The Politics of Politics: Afghanistan, BiBi, MMA and Inflation

Posted on January 5, 2007
Filed Under >Adil Najam, Economy & Development, Foreign Relations, Politics
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Adil Najam

It is news galore today. As if news and newsmakers have awakened from the meat-induced slumber of Baqra Eid, and done so with a vengeance.

First I thought of doing a post on Benazir Bhutto saying that PPP was ready for elections under Musharraf but the opposition would resign if the President tried to get himself re-elected by the current Assemblies (see related, here). Then, I was the news about Qazi Hussain Ahmad thinking of quitting as MMA President (see related, here). But then I read the details of this amazingly undiplomatic press conference in Kabul where Hamid Karzai, the Afghan President, pretty much told Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz that these ceremonial summit visits were of no use (see distantly related, here). While still in shock from that reading I saw Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, the Governor of the State Bank, essentially confirming what we have been saying here for a while: inflation is real, and rising (also see here).

What should one write about. Each of these deserves a post. When in doubt, do all.

All of these are not just about politics; they are about the politics of politics. Each – except maybe the inflation – could change quickly. Each of these – including inflation – are being talked about the way it is being talked about precisely because it makes political sense to do so and do so now.

Let me start with the story about Afghanistan, which I think is the most disturbing and serious of the lot. The headline in Dawn reads, ‘Barbs Fly at Kabul Meet’; and indeed they did:

Negotiations between Islamabad and Kabul turned out to be unproductive when Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Thursday that the help resurgent Taliban militants received on the Pakistani side of the border soured relations between the estranged neighbours. In what was seen by many as a disagreeable departure from diplomatic norms, President Karzai, beside himself with anger, told Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz at a joint press conference that top-level visits bore little fruit if Afghanistan remained bedevilled by what he described as cross-border terrorism.

“If our children continue to be killed, our teachers continue to get killed, and students get discouraged, there would be no use of such high-profile visits by the leaders,” he said… “And that, unfortunately, the gap in ties is increasing between Afghanistan and Pakistan…It is with a lot of regret that relations face a lack of trust,” President Karzai said at the joint press conference. Having received such a wintry welcome in the windswept capital of Afghanistan, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who seemed to exercise considerable restraint, said Islamabad had increased financial aid to the strife-torn country by $50 million to $300 million. He said the two sides, which had a tense round of talks for three hours, agreed to start the stalled repatriation process of three million Afghan refugees.

The situation is indeed dire. Islamabad seems bent on building its border fence, and although ccomplaining about cross-border infiltration, Kabul is loathe to the idea, partly because it considers the border to be still disputed. The meeting last year between Presidents Bush, Musharraf and Karzai in Washington had been similarly unproductive. One wishes that in this case Washington – which considers both Kabul and Islamabad to be key allies – would step in and reconcile. But there are no signs that it will.

The second interesting news item was on the BiBi interview. According to the Daily Times:

Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has said her Pakistan Peoples Party is ready to participate in general elections under President Gen Pervez Musharraf, but warned that all opposition parties would unite and quit parliament if Gen Musharraf tried to get re-elected president from the present assemblies… She said Nawaz Sharif had not yet decided whether to participate… She said her recent meeting with PML President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain in Dubai was a coincidence and Imran Khan had witnessed this meeting. “There was nothing clandestine between me and Chaudhry Shujaat. We just had a social conversation and Imran Khan is a witness to this meeting,” she said.

My own sense is that a reconciliation of sorts is in the works. Why do I think so? Not just because she has just summoned Amin Fahim to Dubai to discuss developments with her, but also because everyone seems to be denying that there is any deal. The two parallel headlines in The News (5 January), for example, were: “Shujaat Rules Out Any Deal with PPP” and “PPP Also Denies.” Call me a cynic, but when politicians try to deny something this hard, by immediate instinct is to assume that there has to be some truth to it.

The third story of the day is about our friends in the MMA and whether Qazi Hussain Ahmad will resign the Presidency of the coalition. The News (5 January) reports:

Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) President and Jamaat-i-Islami Amir Qazi Hussain Ahmad said on Thursday he wanted to quit the presidency of the alliance and be replaced by a new leader with consensus. Addressing a press conference here, Qazi said a meeting of the MMA supreme council has been convened on January 11 in which resignations from parliament and other important issues regarding forthcoming general elections would be taken up. He added that his stand on tendering resignations from parliament was intact, which, according to him, was endorsed by the alliance supreme council. “Maulana Fazlur Rehman is not agreeing with the unanimous decision of the supreme council,” he said. Qazi said that he would never expect elections under the present set-up. “We have a clear-cut stand; we will neither accept Gen Musharraf in military uniform nor without uniform as president.”

Given all the previous commotion on resignatitions I, for one, am going to wait on this one and see oont kiss qarwat baithta hai.

The last story is about inflation and for ordinary Pakistanis its impact may be the most profound. In an exclusive interview with Dawn (5 January), this is what Dr. Shamshad, the State Bank Governor, had to say:

The State Bank fears that inflation is likely to inch past – at least by one percentage point – the annual budgetary target set for the year 2006-07… State Bank Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar told Dawn that higher-than-expected food inflation and the governments inability to pass on the benefits of declining international oil prices to domestic consumers would cause inflation to range between 6.8 per cent and 7.5 per cent. The government set the annual inflation target for the financial year at 6.5 per cent. Dr Akhtar, who became Pakistan’s first woman central bank governor in January, blamed food price hike on higher consumer price index – a type of inflation that hits domestic consumers most.

Pakistan witnessed the highest ever current account deficit of $5 billion during financial year 2006 as compared to the deficit of $1.5 billion in the previous year. She hoped that continued shrinking of the debt to GDP ratio and high economic growth would stablise the country’s external current account. Responding to criticism that low national saving is a function of abysmally low rate of return to depositors in Pakistan, Dr Akhtar said a whole range of factors were responsible for the country’s low saving rates. “Pakistani society’s high propensity to consume, predominance of cash economy, people’s reluctance to declare money, lack of access to banking services and lack of resources and saving habits are some of factors responsible for low saving rate,” she said.

I am glad that Dr. Shamshad has acknowledged the issue. Acknowledgement is the first step towards action. I hope, however, that the politics of politics does not get in the way here. Inflation needs to be tackled head on, no matter what the politics of the day dictates.

As I look at the four stories above, I realize that each of them derives from key trends that we had identified for our ATP Poll on the key news trends of 2006. I have not yet had a chance to analyze the results but will do so soon. Meanwhile, here are the raw numbers as they stand currently; relate them to the four news items above; its an interesting exercise.

{democracy:2}

15 Comments on “The Politics of Politics: Afghanistan, BiBi, MMA and Inflation”

  1. Daktar says:
    January 5th, 2007 1:41 am

    You are probably correct on the BB-Mush deal. If everyone is denying it so strongly, then it must be true!

    The Afghanistan situation is getting worse but I think the theatrics by Karzai were unnecessary and unhelpful. He is just trying to divert domestic and US pressures.

  2. TURAB says:
    January 5th, 2007 5:28 am

    Karzai is a whinning baby…… he needs to get his own house in order before anything else… his tantrums are not welcome here…

  3. Ibrahim says:
    January 5th, 2007 7:52 am

    Salamalikum,

    The worst thing would be for Bibi or Nawaz to come back to rule. I mean, after seven years of turmoil, Pakistan would be back to square one. Same people, same corruption, and on top of that a puppet government ruled by Mush.

  4. Jamshed Nazar says:
    January 5th, 2007 7:54 am

    I am a new visiter to your site. Nice work here!

    On the Karzai story, the issue is Karzai lacks an Afghan “ISI”! Why is it that the same Mullahs are playing Jehadis in Kashmir / Afghanistan but prove to be paper tigers inside Pakistan for decades? Causes for starting a “Jehad” inside Pakistan are much more strong than outside the country. However, the Mullahs are kept in line by the all powerful Pakistan Army and the ISI with carrots and sticks – money, patronage, training camps, and other offline support like permits and perks. Perhaps, Mr Karzai should focus on strengthing his Armies rather than compalining to — of all people – Mr Shaukat Aziz!!

    On BB’s underhand dealings with Prez. Musharraf, all deals are only useful as to the level of “assistance” giving to PPP during the election campaign. However, the real deal making will only occur after the elections are done and over with. Depending on the numbers needed for the next Govt, BB may get crumbs or a major share in Government. Whatever engineering done in the elections, at the end of the day, the swing vote from the people does count. However, it does appear that there is significant headwind blowing against the Q League. Would a visible deal before the elections not harm PPP for the swing voters?

    And about Qazi and Fazlurrehman, to me it is obvious that they are just playing good cop bad cop. Behind the scenes, both are happy with what they have and looking for more.

    All said and done, in the comical theatre of musical chairs that is the politics of pakistan, I think we are fortunate that a smart guy like Musharraf is leading the show.

  5. Samdani says:
    January 5th, 2007 10:24 am

    I do not think we can jujst dismiss Karzai has having a bad temper. Afghanistan has some serious and real concerns, espeically about the border and the recent deals with the tribal leaders. Pakistan needs to look at Afghanistants concerns too and look at it as an equal neighbor rather than trying to ‘control’ Afghanistan policy. The irony is that Afghansitan now feels pretty much the same distrust for Pakistan that Pakistan feels for India: That Pakistan is trying to dominate Afghanistan.

  6. Kumail says:
    January 5th, 2007 11:19 am

    With regards to the Karzai outburst, somebody needs to knock some sense into this guy. Putting up a performance and undermining the premier of a neigbhouring country wont do him any good. Aside from fencing the borders, the over 2 million refugees need to be repatriated. It shouldnt come as a surprise to anyone that Afghan refugees filter into motherland to support some of these ‘terrorist’ activities.
    That is not to say that Pakistani volunteers have not been spotted in Taliban ranks, but with over two generations of Afghans having grown up in Pakistan, whats to distinguish them from anohter Pashtun.
    What saddens me to a great extent is Karzai’s failure to recognize that Pakistan has been embracing Afghan refugees in hoards for over two decades now. To say its not had an impact on Pakistan itself would be a huge understatement. In major metropolis like Karachi and Lahore, the refugees have been accomodated and given a lifestyle similar to that which they may have been accustomed in their homeland. This may not be story for all of them but there is a handsome number thats become a part of social fabric. The least Karzai can do is recognize this support and express some gratitude for it.

  7. Zak says:
    January 5th, 2007 12:41 pm

    the Afghan situation is very much a case of reversal of fortune. From 1947 to 1975 it was Afghanistan that was actively interfering in Pakistan, after 1975 the roles reversed. The difference being when the big powers got involved millions of Afghans died, whereas no such similar event occurred in Pakistan from 1947-1975. I think Karzais comments were in poor taste, and reflects more his own frustration at the worsening situation in Afghanistan. Perhaps he should think about retiring and allowing a stronger and more efective leader to take over.

    With regard to BB and Qazi. it’s my considered opinion that military dictators always try to co=opt major parties when they start running out of steam politically. These arrangements tend to collapse, simply because the opportunists that they brought in around them sabotage such agreements because it means they are out of a job. As far as Qazi is concerned, I hope he follows through with his pledge. I think the MMA’s polarisation into the money hungry JUI and the power hungry JI once Noorani died and the two groups started ignoring the smaller parties.

    The bit about inflation is no surprise.

  8. Deeda-i-Beena says:
    January 5th, 2007 2:38 pm

    The noise factor of Karzai is a well known, well tried and understandable tactic. Without it Afghanistan would again be forgotten as it did post-soviet collapse.It was almost forgotten after the post 9/11 war and the Conference pledging (the undelivered)Billions in reconstruction and development Aid. The frequent Karzai Tantrums keep Afghanistan on the front-burner.
    Pakistan has always been the sole lifeline of land-locked Afghanistan and has always received preferential treatment for its transit/transportation facilities, often in preference to Pakistan’s own domestic needs. This is obviously well-known to Karzai and the Afghans who know.
    Simply stated: NO NOISE NO ATTENTION.
    A Few sayings come to mind that describe his behaviour towards Pakistan:
    1) Biting the hand that feeds you.
    2)…..ting in the plate you eat from. and the punjabi verse:
    3) Chichon Chiech Ganderian – Do Terian Do Merian
    Uton Uton Khaie Ja – Wichon Raula Paie Ja

  9. Eidee Man says:
    January 5th, 2007 9:46 pm

    [quote comment="24035"]Salamalikum,

    The worst thing would be for Bibi or Nawaz to come back to rule. I mean, after seven years of turmoil, Pakistan would be back to square one. Same people, same corruption, and on top of that a puppet government ruled by Mush.[/quote]

    While I (and I guess most people here) agree that the reigns of Benazir and Nawaz brought us nothing to be proud of, I want these parties to come back into the mainstream simply for the good of the country. We might dislike the party leadership, but there is no denying that these parties hold great power and it is in every Pakistani’s interest to see some level of unity and cohesion in our government.

    As for the issue of Karzai, it’s not a surprise, really. I mean, he’s presiding over a country he has zero control over…Afghanistan has traded religious extremists for secular extremists……Pakistan probably does have some problem with the ISI given its history of cooperation with the Taliban but I find it extremely unlikely that Karzai’s accusations have any basis; if that had been the case, we would have DEFINITELY heard something similar to the U.S. exerting pressure on Pakistan….which they have, but not at the level to suggest what Karzai is saying.

  10. B.I. says:
    January 6th, 2007 8:48 pm

    I am a little surprised at how quick people are to blame Karzai. We have not been as kind to the Afghans as we think. Especially in the Zia days of the refugees. We used them for our purposes and then left them dry (exactly like US does to us). Read Ahmad Rashid’s book on this.

  11. Rather Agnostic says:
    January 7th, 2007 1:04 pm

    [quote comment="24887"] We used them for our purposes and then left them dry (exactly like US does to us). Read Ahmad Rashid’s book on this.[/quote]

    At least we did not deport them (probably we should have). I have not read anyone more biased then Ahmad Rashid in Pak Afghan context. Isn’t he the same person who proposed a few days back that Pakistan should conduct referendum in FATA to decide whether the tribal area would be a part of Pakistan or Afghanistan.

    Formerly Moderately_Secular …..

  12. Afzaal Khan says:
    January 7th, 2007 5:19 pm

    A lot has been said abt Karzai’s outbursts, as for me its not him but Indians and Neocons of US talking and telling Pak wat they think through him. He was and still remain nothing then a puppet. As for refugees repartition, “kon jeeta hai teri zulf ke sir honey tak” no one is going back no matter wat Pak or Afghan govt does. Where they should go, Afghanistan remain still unstable and still unhabitable.
    As for Qazi sahib resignation, I think it is high time he quits politics all together. His leadership has seen Jamat go down, astrayed from the Maulana Maududi’s philosophy and priniciples(anyone remember Paasban tehreek, enough said).
    As to Mr. Jamshed Nazer’s comment Causes for starting a “Jehadâ€

  13. HJ says:
    January 11th, 2007 12:19 am

    I think its time to take away Karzai’s corpoarte Amex and let him pay for his own meals – that will sure shut him up. Also, next time he wishes to visit his house in Quetta, he should be asked to get a tourist visa, provide proof of residence, tax statements, permit for his weapons, bank statements going back five years as well as proof of citizenship.

    Karzai is a dummy – but who controls the strings?
    HJ

  14. February 9th, 2007 7:14 am

    [...] “The decision to this effect was taken at the meeting of the JUI executive council in Lahore a couple of days ago. National Assembly Opposition Leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman presided over the meeting,â€

  15. April 4th, 2008 1:00 am

    Aslamolkam
    I am jamil rahman habibi .
    ok
    i need information about inflation of pakistan

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