Adil Najam
In introducing our last ATP Poll, I had suggested that the most important political questions demanding analysis relate to how Pakistan politics will shape up because of the events of the last year, but particularly in light of Gen. Musharraf getting himself elected as President again.
The responses from our readers suggests that there is great uncertainty about exactly what will transpire, but significant consensus that the instability is most likely to continue.
We had posed two questions this time.
Q1. Assuming that Gen. Musharraf will get himself elected as President, what do you think is most likely to happen next?
Q2. One year from today, what do you think would be the level of Gen. Musharraf’s political power?
Some of the interesting findings that emerge from the first question are (435 responses):
1. There is a very small minority of our readers (3%) who believe that Gen. Musharraf’s election will not stand. They seem to suggest that the Supreme Court decision still pending will somehow invalidate the results of October 6. The real thing to note here is just how few of our readers actually believe that the Supreme Court will act thus.
2. There is a more significant minority (as many as 11%) who do see an optimistic future and believe that ‘a government of national unity will be formed and things will calm down.’ Although this is not a large proportion of respondents, it is nonetheless a significant proportion.
3. There is another significant minority (16%) who feel that Gen. Musharraf wil, once again, refuse to drop his uniform. That once elected, he will again go back on his promise. Here, again, the thing to note is that while not a majority, this is not an insignificant proportion.
4. Finaly, and importantly, the vast bulk of respondents see continuing instability in the affairs of the state one way or the other (70%). Of this group, the single most popular response was that ‘political turmoil will continue in Parliament with odd and unstable coalitions’ (28%). The second common response in this cluster was that ‘political unrest will increase and spill to street protests and the Supreme Court’ (22%). Third, there are 19% of our readers who feel that instability will continue because without his uniform, gen. Musharraf will be sidelined by politicians and the new military leadership. Although there are nuanced differences between these three responses, the common element is that each suggests a continued and prolonged period of instability.
The findings from the second question are even more clear (432 responses):
1. Just over half the respondents (51%) believe that in a year from now Gen. Musharraf will still be President but he will have much less power and influence. One assumes that they feel so because of the of the confluence of the points highlighted in bullet 4 above.
2. Interestingly, as many as a third of our readers (33%) believe that in a year from now Gen. Musharraf will no longer be President and will not be in power in any other capacity. This is a surprisingly large number and, once again, suggest a coming era of greater instability.
3. There are, however, a significant number of respondents (15%) who feel that in a year from now Gen. Musharraf would have further consolidated his hold on power further; that he will be more powerful than he is today. This probably includes many of those who hold an optimistic view of politics to come, but obviously also include some who see this as a dangerous proposition.
All in all, then, hold on to your seats. The roller coaster will continue and we are in for some interesting politics and, maybe, dangerous upheavals. Let us know what you make of these responses. Of course, any web poll is just that - a web poll, that reflects the opinions and biases of those who visit this poll. Extrapolating too much from these numbers can be dangerous. However, it does seem that the basic prediction of continued and enhanced instability is a fair one. Having said that, how would your analysis of these numbers be different, and why?
P.S. I have been accused, probably rightly, of being too depressed by the mockery that has recently been made of all democratic ideals by all concerned. I have already pleaded guilty to this charge. These are depressing times for anyone who still believes in democracy. And I do.
As I have stated before, I believe that Pakistan is a democratic society trapped in an undemocratic state. Despite my my disgust at recent machinations, I do believe that ultimately the will of the Pakistani people will triumph. If I did not believe that I would not believe in democracy. But let me not dwell much on this point. I have made it in umpteen posts here at ATP and also made it recently during a detailed radio discussion on National Public Radio’s (US) popular news analysis program, On Point, where I was a guest this Monday (listen to show here; I have been a guest on the show multiple times, including on the Lal Masjid affair).
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This is what even ‘The Economist’ said…..
”Farce in Islamabad”
”….Perhaps a proper election can still be salvaged from this mess. If not, the loser will be democracy, and the winner not stability but Islamist extremism.”
Benazir, on her arrival must be arrested, tried , judged
and examplarily punished severly before public, she
should be humiliated as she and her Hubbi did to entire
nation of Pakistan, it is indeed a test of basic
law and order and JUSTICE !! ( NOT MADE IN USA ).
The worst kind of colonial “Democracy” Raj style is going
to be forced in Pakistan, this will be a culturel genocide of
the nation through “forced” change called STALINISM.
Although I don’t live in Pakistan but thanks to all this advancement in technology I do have a clear idea of how things are shaping up over there and have some understanding of the ebb and flow of public opinion. These grades are utterly amazing, perhaps a true depiction of how Musharraf has performed over the last few years. Notwithstanding the fact that it’s hard to talk in terms of exact figures in social sciences, in all fairness, it is not difficult to judge Musharraf’s doings and undoings. For all I know Musharraf ain’t no miracle worker! He’s no Jinnah, or Gandhi or Mandela - he’s just an ordinary dictator, powered with his lust for riches; perhaps, no better than Mahmud Ghaznavi or Mohammad Ghori. Now, the question is: does the rest of Pakistan think on the same lines as this blog poll? Well, I apologize for being a diehard pessimist, folks, but I would say that the rest of Pakistan is so fed up with Mushy’s rule of no law that the results could be horribly and agonizingly to our general who refuses to turn into a civilian.
We are already seeing the shape of things and mush is telling BB not to come, also the COurts are also playing right into Mush hand by saying that the NRO is wrong…. so, the courts will stop BB’s return and the Chaudhrys will sit and laugh at the whole engineered thing and stay in power. Wah Wah.
Interesting results I think they reflect true state of confusion in country
Daktar, thanks for the appreciation. Your concerns are absolutely valid. As far as doffing the uniform is concerned, I don’t see Musharraf doing that that easily. I see him going through a traumatic period of indecisiveness. In other words, he’s miserable! Plus, with the Supreme Court hearing starting on October 17, Musharraf’s options might undergo a drastic change, transitioning from, as they say, ‘impossible is nothing’ to ‘an impossible adventure’.
On the other hand, if the status quo is maintained and he becomes a civilian, the new military leadership will certainly device, as you rightly pointed out, it’s own parameters. An ex-boss is as good as a used up piece of sponge! And, by the way, don’t you think that the same thoughts are going through his mind as well?! The guy is in a mess!
If I was his advisor, I would honestly tell him to just give up now, perhaps write a book, get on a lecturing tour to the United States, see if there is an opening for him in RAND or Brookings or Carnegie and live his life comfortably. Right now if bows out, he’s worth in gold for the academic world – he can contribute enormously to the think tanks and policy-making institutes of the West because of his involvement in the war against terrorism. Or, may be, the UN can provide him with some opportunity. However, he must act now or tomorrow will be too late.
Ahson, that is a very insightful analysis. A post in itself really. Thanks. My only contention will be that if Gen. Musharraf does give up his uniform then you will see new military leadership start asserting itself and Musharraf will become less and less important. Loyalty or no loyalty, power speaks its own language. WHich is why the real question is to see whether he drops the uniform and how long before new military leadership start treating him not as their former commander but as just one more politician.
Here’s what’s not going to change that much:
Economic deprivation of the masses: The country will continue to be harshly divided and segregated into haves and have nots. One frequently comes across ‘impressive’ figures with respect to improvement and economic uplift of middle class by virtue of the fact that banking and telecommunication industries have made great strides in the past few years.
However, the question remains as to how all this so-called advancement has affected the man on the street as well as those in the sub-urban, underdeveloped areas where even the basic amenities of life are missing in action. Are jobs available for all and sundry without ‘sifarish’ or do I need have someone’s ‘parchi’ to get into the system of these up and coming industries? Has this prosperity touched the lives of those in villages or are they still subservient to the wadera/feudal culture?
All this is intrinsically associated with age old/stale ethos and practices that are unchangeable, thanks to the inability or the non-commitment of those sitting in the cool confines of Islamabad. Unless these good for nothing party animals feel the urge to change the mechanism, nothing will ever change. The irony is that if change is made for the better, the powers that be fear that they will lose grip over the minds and bodies of the deprived class of individuals. I guess, given the economic instability, the have nots do not even care whether its Musharraf or any John Doe in office.
Terrorism: Religious fanaticism that has changed that very texture of the Pakistani society will continue to be on the rise. Suicide bombings, militants taking hostages, the Pakistan forces trying to battle it out with the fundamentalists, so on, will carry on relentlessly. Unless the hideouts of the militants are targeted in right earnest and not just to put up a theatrical display of sorts. One does not doubt the integrity of GOP as far as bona fides of these operations is concerned, but there certainly is a problem when it comes taking action amongst those in the military higher command.
Foreign Policy: Closely connected to the issue of terrorism is that of foreign policy. Pakistan’s foreign policy in the post 9/11 era has been guided/dictated by how Islamabad cooperates in the war against terrorism with the US. Relations with India are another ‘subject of discussion’ but it appears that most of the diplomatic resources have been diverted toward dealing with the Western governments.
Things for India, on the other hand, are looking up and with the country shaping up to be an economic giant, Pakistan can really benefit from the neighbor’s progress. However, in order for that to happen, it is nothing but necessary that Islamabad should strategize its priorities with New Delhi and ensure that there are no hiccups on the way. ISI, for one, should be restrained from day dreaming about making inroads into Kashmir or inciting insurgency within the Indian territory.
Further, as far as the US centric foreign policy is concerned, it’ll be interesting to see how the change of guard in the White House will influence events in Pakistan. Already the Democrat Party dominated Congress is questioning the rationale of several ‘incentives’ that the earlier Congress had bestowed upon Islamabad and its corrupt generals.
Now, to what will change?
Mobocracy: Musharraf and his chamchas will make a big fuss about ‘introducing’ ‘democracy in the country in the coming several weeks. He will probably doff the uniform but that really remains to be seen. There is a lot going on around and there are too many players trying to play various roles. Musharraf has already hinted that Benazir should delay her arrival that actually sounds like the general is not yet ready to give up any time soon! With Nawaz Sharif already kicked out, Musharraf’s tactics of playing hide and seek with the major political forces, his effort to alienate any chances of cultivating a new leadership will only create a greater vacuum within the dynamics of system. The public is already showing signs of frustration; there is a potential danger of this disgust with the regime turning into a monstrous anarchy that could eventually threaten national solidarity. Musharraf needs to get rid of his insecurities and either exit honorably or face the music like a real general that can result in a somewhat sketchy way!
New wine in old bottles: If Musharraf does honor his commitment and if the Supreme Court does not rock the boat in the next few days/weeks, we might end up having general elections. It is likely that Benazir’s group of People’s Party might be provided with an opportunity to head the government. Prima facie, it won’t make much of a difference in the lives of the Pakistanis but we might see a change of face in the PM House.
Musharraf’s future: Not sure where Musharraf will end up. He’s rampantly taken steps that have backfired in the recent past and have plunged his popularity graph to new lows. Pakistan’s history is replete with instances when their ‘inferiors’ have overpowered sitting dictators. One does feel that such an eventuality is not an impossibility in Musharraf’s case.
Another probability could be Musharraf bowing our quietly if mobocracy sets in and handing over power to a body of individuals consisting of scholars, technocrats and those genuinely interested in turning the fortunes of the people and the country.
Judicial activism: Revolution or no revolution on the roads, the judges in the apex court seem to be hell bent upon making history happen! The men in black robes certainly know what they are up against and they are cognizant of their targets as well. Judicial activism is here to stay!
Media’s assertiveness: A revolution has set in with respect to the media. Media is not as restricted and as confined as it was, say, around 10 years back. A huge amount of diversity has been introduced and the number of TV channels is mind-boggling! Despite consistent efforts, Musharraf and his mercenaries have tried their level best to curb the independent tendencies of the media but haven’t been successful. The media has a ‘nuisance value’. The possible gains of the government have turned into losses by the ever-vigilant media recently. Pakistan has been all of a sudden transformed into a ‘talking/discussing nation’!
Long story short folks look out for the ups and downs, twists and turns in the fortunes of dear old Pakistan!