Adil Najam
Since yesterday the “I” word – impeachment – has begun to be thrown around a lot.
Some quarters seem to think that it just happen this time. Others suggest that it is more talk than action and the numbers needed to pull this are still not there.
Coming out of the “critical” Nawaz Sharif-Asif Zardari meetings one keeps wondering how much of this is an effort to keep the coalition going and how much is a real push to change the essential political equations of Pakistan. There are reports that Gen. Musharraf is taking this move seriously enough to cancel his trip to China (to attend the Olympics opening ceremony). On the other hand some of Gen. Musharraf’s supporters are claiming that no such cancellation has happened. We do know, however, that he is taking this challenge seriously and lining up his supporters.
All in all, there is too much noise to say what is happening. But something is clearly happening. Does the PPP-PML(N) have the numbers they need to go ahead? Does the President have the numbers he needs to stop it? And what of all the external actors and where they may lean, why and for what?
Interestingly, we had run a ATP Poll back in June asking you what you thought would have happened to Gen. Musharraf by October 2008? The majority (38%) had thought that he would be impeached by then. A significant number (31%) thought that by October 2008 we woudl be still muddling through as we are now.
We do not intend to open the Poll again, but it does seem that either of those two answers could turn out to be true again. Indeed, even our earlier Poll on the subject, from October 2007, may still be relevant in its results!
So, since we can’t make full sense of exactly what all of this adds up to, we thought we woudl ask our best source: You. What do you think? What is happening? What might happen? And why?
At this point I think it is now safe to say that (a) Musharraf will leave, and (b) not through impeachment but by resignation.
But what will happen after that. Who will become president and will the coalition survive. I think things could remain unstable for a long time.
auk @
The part of
Thing is, with all these extensive debates and ‘discussions’ no one seems to realize that Pakistan is falling deeper and deeper in to trouble. With the rupee at a record low, inflation rising, crime increasing and disease spreading, the last thing on the plate should be an extensive discussion by the ‘ruling party’.
Their reasons are more personal and petty instead of being for the betterment of the country. What shocks me is that two of the most corrupt men, Sharif and Zardari are living the good life at the expense of Pakistani taxpayers.
– The solution is to first of stop fighting fire with fire – with the Taliban – because that is obviously not working. Their infiltration is honestly just scary.
– Second, reinstate judges and make them completely untouchable to the whims of political leaders – Musharaff and Sharif are both to blame for this.
– Third – hold an election where those running can only qualify if they have (a) a higher education degree (b) no corruption charges in their entire careers (c) no jail time in their life span
I am wondering what part of the word “Democracy” folks here have difficulty understanding.
There are those who claim that Musharraf is perhaps the best thing that happened to Pakistan since Jinnah. I don’t want to burst your bubble, but here are the vote counts from the three assemblies.
Punjab 321/371 (86%) for impeachment
Pakhtoonkhwa 107/124 (86%) for impeachment
Sindh 93/163 (57%) for impeachment
I am sure that our Baloch brothers would vote for impeachment more overwhelmingly than all others.
Then there are those who are claiming that reelections should be held to solve our problems. I beg to ask, why, and if elections were to be held, how would they prove to be a balm for our sufferings this time?
The 2 main problems that the country is facing (an illegal president and his illegally appointed Judiciary) were problems that existed before the elections. Also does anyone have a clue as to the “Cost” of holding elections in Pakistan. Besides the Billions spent by the government, there are hidden costs in terms of work stoppage and productivity loss.
Before we pass any judgment against this government, please keep in mind these facts. The people elected these representatives for 5 years, let them do their job.
This is not about individuals, or personalities, but about the system; a system that we usually have trouble running. For Pakistan to succeed, the system has to win; today, tomorrow and after tomorrow. Otherwise we will keep experimenting with failed policies and will keep failing Pakistan.
Zardari is leaving for Europe for medical treatment again. It means that either (a) a deal with Musharraf has already been stuck or (b) he is so confident that Musharraf will be impeached or leave that he is willing to be away in this crucial time?