Adil Najam
Our second blog poll seems to have thrown up some interesting, but also confusing, results.
Depending on how you cut the pie, you can make the argument that:
(a) a clear majority of ATP readers want Gen. Musharraf to give up both or one of his twin offices (Army Chief and President) before the 2007 elections,
and at the same time
(b) a clear (but differently configured) majority wants him to play some role – although a more constrained role – in Pakistan’s politics.
(Click image for larger picture)
A total of 114 ATP visitors cast their votes in the poll which was launched very early on Friday and closed very late on Monday. While this is obviously NOT a scientific survey, the results are rather intriguing, even if not representative.
The ATP Poll gave readers five options in response to the question:
The option that got the most votes (41 votes; 36%) calls on Gen. Musharraf to retire at the end of 2006 and fully hand over both offices to his successors. While this was not an absolute majority, it is well over a third of all the votes cast in the poll. By comparison, only 19 of the 114 respondents (16.7%) preferred the option of Gen. Musharraf continuing in both offices simultaneously.
Just over a quarter of the ATP respondents (30 votes; 26.3%) want Gen. Musharraf to continue in only one of the two offices. There seems relatively little enthusiasm for passing the decision on whetehr he shoudl keep both offices or not to the next Assembly (15 votes, 13.2%) or of holding a national referendum (9 votes, 7.9%).
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. However, the results are interesting nonetheless; at least to the extent that they say something about the cohort that is likely to visit a blog such as ATP and vote in such a poll (i.e., educated, mobile, technically savvy, and globally connected Pakistanis).
While one must caution against over-analyzing these results, at least three points are worth noting; if only to nudge a discussion:
- Given that the technocratic classes tend to support (and be highly represented in) military governments in Pakistan including this one, it is noteworthy that ATP’s (technocratic?) readership chose the ‘retirement option’ (36%) for Gen. Musharraf as often as it did.
- There seems to be a sense that Gen. Musharraf should NOT continue with twin-offices into the future. Only one-sixth of the respondents (16.7%) chose this option. While those who opted for a referendum option or having the next Assembly decide (total 21.2%) may be seen as sitting on the fence on this question, those calling for his retiring from at least one office (and possibly both) were in a clear majority (total 62.3%).
- Not withstanding the above, and in fairness, it should also be noted that a majority of the respondents do, in fact, see (want?) some continued role for Gen. Musharraf — if not in both offices, then in at least one. This finding does not contradict the earlier finding; it only adds nuance (and possibly confusion).
So, where does all of this leave us? Maybe I was onto something when I had responded to a questioner in Washington DC by suggesting that public opinion amongst Pakistanis remains divided and uncertain on the future of Gen. Musharraf.
Maybe what these numbers suggest is that those responding to our poll see a continued role for Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan politics; but they would like to see him having less of a role than he has had in the past (also see earlier ATP post on democracy in Pakistan).
What do you think?
We must first reach one understanding amongst.
Do you stand The President responsible for every evil in Pakistan before he took office?
Because he is from thev military explains that the military gets a proportionate responsibility to control the law and order when politicicians potray crime and especially as it grows.many of dont realise why was the drug menace exposed to modren society although most westerners walked into indopak with hippie culture and took interest of youth but again that youth was to get superceeded by another generation too. the drugs are today a worldwide war and the crescendo turkey iran pakistan afganistan are being victimised by a society whose social representation babyboomed its children by the 58 revolution of money pillaring and yuppie children in uk and usa .I just saw a culinary cook living in the mediteranean on a yatch with his former hippei mother…..
life is different when civies want rule it is there !but when they want protege rule and police to give rthem muscle the military institution hhas to finally move in with competitive strength for accountability…
although The President is failing in most of his objectives and they are miraclously supporting Pakistan too ,and primarily because the new planet is being built on Pakistani thought and conceptualisation of Social Statesmanship..
Its not the Military that has to undo foolish debates about Women and secularism that again a full population from west has been hired to bugle in muslim countries . The Militarty Generals have hardly passed FA’s while affairs are being handled by Political or International references.
I try to explain but The President has included every Pakistani already into his power cloak and as much as one can work. There is nobody except those who failed and had bargained solace outside with foriegn governments with whom they traded pakistans soveriegnity and privacy. with whom the created dams out of small dark lane charas opium outlets and spread the menace for creating a regime in UNO! Think! otherwise by the mid 70s the UNO was completely busy !
Adil, please do not be disheartened.
I think you are riht, we as a nation need anger management therapy.
But it is also that this event has so moved everyone on every side of the debate that he worst tendies and strongest passions are bound to come out.
This catharsis may not be a bad thing. It cleans teh body and the soul.
Sometimes things get so bad that only some terrible can jolt people’s consciousness.
Lets hope that after the knee-jerk reactions end people will start taking your advice and start thinking about the state we are in rather than just shouting.
[…] Pakistan has seen many elections in its checkered history and almost all were labeled rigged, unfair or engineered by one political party or another. For the upcoming elections, the opposition has already started voicing its fears of manipulation by the government, while the latter promises to conduct free and fair elections. […]
I have to say that all those that support Musharaf, are not living in reality. You have to realize that Mir Sheikhula Rehman, the owner of Jung group of newspapers and Geo, has controlled the country’s news for the past 50 years. Mian Mansha has controlled the countries banking for the past 50 years as well, and thus the economy (for those of you who do not know, banking is biggest and must influencial industry in the world, far bigger than oil and natural resources). All of Pakistan’s bussinesses are owned by foreign multinationals, all our money leaks out of the country. The news is pro western and pro Musharraf, and thats why people like Rabi are that way. IMF and world bank rule the government, that is the reason the literacy rate is down, becaus Nike wants cheap kids working in cotton plants to make cheap t shirts, and the owners of those industries are happy with the set up. where are the pakistani bussinesses. WHy isn’t our cricket team sponsored by amrat cola instead of Pepsi.
Yes the Mullahs are extremists, but who can know that for sure; where do you get your news from?
I liked the comment about land reform, and understanding Islam’s true meaning about morality.
Basically we are still being rulled by the West through all the nawabs that kissed up to the Britishers; the poor are getting poorer and the rich richer.
To quote Faiz Ahmad Faiz, I pray one day that day comes, “wo din jiska wada hai, Jab zulm-o-sitam k kooh-e-giran
Roi ki tarah ur jaenge
Pakistan needs a grass roots revoluttion, and bring equality to the country, which may or may not be democracy.
My humble opinion about the 2007 Elections is simple.
He has promised people of Pakistan that he will not commit mistakes which the past leaders commit and i believe this, so he should leave his Uniform or President’s seat and make sure that these elections are fair and please don’t repeat 2002 Elections and also not like Local Govt.Elections. I hope President Musharaf has the ability to do that so i am optimistic about the future elections. My plea to President Musharaf is that Please don’t become dictator like General Zia-Ul-Haq.