Adil Najam
I was going to use the term APC - All Parties Conference - in the headline but just realized that Dawn is now using the term MPC - Multi-Party Conference - to describe the meeting of opposition parties which is to begin in London within a few hours.
This is not just a semantic issue, it highlights one of the many challenges faced by this very important meeting which was already postponed once and will now be held under the shadow of the ongoing Lal Masjid operation in Islamabad.
An editorial in The Nation, lays out some of the key challenges.
DESPITE the diversion created by the Lal Masjid operation, many in Pakistan are keenly waiting for the outcome of the two-day APC convened by Mian Nawaz Sharif in London. Besides the ARD and MMA it is being attended by the nationalist parties and minority representatives. While Ms Bhutto has declined to attend the meeting despite being in London, she will be represented by a PPP delegation led by Makhdoom Amin Fahim. A committee of PML-N and PPP leaders has reportedly finalised the joint document to be issued at the end of the conference. This is likely to underline commonly agreed points like the restoration of the 1973 constitution as it existed prior to the military take over on October 12, 1999, formation of an interim set up and a neutral Election Commission in consultation with the opposition, an independent judiciary and the return of the exiled leaders.
What remains to be seen is how the participants resolve some of the issues and overcome suspicions that continue to divide them. The MMA has accused Ms Bhutto of trying to broker a power sharing deal with General Musharraf. The PPP, on the other hand, has challenged the religious alliance to resign from the Balochistan cabinet to prove its credentials as an opposition party. The nationalist parties accuse the others of ignoring the key issue of autonomy and want ironclad guarantees on it, while on their way to London, some of the MMA leaders have again condemned the PPP leadership in a veiled manner. To pre-empt criticism by the sort, Makhdoom Amin Fahim categorically ruled out on the eve of the APC any possibility of understanding with General Musharraf. He also maintained that the party would abide by all decisions taken by the APC with consensus.
Those participating in the APC hope to produce an action plan to remove Gen. Musharraf. It is here that the opposition stands badly divided. The PPP disagrees with the proposal to resign from the Assemblies in case the President was to seek election from them. Similarly, it insists on taking part in elections even if they are held under him. Most of the opposition parties, however, take a different stand on the issue. They also favour initiating a countrywide movement to remove the government. The PPP, on the other hand, maintains that nothing should be done to provide an excuse to the government to impose emergency and postpone the elections. Unless the opposition leaders devise an agreed action plan, and the exiled leaders announce a final date of their return, the APC is likely to be considered an uninspiring exercise.
Lets explore some of these points.
Much is, of course, being made of the timing of the Lal Masjid operation and how it might divert diverts attention from this meeting of the opposition. The timing is, indeed, suspicious. But then, given the state of current Pakistan politics, just about any timing would have been suspicious given that the government had let the Lal Masjid militancy brew for so long. The head of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD), Makhdoom Amin Fahim of PPP believes that the timing will affect the APC but is probably not a conspiracy.
Indeed, the distraction - which is very real - may well be the least of the challenges that the assembled leaders will have to face and resolve. The meeting has already been postponed once (in March, because of the Chief Justice issue) and postponing it again woudl not have been well-received. However, the real significance of the Lal Masjid operation is NOT the distraction, it is the very real differences amongst the assembled parties that it brings to fore. The issue is whether they can agree on dealing with religious extremism. It is not at all clear that they can; nor is it clear how their constituencies will react if they do. Tactically, the best approach for them would be unite against the ‘way the operation was carried out’ (on which they can agree) rather than to try to find a consensus on their views about the Lal Masjid and its leadership (on which they may not be able to agree).
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There are also other significant differences within the opposition parties. The only thing that binds them is a desire to oust the Musharraf government, and even on that they seem unsure. Benazir Bhutto is refusing to attend even though she is in London right now. She argues that MMA is not really an opposition party because it is a government partner in two provinces. MMA for its part has raised the issue of whether there are any ‘deals’ between Benazir Bhutto and Pervaiz Musharraf. It has also been argued that if she can ‘talk’ to the government she should also be able to ‘talk’ to MMA. This rift and these mutual doubts are serious but will not be show stoppers, PPP will be represented but not by Benazir Bhutto. If steered rightly, the meeting will focus on what they can agree on rather than what they disagree on.
The real momentum behind the meeting comes from the Lawyers’ Movement in support of the Chief Justice. Till now the opposition parties have, literally, held on the coat tails of the lawyers who are clearly the leaders of this movement. The political reality is that it is the lawyers and not any political party that has captured the public imagination on this issue; not yet. But on the issue of the restoration of the institutional integrity of the judiciary, the parties do agree. The success of this London meeting will depend in great extent of whether they can build on this agreement to craft agreement on other issues, especially on the issue of the uniform and the next election.
And the next election, including the uniform issue, is really what this meeting is really about. The success of this meeting will - and should - be judged by whether the opposition parties can agree on a clear and united strategy on these issues. It is far from clear whether they can. They all have stated a public support for democracy, an opposition to the future of the presidency in uniform, and to transparent elections. However, too many Pakistanis doubt the level of their commitment. The real challenge before the leaders assembling in London is to convince Pakistanis that such doubts are unfounded.
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Will this meeting be able to demonstrate resoundly that such commitment actually exists? Will the parties be able to arrive at and state clearly a common position and a clear strategy on these issues? Will they be able to excite the public and convince them that the parties goal is not simply to get back to power but a deep and real commitment to democracy?
If the meeting is able to do so, it will indeed be historic. If not, it will soon be forgotten; and not because of the Lal Masjid distraction.
Was sent this link last week…was able to watch it only today….Its on google video and the name is ”Zeitgeist”. A very thought provoking commentary…should be watched till the end as some early parts may seem not to be of interest…In the light of this explanation, its high time for our politicians to set aside the differences and not playing into the hands of…http://tinyurl.com/24qhz7
Please comment, if feel like commenting on the movie, only after having seen it in full.
I find it amazing that there is a genuine debate on the validity of the actions of Lal Masjid’s leadership and that these national or regional parties are not united in their condemnation of such people. Yes, the situation was allowed to fester for too long. But can one truly accept a point of view as working for the ‘baqa aur salamatee e Pakistan’ that is vague in how to deal with such situations?
A well written piece - as usual. However, I am not sure if we should be reading too much into this meeting…
Wasim Sb: Looking forward to your website..:)
Adil, you have hit it on the head. Exactly right. The opposition needs to define what it stands FOR. whether they are united or not doe snot matter but peopel want to know what their program is, how they intend to do that, what are there goals. Right now it seems only goal is remove musharraf and then all will be well. We agree that Musharraf should be removed but we want a sense of what happens then. What are they offering in programs. The only person who has a program and an agenda is Imran Khan, but he has no organization and no ability to win large number of seats. BB and NS can win sets but they have no ideas. They just want to grab power a third time each. The moment needs more people with ideas. They need to get support from think tanks and intelellectuals to get real ideas that we can get behind. I hoep they do.
There have been several attempts to divide the opposition in Pak history by military and civilian dictators.
Consider the 1964 Presidential election when Leaguers including Bhutto played the China card and got Bhashani to withdraw his crucial support to Fatima Jinnah. Or in 1969 when the RTC talks were sabotaged with Ayub Khan. Similarly the 1977 agitation and the MRD agitation. The common factor in all of these movements is those who adopted the maximalist stance, ZAB, JI, Asghar Khan, NDP, ended up gaining in the short term and losing in the long term.
That is the historical argument that the players of realpolitik like fazlur rehaman and BB have as a counter argument..that any tehrik would only create the exact opposite situation that the maximalists seek.
Still I suspect the sheer pressure of the black coat movement will force the “doves”/ realpolitik dealers to assent to a hard line if not whole heartedly back it…so liberal and progressive parties like the ANP are no longer able to consider backing Mush because of the events of Karachi and the pressure from it’s own workers…much the same is happening in the ppp it’s workers and it’s voters will react negatively to any deal. While the MMA, may benefit in the short term from the lal masjid operation I don’t see how it can survive politically working with Mush
Meetings are never important but meeting results can be. It all depends if they can agree to something meaningful. If they can then everyone will immediately move from talking about Lal Masjid to talking of this. If they can’t then no one will pay attention anyhow.
I think BB wants this meeting to fail so that she can get the best deal from Mush who is already under pressure. That is why she is not attending even she is in London now.
Good analysis except that I hope that the parties would NOT be able to excite the public Adil Sahab ! For I think we have played emotive politics ( for want of a better word) for too long. In this 60th year we need to take sit down and re-examine a number of key issues such as federalism and provincial autonomy, what do we understand as the ideology of Pakistan and how do we negotiate competing interests that are prevalant in any federation ? I am reading Christophe Jaffrelot’s `Pakistan:Nation, Nationalism and the State” which is a fascniating collection of eassays examining each of the conflicts in Pakistan … after 15 chapters the last chapter is titled “ And yet, Pakistan exists” As a Pakistani I hope the MPC/APC think about the future with some vision…
The Quaid is watching us today, this is a defining moment in creating an alternative, better and ‘Other Pakistan’. As promised a new e-political force is now lvie that aims to bring together Pakistanis across the globe to come together to present their views and ideas on how we can create a better Pakistan. So please visit http://www.otherpakistan.org to state your views on how we can create that alternative, more just Pakistan (make it one of your favourites Raza Rumi saab especially!) The opening post is as below:
My greatest regret is that I only have one life to lose for Pakistan.
A nation build on faith, unity, discipline and the rule of law has decimated into a nation where the rule of law is selectively applied and the writ of state nonexistent. Pakistan is the muslim homeland envisaged by the great Allama Iqbal tasked with solving the issue of bread for the poor. So a nation built for the poor has become a nation where the poor die a new death each day whilst the rich and powerful, the feudals and the fatcats of industry continue to prosper like never before. The Pakistan of today is one where the poor subsidise the rich, where clean drinking water is still a dream and where the landed elite and feudals govern their personal fiefdoms as demigods.
Pakistan has become the capital of corruption; both financial and moral. No institution has been allowed for develop and flourish except for the army hence we are told with great fanfare that the three A’s of ALLAH, America and the Army reign supreme when only ALLAH should do so. Pakistan is a proud nuclear state with the best army in the world. Yet even this great institution has been slandered against and disgraced by its senior generals and their lust for power. One wonders sometimes whether we live in Pakistan or ‘Faujistan’ given Pakistan has lived under military rule for most of her existence yet even then our great army has failed to establish the writ of the state and good law and order save for the VIP’s and their entourages in government and their clones enjoying power and privilege in the upper echelons of power in our great bureaucracy.
It is true that Pakistan has failed the Quaid so far and that the despondency and gloom we feel in Pakistan is only too real. However we must never lose the hope of a better tomorrow and of a better Pakistan. Other Pakistan is a website that aims to bring together Pakistanis inside and outside of Pakistan by providing a forum for discussion and debate on how to create the ‘Other Pakistan’ by bringing together as many diverse voices as possible. It is so important to get dialogue started and to open up a space where different ideas and world views can be shared and conversation started so that we can work towards building a better, more just Pakistan. The Quaid and his vision must guide us, so let us together create the Other Pakistan.
I am Wasim Arif and this is my Pakistan.
Wasim Arif - Founder & Editor of Other Pakistan, 22nd June 2007, 20.29 PK Time