Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
Deal Majboori hey By Jawed Ch.
tinyurl.com/yt44sz
As I have pointed it out on March 15, It’s time for a regime change in Pakistan
But it appears that Benazir is going to save the presidency of Musharraf through an unwritten understanding of helping her get back in power. She denies it but she has never been honest or trust worthy and she would do anything just to get in and stay in power, just as she was responsible for firing at a demonstration in which her mother was taking part to promote Benazir brother’s political position and it was during her misrule that her brother was assassinated of which she did not even hold a fair enquiry thus strengthening her implicit and illicit approval if not outright planning of the despicable murder, most definitely in the knowledge of her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, if not his doing, and he was let out of the prison by Musharraf *courts in Pakistan being manipulated by the rulers* as a first significant gesture to Benazir for setting up the ground for future political understanding! So once again, it appears that the people of Pakistan would suffer through the machinations of dictators and politicians. If Benazir was sincere she would join PML (N) and MMA and the protesting lawyers in a country wide mass movement to oust the dictator and then maybe even the MQM would also join it and the bandwagon effect would also possibly bring the PML (Q) turncoats around! BUT SHE IS UNSURE OF HER POLITICAL POPULARITY AND WOULD PREFER THE BACK DOOR THROUGH SOME SUBTLE ELECTION RIGGING IN HER FAVOR IN EXCHANGE FOR MAKING MUSHARRAF PRESIDENT THROUGH THE PARLIAMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS! WHAT A SHAME! And, Musharraf’s playing with the cases in the courts against her and against Zardari is for political maneuvering and if she is really corrupt as was alleged by the President of Pakistan, Leghari from her political party who dismissed her government on these charges among others, including that of political incompetence, she should first be cleared by the courts without their being influenced one way or the other by the despot! The autocrat should not be allowed to continue and the only good he can do for the country is to speed up and have the pending cases against all politicians tried honestly, and if still possible hold free and impartial elections and get out!!!
In my opinion, return of the Bhutto family is not good for Pakistan, Bhutto and her husband has raped Pakistan for several years and they must not be allowed to rule Pakistan again.
As someone said here, we want Pakistanis who care about Pakistan in power.
I am resigned to the return of Benazir. However, it is not necessarily as bad as we all have come to believe. She has a natural constituency, is widely popular, and would at least ameliorate the mullah’s grip on present affairs.
However, in that sense, it is not longer 1988. The religious backlash will be worse and more fierce. It will definitely not be a more stable period.