Adil Najam
I was in Chicago all weekend for Human Development Foundation (HDF) of North America’s Convention celebrating the HDF’s 10 years of service. It was an intellectually stimulating event with a host of thoughtful presentations various issues related to Pakistan’s development coming from Dr. Tariq Banuri, Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Dr. Sania Nishtar, Arshed Bhatti (‘Civil Junction’ Cafe), Zobaida Jalal (Minister of Social Welfare), Ahmed Bilal Mehboob (PILDAT), Khalid Mirza (former SEC Chairman), Nasir Ali Shah Bukhari (KASB), Dr. Nadeem ul Haque (PIDE), Beena Sarwar, Munizae Jehangir (NDTV), Ethan Casey (PakCast), Syed Talat Hussain (Aaj TV), and others. The event also featured the music of Josh, Munni Begum and Jawad and the poetry of Ahmed Faraz.
As interesting as the formal presentations were the many many side conversations amongst the participants. The current political situation in Pakistan, including Elections 2007, were a hot topic. I learnt much in talking on this to people like Syed Talat Hussain from Aaj TV, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob of PILDAT who had been instrumental in getting the ‘open letter’ to Gen. Musharraf written, and also with Ahmed Faraz. On the elections question the common response was that ‘anything could happen’ and it is no longer clear what is most likely to happen, or even if elections would be held.
I was reminded of my conversation with Imran Khan last year where he had said that the 2007 elections would ‘either be like 1970 or like 1977.’ That may still be true; but it would depend on whether elections happen at all. What do you think? Will they?
[Poll=8]
Elections will happen as there are many power hungry people and ´those goofs around them who believe Pakistan is a democracy. Its a place where election candidates are those who can either generate more funds for their rallies or those who have high connections with political parties with strong vote bank. The average voter is dumb enough to vote based on race, muhajirs vote for mqm, sindhis vote for ppp, and so on. Otherwise, people go with those who are good at public speeches and strong gestures.
By the way, has any independent candidate ever made a mark in politics? Just curious to know.
Adil,
My answer to the poll was that I have no idea whether elections will happen in 2007 because there are too many uncertainties including chances of an emergency imposition.
I do strongly believe that if elections happen in 2007 they will be under Musharraf and they will be far worse than 1977. Musharraf cannot face free and fair elections without his house of cards completely collapsing around him. Even though there was clear rigging in the 1977 elections which precipitated a political crisis, Z.A Bhutto still had a strong constituency and had retained significant support amongst sections of the population. Musharraf is now opposed by everyone on the right and left, has no constituency beyond the army and his governmental cronies in Punjab are counting on being “engineered” back into government. Pakistan is going to lurch from one crisis to the next until Musharraf’s departure (which will have to brought about by the Army) after which we stare into another dark abyss with no idea of how the next transition will take place. This is the unfortunate logic of one man rule and a sytem built to keep one man in power; complete uncertainty for a country of 160 million people 60 years after independence. It is truly sad to see where the Pakistani establishment (led by the military but supported by bureaucrats, politicians, waderas and mullahs) has brought the country.
here is my prediction:
elections will be held and will result in change of guard on a relatively minor scale. bb will be back in the system either before or after the election depending on bb’s ability to convince uncle sam to play ball with her.
here is my wish:
army steps in again and throws in jail, the corrupt politicians, the ghuddar lawyers and the bey ghairath journalists. if my wish sounds too much of khayali pulao pakana, check out the latest from bdesh:
http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-05-29-voa24.cf m
Emergency Government in Bangladesh Arrests More Former Officials
More senior political and business leaders have been arrested in Bangladesh, where the military-backed interim government says it is trying to clean up the country’s notoriously corrupt politics before it holds elections.
…It is the second big wave of detentions since the emergency government launched a drive against corruption in politics.
The government has arrested nearly 160 people since it took over in January, after the indefinite postponement of general elections.
…Mahfuz Anam, editor of Dhaka’s Daily Star newspaper, says there is wide support for the crackdown on corruption.
…The interim government has banned all political activity in the meantime.”
its my belief the musharraf would have followed the same course of action that bengali army is following had it not been for u.s. government leaning on mush to hold elections because introducing “democracy in the muslim world” was a part of the american agenda.
intersting also that so much of the world’s attention is focussed on pak while no one seems to give a damn about our former colony despite the fact that bangladeshi government actions are much more against democratic norms than mush’s. i think reason that there is so much foreign interference in pak is because of the beyghairuth nature of our english medium type people – the sort found on this website. even bengalis know better than them
Aesa lagta Pakistan ka naam Pakeezah hai aur woh bazar main beth ker ga rahi hai
Inhi logon ne le lila dupatta mera
Hamri na maano siphiya se poocho
jis ne bajariya main cheena dupatta mera
I think, at the end Musharraf will settle down in USA and mess will continue.
We will have pseudo-democracy for a while like of 1988-1999. In background, Army will continue to run the foreign policy.
Bottom-line – poor men will not see relieve in this circus.
Qismat ka nikle janaza, kafan naseeb ka
Hur saal fail hota hai bachha gareeb ka