Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
I personally would have preferred Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif and other opposition parties had joined hands in a movement which is gathering momentum after suspension of an independent minded Chief Justice of Pakistan.
I would like to wait until Ms Benazir Bhutto issues a statement giving details about this ‘deal’ which is talk of the day.
I would like to post two news items from geo tv which are self explanatory.
Nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” says Durrani
KABIRWALA: Minister for Information and Broadcasting Senator Muhammad Ali Durrani Thursday dismissed rumours of a deal with apolitical party and said that the plunderers of the national wealth had no future in Pakistani politics.
“The looters and plunderers of the national exchequer have no future in Pakistani political arena as they not only plundered the wealth which belonged to the people of Pakistan but also took it abroad,” he said in an address at a reception hosted in his honour by President Kabirwala Bar Association Rao Sultan Ahmed Khan.
The Minister said nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal.”
“The deal rumours are aimed at protecting the plundered national wealth which has been stashed in foreign banks. The masses would decide the fate of looters and plunderers of the national wealth in the next general elections.
“They (masses) would politically reject looters of national wealthin such a manner that nobody would ever dare plunder the national resources,” he said.
Punjab Minister for Food Syed Hussain Jahania Gardezi, Tehsil Nazim Akbar Hayat Heraj, General Secretary Kabirawala Bar Association Syed Tahir Hussain Gardezi, Rao Ehtasham-ul-Haq advocate, Zaigham Abbas Baliana advocate and a large number of Kabirawala Bar Association members were also present at the reception.
Days of back door deals are over, says Shujaat
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, rejecting the rumors of so called “deal” with People’s Party, on Thursday categorically said the days of back door deals are over.
“I want to set the record straight. There is no deal with the People’s Party and only a certain amount of `Dheel’ [Relaxation] has been given”, Shujaat told a press conference at his residence.
The PML President said only the transfer of an officer does not mean that the cases against BenazirBhutto have been withdrawn, adding, the cases would be pursued.
He said the `Dheel’ given to the PPP was on their own request and is part of the effort to create a conducive political environment for free and fair elections in 2007.
To a question, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain said he was in contact with Makhdum Amin Fahim and that is only for formulating a code of conduct to ensure free and fair elections. He said the PML is getting ready for the elections and hopes that the Peoples Party too will do the same and put their case before the people because they alone will decide who should be ruling the country.
To another question, the PML President, however, added that in politics there can be a deal with any party, but such things may happen only after the election results.
Mussarah may go and Benazir may come back – so what? Our respite lies in withdraw of army from Pakistan for all practical purpose. Else Pakistan is set to go the way it has been going – down in deeper and deeper mess. Sounds pessimistic? Indeed my optimism was gone in the years when Zia-ul-Haq reined and ruined Pakistan.
This rumor/news of Benazir Bhutto’s return is on yahoo top stories right now:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070405/ap_on_re_as/pa kistan_bhutto_return
Benazir can’t possibly offer the US any more than Mushy can. The only factor that’s tying Mushy’s hands is the plummeting morale of Paki Army. They need a civilian face to carry out a rather controversial agenda of liberalizing the society and eliminating taliban etc. Benazir came in handy when MQM militancy became a scourge. She lost a lot of political capital but ended up neutralizing the threat somewhat. The same might happen again. And if people have had enough of BB, Nawaz will be allowed to replace her for a while. Their master, the Paki Army is going nowhere in any scenario, Kinda like Turkey I guess..
Omar, I have not equated the two. Although, now looking at the headline and writeup I can see how it mights seem like that. I refer here to a second set of rumors (less substantiated as I note above) on Gen. Musharraf’s departure; if not from all offices then from the COAS office. Of course, as the post points out, these are and remain rumors; but interesting ones as the meeting of teh military top generals starts.