Grading Our Leaders: Some Surprising Poll Results

Posted on April 18, 2010
Filed Under >Adil Najam, ATP Poll, People, Politics
25 Comments
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Adil Najam

At one level the results of our ATP Poll on Grading Pakistan’s leadership and power centers are not surprising at all. However, when we compare the result of this ATP Poll to related ATP Polls held in June 2009 and September 2009, then there is a rather interesting trend that seems to be apparent in the responses from our readers.

In the overall results, counting the grades given by more than 850 readers for each ofteh six categories, President Asif Ali Zardari was given an average grade of D+ (GPA=1.38 on a 4 point scale), Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani gets a grade of C (GPA=1.96), Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry gets a grade of C+ (GPA=2.21), Chief of Army Staff Gen. Pervez Ashfaq Kiyani also gets a grade of C+ (2.28), Leader of the Opposition Nawaz Sharif gets a grade of D (GPA=1.00) and the Pakistan Media was given a grade of C- (GPA=1.64). As before, we used the standard 4-point scale to convert the votes into a letter grade (A=4.0, B=3.0, C=2.0, D=1.0, F=0.0).

Not unexpectedly, it is the votes at the extremes that defined the results. Strong supporters, and often even stronger opponents, voted at the extremes. Nearly a quarter of all votes cast (some 1,300 combined votes out of the combined 5,221 votes cast in the six categories) gave a grade of “F” (Failing). Extreme grading  indeed; and not different from the last time we held this Poll. The most F’s were given to President Zardari (45%), with Nawaz Sharif trailing closely with 37% F’s,  Prime Minister Gillani getting 20% F’s, the media getting 18% F’s, Gen. Kiyani 17% F’s, and the Chief Justice getting 12% F’s. This meant that getting a decent grade was statistically impossible for anyone, even though the A’s were also quite generous for many of them: Gen. Kiyani got 26% A’s, the Chief Justice got 19% A’s, President Zardari and Prime Minister Gillani both got 18% A’s, the Media got 7% A’s and the least A’s went to Nawaz Sharif for whom only 3% of the votes were A’s.

But none of this is that surprising, or even that interesting. What is interesting and surprising is the comparison to our previous ATP Poll. Although these are not scientific polls and they are certainly not reflective of what “Pakistan thinks” they are certainly representative of what ATP readers think, and since that readership has not changed by much between last year and now, one assumes that at least in this cohort of Pakistanis there are some interesting trends that can be deciphered:

  • The only leaders whose average grade has improved since June 2009 are President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani. President Zardari moved up from a grade of D (GPA=0.97) to D+ (GPA=1.38) in this period, an impressive GPA jump of +0.41. Prime Minister Gillani moved up from a grade of C- (GPA=1.67) to C (GPA=1.96), with a GPA jump of +0.29. One assumes that the recent passage of the 18th amendment has something to do with this.
  • The deepest decline in grade – by a full grade point – was seen by Opposition Leader Nawaz Sharif, who moved from a grade of C (GPA=1.91) in June 2009 down to a grade of D (GPA=1.00) in April 2010. His also now has the distinction of having the lowest grade in the pack.
  • The only person whose grade remained the same in both periods was Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Although he remains at a C+, there is a GPA decline of -0.15 from 2.36 to 2.21 which implies that there is a decline, although not enough to change his grade.
  • The Army Chief also saw a decline in his grade from a B- in June 2009 to a C+ now. This implies a GPA decline of -0.40 from 2.68 to 2.28. One assumes that the current military operations may have something to do with this.
  • Even the Media has seen a decline in its grade. Back in September 2009 the Media had scored a C grade with a GPA of 2.06, now it scored a C- with a GPA of 1.64; a GPA decline of -0.42.

As always, one should caution that we cannot make any more of this than we should. It is, after all, a blog poll and reflects the opinions of a particular type of Pakistanis. But it does suggest that the opinion of this type of Pakistani may be shifting just that slightly; at least for the moment.

25 responses to “Grading Our Leaders: Some Surprising Poll Results”

  1. Qadir says:

    I like this poll and good that you have done this again, I think you should do it every few months to map the trends.

  2. Some comments from the ATP Facebook Page:

    – “Very interesting results. Any maybe not incorrect. But as you say Zardari still gets most F votes, even if he does better than last time his grade is still only D+. Good that Sharif’s is a even lower grade, a D!”
    – “People are loving the suffering of no electricity? If these polls are true then Pakistan ka Allah Hafiz. Pakistan has no chance.”
    – “Nawaz Sharif should be out of Pakistan , he is no body, But Army below Zardari is not making sense to me.”
    – “I don’t think Army is below Zardari, Kiyani’s grade is C+ and Zardari’s is D+, but Zardaris grade has gone up from last time this was done and Kiyani’s has come down.”
    – “But, also, Kiyani’s grade is good because he is OUT of politics. I voted a high grade for him for staying OUT of politics. If he messes with politics then he is also a FAILURE.”
    – “u really think this abject nd corrupt nd incompetent lot can improve things. If so then God will also not help is.”
    – “God is neither a politician nor a dictator.. So pinning your hopes on the invisible hand will do you no good.. It’s time we as a nation become and hold ourselves and others accountable for actions”
    – “Voice of the people is the voice of God”
    – “i would not like to grade them because unfortunatly they r not able to be graded”
    – “ma is sub ko na ahel karar data hu except army.”
    – “These are incorrect Nawaz Sharif Deserves an A+ Media deserves B+ Kyani Deserves A Gilani Deserves B+ Zaradri deserves D”
    – “chief justice deserves A+++++”
    – “strange, very very strange”

  3. Majid says:

    Results are not much strange but incline in zaradari reputation is shocking. The person who has looted Pakistan is being upgraded. I don’t know how we are thinking. Nevertheless I need to second also Adil Nishapuri “What else could we expect from Pakistan’s urban, English speaking middle class, fond of finding faults with politicians and looking for certain saviours in the GHQ and the Supreme Court.”

  4. I dont think that this poll could be termed as voice of Pakistan. But nonetheless it should be an eye opener for those who are champs of democracy.

  5. Sada says:

    I think you whole comparison exercise is flawed and inappropriate. How come we can rate people and then pit their ratings together when the nature of their jobs is totally different and on varying levels. Politicians are in policy making and law making role and therefore they should be compared within this stream. Whereas, CJ and Army Chief are merely implementing authorities and they should not be placed at all with political leadership. Politicians’ job is much tough and cumbersome. They have to create balance and address range of social and political challenges unlike rest of two. Furthermore, I am not a fan of Nawaz Sharif but even the most recent Gallop survey shows that he is the most popular leader in Pakistan (I am not saying in all parts of Pakistan). There is definitely some systematic bias against him in the readership of this blog. The outcome of recent by-elections also establish this point.

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