Adil Najam
Our ATP Poll on ‘What events from 2008 will define Pakistan in 2009?’ continues. However, as promised, we bring you a second companion ATP Poll which asks a related but different question: What do you think might be the big news coming out of Pakistan in 2009? (You can mark multiple choices).
If you have not voted on our original Year in Review Poll yet, please do vote here.
This is a blog poll - and its should be taken no more seriously than that. Our purpose is to facilitate discussion and reflection; there is very little about it that is scientific. We have come up with a list of 15 possible news stories that could become big in 2009. Some of these, if they were to transpire, would be desirable developments; some clearly not. These may not be the most ‘likely’ stories of 2009. They are merely our list of some interesting possibilities in multiple domains. The list is, by definition, subjective. One hopes it is also reflective and will lead to reflection by our readers. We have no doubt that there will be other stories that could and will become big in 2009. Fell welcome to discuss those in the comments section.
Our ATP Poll list of 15, in no particular order, includes the following:
- Stock markets in Pakistan, as measured by the Karachi Stock Exchange Index (KSE), have been in a deep and unending slump. Could the Pakistan stock markets make a big rebound in 2009 back to the dizzying heights it reached in early 2008?
- The names of a number of Pakistanis have been mentioned in recent years for the Nobel Peace Prize (including Abdul Sattar Edhi, Aitizaz Ahsan, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Asma Jehangir). Might a Pakistani Civil Society leader will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009?
- There is a virtual civil war going on in and around Swat in Pakistan’s Norther regions where the so-called ‘Taliban’ insurgents have taken over Pakistani territory and are killing Pakistani citizens and solders. Will the Pakistani forces succeed in suppressing this insurgency in 2009?
- Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been remarkably quiet since he resigned as President. The rumor-mill in Islamabad suggests that he may contemplate a return to Pakistani politics. Could this happen?
- The tension between the ruling PPP and tthe PML(N) government in the Punjab continues to make headlines. Could the PMN(N) government in the Punjab fall in 2009?
- The MQM-PPP coalition in Sindh seems to make die-hard supporters of both parties uncomfortable. Would this arrangement collapse in 2009 and, if so, with what repercussions?
- Could this be the year when a major new political party with mass support will emerge in Pakistan, possibly out of the recent civil society uprisings and media awareness?
- Talk of another martial law (or equivalent) waiting around the corner is forever current in Pakistan. Could this happen in 2009?
- Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP government at the Center seems very strong right now, with or without the coalition with PML(N). Will it remain strong in 2009, or could the government fall?
- Right now there is much (too much) talk of escalating military and political tensions between India and Pakistan. Could this turn into an all-out war between India and Pakistan in 2009?
- The continuing drone attacks by the US on Pakistani territory remain a major sore point between the two countries and a source of angst amongst ordinary Pakistanis. With a new US President ready to take office, might 2009 see an end of US drone attacks on Pakistani territory?
- The scandal concerning Justice Dogar’s daughter continues to make waves. Will Justice Dogar be able to continue as Chief Justice through 2009?
- The Justice Movement built around Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry continues, even if with less steam. Could 2009 see Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry reinstated (again)?
- Pakistan cricket has been in the doldrums for way too long now. Could 2009 be the year of the comeback for Pakistan cricket?
- The energy crisis has been deepening in Pakistan. But so has the realization that something has to be done about it. Could 2009 be the year that sees the end of load-shedding in Pakistan?
A major twist , change and major review in Internal & Foriegn Policy is required, with positive approach of implementation.
We need to strive and bank on our own natural reserves more.
Access to Free education, free health , provision of basic amneties a must.
Very interesting poll indeed
But I look at the current results on this and the current results on your other poll and see a disturbing trend. The things that people think are most important in the first poll (extremism, talibanization and drone attacks from US) are also some of the things that people think are least likely to change from this poll!
probably this is true, but it is sad.
@Nihari
“the more things change…the more they remain the same”
Wow! How thoughtful…!
I would like some consistency as well. Just as Jauhar said, I would like to see democratic system continue through with all this shortcomings and flaws.
Looking at the poll results so far, I am disappointed to see the setback to democratic process emerging as the theme for the projected big news coming out of Pakistan in 2009.
Although I can appreciate the reasons for such apprehension, I sincerely hope that democracy continues in Pakistan in year 2009 and beyond despite all its flaws and shortcomings.
I think there is a VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD that Dogar will be replaced as CJ and also that there will be a govt change in Punjab (although it could go either way - a PPP-PML(Q) coalition or a PML(Q+N) coalition.
Less likelihood, but I will not be surprised if we see Musharraf back in politics this year.
You need a ‘None of the above’ option. I don’t see any of these things happening.
‘Pakistan becomes a dominant cricket power again’
Ha! By playing only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe?
None of the above…the more things change…the more they remain the same
Nice poll. Makes one think.
I do think that if we were to get a new political party out of civil society with maybe people like Aitizaz Ahsan and even Imran Khan harnessing the new younger people who have become active and with their media recognition then that would be teh most dramatic thing to happen. Kind of like when PPP was born after the Ayub era.