Adil Najam
Our ATP Poll on ‘What events from 2008 will define Pakistan in 2009?’ continues. However, as promised, we bring you a second companion ATP Poll which asks a related but different question: What do you think might be the big news coming out of Pakistan in 2009? (You can mark multiple choices).
If you have not voted on our original Year in Review Poll yet, please do vote here.
This is a blog poll - and its should be taken no more seriously than that. Our purpose is to facilitate discussion and reflection; there is very little about it that is scientific. We have come up with a list of 15 possible news stories that could become big in 2009. Some of these, if they were to transpire, would be desirable developments; some clearly not. These may not be the most ‘likely’ stories of 2009. They are merely our list of some interesting possibilities in multiple domains. The list is, by definition, subjective. One hopes it is also reflective and will lead to reflection by our readers. We have no doubt that there will be other stories that could and will become big in 2009. Fell welcome to discuss those in the comments section.
Our ATP Poll list of 15, in no particular order, includes the following:
- Stock markets in Pakistan, as measured by the Karachi Stock Exchange Index (KSE), have been in a deep and unending slump. Could the Pakistan stock markets make a big rebound in 2009 back to the dizzying heights it reached in early 2008?
- The names of a number of Pakistanis have been mentioned in recent years for the Nobel Peace Prize (including Abdul Sattar Edhi, Aitizaz Ahsan, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Asma Jehangir). Might a Pakistani Civil Society leader will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009?
- There is a virtual civil war going on in and around Swat in Pakistan’s Norther regions where the so-called ‘Taliban’ insurgents have taken over Pakistani territory and are killing Pakistani citizens and solders. Will the Pakistani forces succeed in suppressing this insurgency in 2009?
- Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been remarkably quiet since he resigned as President. The rumor-mill in Islamabad suggests that he may contemplate a return to Pakistani politics. Could this happen?
- The tension between the ruling PPP and tthe PML(N) government in the Punjab continues to make headlines. Could the PMN(N) government in the Punjab fall in 2009?
- The MQM-PPP coalition in Sindh seems to make die-hard supporters of both parties uncomfortable. Would this arrangement collapse in 2009 and, if so, with what repercussions?
- Could this be the year when a major new political party with mass support will emerge in Pakistan, possibly out of the recent civil society uprisings and media awareness?
- Talk of another martial law (or equivalent) waiting around the corner is forever current in Pakistan. Could this happen in 2009?
- Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP government at the Center seems very strong right now, with or without the coalition with PML(N). Will it remain strong in 2009, or could the government fall?
- Right now there is much (too much) talk of escalating military and political tensions between India and Pakistan. Could this turn into an all-out war between India and Pakistan in 2009?
- The continuing drone attacks by the US on Pakistani territory remain a major sore point between the two countries and a source of angst amongst ordinary Pakistanis. With a new US President ready to take office, might 2009 see an end of US drone attacks on Pakistani territory?
- The scandal concerning Justice Dogar’s daughter continues to make waves. Will Justice Dogar be able to continue as Chief Justice through 2009?
- The Justice Movement built around Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry continues, even if with less steam. Could 2009 see Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry reinstated (again)?
- Pakistan cricket has been in the doldrums for way too long now. Could 2009 be the year of the comeback for Pakistan cricket?
- The energy crisis has been deepening in Pakistan. But so has the realization that something has to be done about it. Could 2009 be the year that sees the end of load-shedding in Pakistan?
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“ISLAMABAD: In a major decision, President Asif Ali Zardari gave the go-ahead on Saturday to allow amendments in the NAB Ordinance aimed at exempting parliamentarians and politicians from accountability through the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and giving the right of holding them accountable to parliament.”
For the full story, check
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id =19377
Nice post.
Bhai Sahab,
Dogar Sahab’s term ends this March. So what prophecy.
For rest, specially seeing the response of a biased sample of readers of this blog, Sheikh Rasheed’s saying sums it all “khawahishon ku khabar banana”.
End of load-shedding in Pakistan:)
None of the above! I did vote for only one option: ‘All out war against India’ but that, too, not with enough conviction.
As @Riaz ul Haq says below, the new Obama presidency will be a major factor in Pakistan’s internal dynamics. If the ‘moderate’ Talibans are accomodated in Kabul and Islamabad then the threat of terrorism against Pakistan goes down a few notches and which, in turn, will only help Pakistan’s economy. Similarly, if Obama manages to bring India and Pakistan to some agreement on Kashmir at least on interim basis then even better for this region. If not then, I am afraid, ’surgical strikes’ by India will trigger an all out war.
Related to what I say above, I’d like to posit a question: Has there ever been an extended period like today’s in Pakistan’s 60+ year old history where Pakistani economy and internal security been subjected to so many foreign forces’ influence in Pakistan? I can’t think of any other period like today’s. While the anti-Soviet Jihad of the 80s lasted a decade Pakistan was well protected by Western military and economic help/guarantees and so Pakistani economy at least stayed afloat. No such help anymore.
Pakistan and Pakistanis are likely to continue to suffer until they settle or at least put into backburner the issue of Kashmir. Pakistanis also need to define the extent of religion in their body politic.
PS. I see a bunch of people who have voted for the military coup, whether wishing for it or not. If that were to happen, which flavor of Muslim League is going to be co-opted this time by the Generals? You know, even Zia ul Haq had to have some politicians as the civilian face of his rule.
In the absence of any visionary and pro-active political leadership in the nation, Pakistan will continue to be heavily influence by external factors and events. The change in Washington and potential change in Delhi in 2009 will likely have a far greater impact on Pakistan than anything Pakistani leaders say or do.
I am hopeful that people of Pakistan, especially the entrepreneurial and the professional classes, will continue to do their best to help extend the positive legacies of Musharraf-Aziz years. Without going into the specific accomplishments in Pakistan during Musharraf-Aziz regime, I believe it can be safely said that the communications revolution (accompanied by dramatic growth in vociferous electronic and new media) as well as a significant enlargement of the middle class in Pakistan helped sow the seeds of the end of arbitrary actions by President Musharraf. In other words, Musharraf pulled a Gorbachev ( a la perestroika that unleashed uncontrolled energies) by enabling powerful resistance to arbitrary rule. Some of these changes are durable and I hope will make our rulers more accountable. There will still be abuse of power but the sunlight will shine brightly on it to the detriment of the abusers. Eventually there will be real participatory democracy to serve the common Pakistani with appropriate checks and balance imposed by a much larger and more powerful and aware middle class essential for true democratic governance in Pakistan.
Another Elections :D