there are too many uncertainties including chances of an emergency imposition.
I do strongly believe that if elections happen in 2007 they will be under Musharraf and they will be far worse than 1977. Musharraf cannot face free and fair elections without his house of cards completely collapsing around him. Even though there was clear rigging in the 1977 elections which precipitated a political crisis, Z.A Bhutto still had a strong constituency and had retained significant support amongst sections of the population. Musharraf is now opposed by everyone on the right and left, has no constituency beyond the army and his governmental cronies in Punjab are counting on being “engineered” back into government. Pakistan is going to lurch from one crisis to the next until Musharraf’s departure (which will have to brought about by the Army) after which we stare into another dark abyss with no idea of how the next transition will take place. This is the unfortunate logic of one man rule and a sytem built to keep one man in power; complete uncertainty for a country of 160 million people 60 years after independence. It is truly sad to see where the Pakistani establishment (led by the military but supported by bureaucrats, politicians, waderas and mullahs) has brought the country.