According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
Good Move
Was Zardari drunk when he agreed to this? This is really the worst possible move. A nightmare if you ask me. Who honestly thinks that these taliban guys will overnight turn into peaceful and reasonable people now that they have Swat. Their mission is to talibanise all of Pakistan, and all of Middle East, and ultimately the entire world. Sounds ludicurous but that’s exactly what they want. How can we offer these people a legitimate base in the heart of Pakistani terriotry?
The situation in SWAT is of course very complex, but how can the Pakistani government pass this off as a “compromise”?
Basically the government is giving the local Taliban free reign over the area in an exchange not to spread south.
Anyone that actually thinks this will prevent further insurgence into the central areas of the country is not only naive, but ignorant of the underlying problems facing Pakistani society.
We keep hearing “what else can be done?” This implies that the government has been exhausting all possible avenues for inhibiting the insurgency. This is obviously not the case as a simple radio station cannot be blocked, and any child can tell you where to find these makeshift Qazi courts that the army cannot seem to locate.
At least give us some appearance at an attempt to compromise by stating that a return to Sharia law will include restoration of schools and prosecution of militants who are in violation of committing atrocities against the defenseless people of the region. Of course we have yet to hear any sort of official statement from either party that any semblance of Islamic peaceful living with security and education will be ensured.
Unfortunately, this agreement will undoubtedly do nothing to help the “deeply conservative” local families. These families may want to live under Islamic law, but sadly the definition of Sharia is no longer what used to result in speedy justice before Maulana Fazlullah and his supporters took hostage the very ideals of Islam that the local people want their lives to be based upon. The already fragile social infrastructure has been plowed into the ground with the recent violence, and now with this new agreement, it has been buried under a corrupt and selfish government.
Frankly, I am ambivalent about this new development. It’s mind-boggling to think that we have come to the point where the state is giving in to the demands of the radicals, but at the same time, I can’t say with certainty that the government should keep on fighting with full force, simply because I don’t know what it is like for getting your family and neighbors killed around you.
My hope is that this will slow down the fighting, allow the REAL population (i.e. not the criminal imported Arabs) will take more and more control, and drive the militants out. Although, I’m not even sure that this arrangement will last. It’s quite unpredictable.
This argument about Pakistani army not able to do counter insurgency is nothing more than pandering to the men in khaki.
I ask you, if that is the case then why is it that the Pakistan army does not target the qazi courts that have been established all over Swat? The location is known by common people, as they take their complaints there and the venue is guarded by the Taliban and has Taliban qazis dispensing justice, but our soldiers dont seem to find them?
Why is it that most of the schools that got destroyed, were destroyed during curfews? when the order was to shoot at sight?
Why is it that jamming the FM station of Mullah radio has become such an obstacle for our army when any engineer with the basic understanding of this system will tell you that blocking it is not a big deal?
Why is it that our army refuses to engage the Taliban through infantry and prefers to lob mortar shells in civilian areas?
They dont need extra hands to do counter insurgency, it is their JOB to defend this country and their supposed incompetence can not be a reason why a people should be made subjected to rules that they did not opt for.
The real thing is that our security establishment still has not given up on the idea of the strategic depth. We are still dreaming of ruling Afghanistan by proxy, but if someone is listening then Muslim Khan recently said that this shariah is not just for Swat but for the whole of Pakistan and the world.
I know giving up pushtoon land would be an easier choice for a general stationed in Rawalpindi. But the question is whether our generals have the control over these guys to stop them from proliferating into the south of Pakistan, i.e. the REAL Pakistan.
The terrorists in Jhang and the dacoits in Kashmore would be looking with interest at the rolling over of our political leadership.
Taliban franchises are on offer, any thug interested?