Adil Najam
Benazir Bhutto says that it is now time to take the ‘risk’ of going back to Pakistan. Gen. Musharraf says that he expects to be elected for another term as President. Pundits seem sure that a deal is not only on the cards but is done. Some do wonder if it is merely another detraction tactic by the military government, but others argue that it may be a step – even if a tiny one – towards democracy.
But while most have been caught in the ‘Deal or No Deal’ question, we at ATP asked our readers whether such a deal – if made – would be good for Pakistan or not. As many as 654 of our readers spoke. And quite unambiguously.
In response to our question – “What would a benazir-Musharraf Deal Mean for Pakistan?” – as many of 84% (547 votes) of respondents say that it would either make no difference (‘Same old stuff’; 41%, 268 votes) or would actually make things worse (43%, 279 votes). Only 16% (16%, 107 votes) believe that such a deal would actually makes things better.
The result is surprising in how stark, clear and unambiguous it is. This is unusual for ATP Polls which have usually tend to show a divided viewpoint. The one exception had been the Poll on Chief Justice issue. Most other Polls – on ‘Grading General Musharraf‘, on ‘Who did the Most Good for Pakistan‘, on ‘What Gen. Musharraf Should Do about his Uniform‘ – had yielded rather divided views.
So, what is going on here? Why this sudden unanimity amongst our readers who tend not to be in such agreement on most issues?
Could it be just a high level of cynicism? Or is it that our readers tend to be more urban and come from cohorts that have tended not to be major BB supporters? Or – as some have said – those who come here are from a so-called ‘drawing room’ class? Or is it that our readers have a better sense of the pulse of the nation that political pundits do?
Yes, people who visit this website including those who are supporting BB are NOT representative of BB’s tradiational support base. But when I look at the Poll Wasiq has pointed out which shows only 30 pc support Mush and then look at all the other polls on this website on Mush then it seems that the results are very similar on how many support Mush. So then maybe this sites results are as representative as that other poll.
The sample of the ATP poll is, of course, by no means representative of Pakistani public opinion. I think we need a poll of those polled here to determine class, geographic origin, subject of study etc. etc.
After many exhausting arguments here, I have reached the conclusion that most people who blog are from two cities, Karachi and Lahore and are studying (or have studied) in the U.S. or U.K.
Considering that Mai Phatan from Jaranwala and her sons hardly get the chance to come to College in the U.S., the social, economic and cultural bias of most blog visitors is clear from the start.
Also, consiodering that both Mush and BB have denied there is a deal and even Najam Sethi (the conceptualizer and propagator of the deal) has acknowledged that BB has not
agreed to allow Mush in uniform, the fundamental premise of the ATP poll that there is a “deal” is incorrect.
I firmly believe there is no deal but rather negotiation that is being presented as a deal.
A representative poll of how the Pakistani public feels appears below:
“Musharraf’s Popularity As Prez And Army Chief Dips, Now Only 30 Pc Support Him Holding Twin Posts”
April 27, 2007
A new poll conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) in all the four provinces of Pakistan has found that most Pakistanis feel that President Pervez Musharraf should not continue with both his offices of Army Chief and President simultaneously.
The poll, findings of which were released yesterday, was conducted from February 12 to March 7, 2007, questioning 3997 adult men and women from around 256 villages and 144 urban locations in 65 districts in all four provinces of the country.
According to the survey findings, around 56 percent of respondents said that Musharraf should not hold both offices, while around 30 percent favoured him continuing in both posts.
The opposition to the President’s dual role increased by around 26 percent compared with the IRI’s June 2006 survey on the same question.
In the previous poll, Musharraf as President-cum-Army-Chief had enjoyed the support of 49 percent of respondents, reported the Daily Times.
To the question of whether Musharraf should be re-elected as the President by the current parliament, around 48 percent of respondents disagreed with the idea while 43 percent favoured it.
Besides, 42 percent of the respondents said that the ruling coalition’s performance was not good enough for them to warrant re-election.
Some 54.2 percent of respondents said they approved of the way Musharraf was doing his job, but this was nine percent less than in the previous survey in September 2006. In Punjab, his support dropped 22 percent, as only 54 percent of Punjab residents questioned in the poll thought that he was handling his job properly, as compared to 76 percent in the previous survey.
To the question of which leader could effectively handle Pakistan’s problems, 32 percent of respondents said Gen Musharraf was the most suitable leader, followed by Benazir Bhutto (25.4 percent) and Nawaz Sharif (15.1 percent).
Less than five percent of respondents considered all other political leaders – including Altaf Hussain, Imran Khan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Maulana Fazlur Rehman – as leaders who could solve their problems.
Most agreed that Benazir Bhutto (65 percent) and Nawaz Sharif (63.3 percent) should be allowed to return to Pakistan. More than 50 percent of Pakistan Muslim League voters also favoured the exiled leaders’ return.
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BB will do anything to be in power. Her career is dangling due to pending cases in Swiss courts which she is afraid to loose..I wonder if Mr 10% will be able to show the same performance or the illness has weakened him.
For Musharraf deal or no deal, both are equally unfavorable. He used to call her corrupt. Even if deal succeeds and BB gets the power it will be very short term … but BB will go even for this , to accumulate more wealth; dont know for whom..she already has enuff atleast for her two generations
I think Expat has a point.
If BB was returning really without a deal (an act of courage) or because there were massive demonstrations in Pakistan for her return then I would have had respect for her move and would have voted differently. But for me having a ‘deal’ reduces her stature and does not increase it.
Please initiate another poll with the following question.
Would BB make more difference by coming back as a result of popular demand or as a result of a deal.