Adil Najam
Yesterday, while passing through Chicago airport on my way to Tokyo, Japan, I found myself transfixed by a wall full of posters announcing that Chicago is an “Applicant City” for the 2016 Olympics.
The airport was full of them but, frankly, the posters themselves are not remarkable.
They became remarkable for me 
because of the thoughts they triggered in my mind regarding Pakistan’s upcoming elections. It is, in fact, remarkable that Chicago and the rest of the world is sure that there will be Olympics held in the year 2016 (8 years or some 3000+ days from today). Not only are people sure that they would be held, people are making serious investments of time, money and effort based on the belief that they would. And, indeed, if I were to bet I would bet that they would.
And, then, there are these elections in Pakistan. Supposedly they are to be held in just a week. 7 days. And yet, it is not fully clear whether they would, in fact, be held on schedule. After all, there have been schedules before, but no elections (remember, we even had a poll on whether they would be held in 2007)!
Frankly, if I were to bet I would (at this point) bet that they would, indeed, be held on schedule. But the odds are still not as strong as for the 2018 Olympics.
With the ANP political rally being bombed, noises about postponements, a severe lack of trust in anything that the Musharraf government says, immense trepidation amongst the political parties, continuing clampdown on civil society, the lingering shocks of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, and a general air of societal unease and despondent uncertainty all over the country, I am not surprised that the most common question that I have been asked by journalists recently is whether the elections will be held on time or not.
Its not just the uncertainty of whether elections will happen? Nor even what might happen in the elections, but also that of what might happen after the elections; irrespective of what the results may be. One follows the news from Kenya with a grave sense of foreboding these days. A sense of nervousness borne out of unbearable uncertainty.
I am not surprised, but I am annoyed. But I am not annoyed at the journalists, I am annoyed at the question. At the fact that it is, in fact, a fair question. That it is a fair question is what makes it troubling. The uncertainty that this question reflects is a fact of what Pakistan has become today. A place where we cannot be certain of anything. Where you wake up every morning not knowing what might have happened overnight or could happen today.
This uncertainly is not just uncomfortable, it is costly. I have not done the math, but no matter how you count, this uncertainty has to be expensive. How do you plan for anything? What is the cost to business of not knowing what might happen in 7 days, or even one? What is the cost to governance? To citizens? The cost of angst? The cost of anguish? The cost of just not knowing where things are heading? And most importantly, the cost of the feeling that you have little to no control over where they will head!
As I have already stated above, I think the elections are likely to be held this time. The domestic pressure and the international scrutiny is too high for them not to. I also believe that Olympics will, in fact, be held in 2018.The difference is that the first is a statement of hope; a likely probability at best. The second is a statement of certainty.
Living with such uncertainty cannot possibly be good. It cannot be good for citizens, it cannot be good for business, it cannot be good for politicians, and it certainly cannot be good for society. The tragedy of it all is that even if we have elections in 7 days, the uncertainty will not really disappear.
It is interesting to see how political parties are going through the election exercise/process and also complaining about impending ‘dhaaNdli’ that they foresee. It is more like the childhood story of ‘bheRiya aaya..bheRiya aaya’. It is also like an insurance policy to give a face-saving to these parties in case results are not to their liking.
adil:
it is indeed full of uncertainty and we are left to speculate…. if another leader is assassinated then it may yet be postponed
but
one thing can be said with certainty
there will be dissent and protests and claims of rigging by the parties AFTER the elections
and if those get out of hands then there will be more uncertainty until the tried and tested happens all over again much to the detriment of all democratic forces in the country;)
Adil
You’ve raised a very valid point on ‘uncertainity’ in Pakistan. Nothing is certain there until it happens without any untoward incident. Growing up in the siege mentality of Karachi of late80s to mid90s, I am very familiar with uncertainity. Whole localities used to get opened or suddnely closed down due to daily events. Exams in institutions were uncertain. Once there was a strike planned by a political party. We studied for the exam without knowing if we’ll be able to reach the exam center or not. In the end we reached the center with too much difficulty to find out the exam was cancelled. It used to be so uncertain there that people used to read eveninig newspapers first to determine whenther to go home from their usual routes or avoid taking them due to some untoward incident that may’ve happened. I am not exaggerating here. It was very true in 1992-95 time.
nobody did long term planning. all businesses wanted their profits now because ‘kal ka kuch pata na tha’. One thing that i do cherish being abroad is the ‘certainity’ (or atleast the mental feeling of it) in everything. You can buy a ticket for something that is scheduled to happen 3 years from now and be rest assured that it will happen at its designated time.
So the uncertain feeling of election timing in Pakistan stems from the same general psyche where most of the things are on ad-hoc basis and nothing is final until it happens.
You raise a good point about the cost of uncertainty. Neither businesses nor people can really organize and plan anything in Pakistan because everything is always so difficult to predict. One big reason why our business can not deal with global companies easily. But even for individuals this makes life very very difficult.
Adil Bhai,
Excellent post, I believe elections will take place on the day but they may well be bloody I fear, I hope against hope that is not true.
On a more positive note there is a ray of sunshine with some ‘lay people’ like Munnaza Razaq in Lahore NA-121 standing for elections, see my post and feel better below:
http://www.otherpakistan.org/archive.html
Feimanallah
Wasim