Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
Lahori, as much as I disagree with what Musharraf has done with the CJ, between NS, him and BB he gets my vote hands down as a civilian candidate.
Wasim, why so emotional? who is hanging her? I am just saying let’s have her do something that’s worth us spending 10 minutes of our time even talking about her. So far, she’s done nothing.
If having a good heart and “dard-e-awaam” is all that’s required for someone to enter politics, then why don’t you contest the next elections, I’ll vote for you. Why Fatima?
We need to get away from this jiyalapana and cult of personalities. Notice how you’ve talked about supporting her because she’s a good person and not because of her family, and then you’ve signed off with “jiyay bhutto”. :-) Pretty transparent, no?
It may surprise you to learn that I have been sympathetic to the Bhuttos in the yesteryears, myself. However, I think they are part of the past, not part of the future. Let’s rid ourselves of these ghosts of a very tragic and painful past. Whether it is Zia’s progeny, the Chaudhry’s progeny, NS’s aulaad or the Bhutto’s.
Saada picha chado, tey Dubai ich moja’n karo. Maghro’n lao, as they say…
Dear Friends Bari & Social Mistri
Sorry for delay in not responding. I agree we should not back the ‘khandaans’ and my support of Fatima Bhutto is nothing to do with her surname. I believe she has a genuine care for the people of Pakistan and her articles and work to date as a journalist is of some note given she is only 24 years old.
The sad thing is that Fatima’s last name or her ‘ khandaan’ holds her back because individuals like yourself will dismiss her regardless for her lineage which represents an accident of birth only. I am happy to debate her personal failures but I believe its unfair to hang her simply because she is another female Bhutto.
Jiyo Bhutto (Shaheed Bhutto & Fatima)
Feimanallah
Wasim
I do not think Bibi will make a compromise at this time. It will be politcally damaging to her. Why make a deal with a lame duck dictator who has lost all the credibility?
uh, as if it’s in bibi and baba ji[dictator]’s hand to decide who remains in power?
Keep the famous “war on terror” in mind in which Bush chose Mush to play a vital role to propagate his agenda in Pakistan which he coudn’t fulfill despite of D.Chennay’s very latest confession that Mush put his life in danger to deal with American Intrest, I don’t think so US would make a silly mistake to install yet another secular/liberal puppet in the region. It’s proved that liberalism couldn’t give the desired results despite of using both force and media preaching. Maybe Bush regretting that he trust on Musharraf and believed his macho man style after his “heroic” performance in Kargil.
Keeping in mind recent statements emerged from West about failure of War on terror plan, I think US would try to bring some Zia type person infront who could get in synch with people near Afghan border and used to understand the mindset of Taliban and Pakistani tribes near Afghanistan. They have learnt that Danda wouldn’t be giving them any thing at all, specially when ppl like Ms.Nancy and Mr.Gates are the biggest obstacles in their war plan.
Benazir, Nawaz, Benazir, Nawaz. Same looters and “security risks” again and again. First the hardened fools a.k.a. the voters elect them (supposedly) for 5 years and then spend the rest of time, under the same leadership that they had voted for, complaining how bad the corruption is or how much mehengayee has increased.
Reminds me of the famous urdu saying. “Aazmaye hoey ko jo aazmaye us say Khuda bhe sharmaye”. But if thats what the people want then God is not going to change their condition either, and the visa applicants lines in front of the western countries’ embassies are only gonna increase, and so are the bank balances of the newly “elected” leaders and, if history is a lesson, their family members also.
My ideal set up. (I know its just a wishful thinking).
President
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Abdu Sittar Edhi
Prime Minister
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Ansar Burni.
Or maybe Imran Khan (after taking a ghusal-a-sehat to purify himself from the influences of the munafiq mullahs of MMA) can be replaced with one of them.