Adil Najam
The military is never really out of the news in Pakistan. Nor is it ever far from the center of Pakistan politics. But recent event have brought the question of where the Pakistan military is headed into even sharper relief than usual.
There is much speculation – maybe too much speculation – on where the Pakistan military is headed in the coming days and weeks.
There are some who argue that following the attack on the GHQ the military will act even more swiftly on extremists in Pakistan – whether in the Waziristan region or in Southern Punjab. Others feel that the furore created by the Kerry-Lugar Bill has so poisoned the civil-military relationship in Pakistan that even the immediate future of Pakistan’s political displacements may (again) be in doubt. Yet others would argue that while the tensions are all real, the military is in that phase that comes after each prolonged period of military rule when it prefers to remain in the political background while it consolidates its public image.
My own current sense is that there may be some truth in all three scenarios. Possibly in a combination of the three. Of course, there could be other directions in the mix too. What do you think? Where is the Pakistan military headed in the next many days? And what does that mean about where Pakistan is headed?
Comments from the ATP Facebook Page:
– “I guess Military remains the most powerful politican party in Pak. Its so funny that the Corps Commanders discussed a foreign policy matter in their meeting? Why didn’t the high officials in Police, Rangers, Customs, Railways etc discuss this bill in their meetings? On top of that, The Chief said he didn’t like the bill. Who the hell is he to say this in the presence of a National Assambly? Only this thing was enough to make me mad. They are Govt Servants who are supposed to do their respective job:)(I have no political affiliations)”
– “the day our President, PM, politicians and Parliament becomes that capable, Army would not have to do the politics”
– “This approach also supports illegal actions of all the generals in the history of Pak.”
– “there are channels which the army could’ve used to express their opinion. Going on media like this… not good. Then again, one can’t just sit and watch when stakes are that high.”
– “u guys wont understand,this is all about politics,both the govt n army r doing all this to get money also but without restrictions,y r we wasting time on them???”
– “Noone is arguing here that the politicians are angels; they are all corrupt.But we should let the system work. At this point in the history of Pak, Army should be told in very clear words what their role is. If you do not disapprove this, you are telling the army, come and topple AGAIN:) ‘Stakes’ were always high for all the marshal laws.”
– “USA doesn’t give zakat. She looks for her own interests. So getting money without any restrictions won’t happen.”
– “constitution is the system if you dont follow constitution than there is only MUSSHRAF SYSTEM,ZARDARI SYSTEM.——.Wich system should be allowed to work because nobody follows the constitution,thus there is actually no system.”
– “well, constitution thing is good, but time has proven that this Democracy is not the system suitable for Muslims. Remember in Constitution, it is mentioned that Islam would be the religion of state, but Islam doesn’t support this version of Democracy. We desperately need to change our system, otherwise we’ll be always like slaves”
– “If a version does not work for us, lets modify it and make it work. Let us not blame the version or the system, but only ourselves for not doing enough to make it work.
Under the present circumstances, event Khilafat would collapse, so please let us all work on the basics to be provided to a nation before it can accept any form of governance as legitimate. the only quick revolution available to pakistanis at the moment is talibanistan and that not what the majority wants, so a slow revolutionary cleanup is needed, not a quickfix. It starts with stopping our servitude to all : The USA, Saudi Arabia and China and focussing on what is in Pakistan’s interest.”
– “all of us completely agree on the fact that our politicians are not angels; they are all corrupt and we have selected them, however, what choice did Pakistani people have? people like us hate politics/politicians after years of programed destruction of its/their image and off course army had the great role to play in it (in addition to the self destructive role politicians played in it). The fact remains that political government as much corrupt it can be is still answerable to the public in contrast to army dictators who are not answerable to any body. Army should be restricted to their barracks and to perform their jobs under commands from civilian government and not other way around, they have already destroyed our country enough. The sooner we realize this fact, the better.
It is essential for the future of our country that educated masses start to take interest in politics, because we need honest and really hard working people (with no familial and feudal connection) to serve this country.
It is time that GHQ gets the hell out of politics. I strongly believe that if we let the political process continue and if good people start to join politics, after some years bad people will be shunted out and we would see some prosperity in our country. (off course i have no political association).”
– “in THEORY I agree with you but in PRACTICAL ON-THE-GROUND REALITY in Pakistan, I do not. All we need is a political LEADER who leads the nation and the Army will automatically restrict itself to its defined role. That LEADER it seems will take some time to come. Until that time we have to live with this tweak in our political system”
– “they dont giv zakat they want us to take money n shut up,their weapons were caught in swat,this money is to show that they were innocent n their weapons were used but they dont have any idea how?”
– “You seem to believe in ‘conspiracy theories’ which don’t have any evidence, whatsoever:)”
– “with all due respect, when you authorize the army to be responsible for the national security of this country, than it becomes obligatory upon them to discuss foreign policy issues. You argument is not only shows your ignorance and lack of knowledge, but i question how is the customs, railways responsible for national security. And yet again, the police and rangers are subservient to the interior ministry. But, when the PM of Pakistan openly declares, the Chief of Army Staff will have fully authority to conduct operations and define national security policy, than you surrender you power. The PM could have had appointed the Defence minister, but he chose to appoint the Chief. So when you put a person in charge on National Security, he discusses such stuff in the greater interest of the country. So no sir, he does not dare himself, to say such stuff, he is given the authority by the political government to flex his muscles. Under the rules of business, the President should convey anything he has to say to the PM, the PM to the Defence Minister, Defence Minister to the Chairman Joint Staff Committee and it the CJSC who is the only person authorize to deal directly with the Chief of Army Staff. But, since the political leadership, deems it fit to deal with him directly, you surrender authority. So think again!
@ all : I have been noticing this alot, on alot of blogs, that alot of arguments are based on hatred towards the army, rather than on merits. I respect the opinion of all of you people, but please, dont judge the army on basis of the actions of one man, but rather on merits. The Army is a friend to this country, so do not consider it your enemy. I strongly urge you all to re consider. We all have someone in the army. These individuals in the army are a part of our society. They are all as committed as any of your relatives or friends in the army. So i hope we collectively re consider our opinion.”
– “Its not a question if Army is friend or not. Everyone needs to do his/her own job. Chief of the Army Staff is a Govt servant; he isn’t supposed to have any role in any policy, whatsoever. Zaradari has a Defence Ministry, a Foriegn Ministery and please note, Army doesn’t have to do anything with the National Security. They are just supposed to follow the orders of the Head of the State. Rescue people in floods, protect in case of an invasion; within or outside etc. Guess what, if the PM announces that the Chief of the Army Staff needs to run the operations; thats what he is supposed to do; he needs to shut up on policy issues. You can’t ask an engineer to perfrom a cardiac surgery:)”
I think Zardari lost this round.. he overplayed his hand for self preservation and after strong posturing by the army against the K-L bill, he is on retreat. Hussain Hakani, PK ambassador in Washington, who also played a key role in including clauses to control army is on the way out and some other changes are coming.
Army will not take over however will stay in the background. It knows well that the money spigot is elsewhere and it is not possible for country that runs on grants and aid from overseas to be fiercely independent…
Army may take swift action however spares for helicopters are in short supply, AF is short of precision munition, attrition rate is high and the mess is getting bigger.
Attention needs to be focused also on Punjabi Talibans in addition to NWFP.
Pakistan needs breathing room to chart her own destiny. Pakistan also needs statesmen. All in short supply. This month may be crucial.
Sadly, the situation is so dire that we would be happy with any arrangement that ensures the basic safety of people who are being butchered every single day.
The latest civilian-military tiff over the Lerry-Lugar Bill once again underscores the fact that the Pak Army is the dominant power center in Pakistan. Thus, it is a no-brainer that whenever there is a civilian dispensation in Pakistan, the country resembles an organization which has two CEOs. And whenver push comes to shove, it turns out one CEO has much more say in so far as the security, foreign, and thus – by extension- the economic policies are concerned. This situation is clearly exacrbated by the fact that our politicians are always undercutting each other for their own petty ends, while the military is a much more cohesive organization, clear-headed about its objective, and intent upon securing its own interest and dominance by any means. It must be understood that, to the military, this conduct seems neither selfish nor unjustified, as it really believes that, ultimately, it is the sole arbiter of the national interest of Pakistan. Indeed, to someone like Gen. Musharraf for instance, the military IS Pakistan.
Unless the people of Pakistan realize that too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth, and muster the courage to change this state of affairs once and for all, this circus is likely to continue.
More important than the K-L Bill, which is no doubt intrusive, Pakistanis need urgently to figure out how their nation is goig to be governed. Until they do, the military will remain firmly perched at the top.
This time do not blame the army as the civilian Government seems like a servile to the USA and so incompetent that public support against might take a turn for the worst if it does not take some respectful steps.
Like standing up and challenging some aspects of arrogance from USA when that is necessary when the sovereignty of Pakistan is being sold at a very cheap price.
Pakistan is sacrificed 2000 soldiers and 2.200 civilians far more than what USA had lost in 9/11 attacks and the war in Afghanistan, but still USA and their media says Pakistan has not done enough. Has anyone in the Government stood up to state this fact to the western media and what Pakistan has suffered by supporting this war on terror?